IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR,
CHILE FACES CHALLENGES FROM SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AT HOME, AND FROM BORDER DISPUTES
ABROAD
THE
YEAR AHEAD
2012
saw the largest student demonstrations in CHILEAN history, as well as a scandal
in the police force and high-profile resignations in the government of
President Sebastián Piñera. With presidential elections in the offing, 2013
promises to be another year of political and social upheaval in the narrow
Pacific nation.
DOMESTIC
POLITICS
CHILEANS
will go to the polls in November 2013 to elect their next president. Two
candidates lead from the right: former Defense Minister Andrés Allamand, and
former Public Works Minister Laurence Golborne.
Though
she has not yet declared whether she will seek the presidency, Socialist former
president Michelle Bachelet is the clear front-runner from the left—and indeed,
in the race as a whole. As of the New Year, 54 percent of poll respondents would choose Bachelet to be their next
president.
If
she decides to run, Bachelet—and any other presidential hopefuls—will have to
officially declare candidacy by the end of March.
Since
leaving the presidency in 2006, Bachelet has traveled the world building
international goodwill as the first Undersecretary-General and Executive
Director of UN Women, giving her a likely foreign policy advantage against her
opponents should she decide to enter the race.
FOREIGN
POLICY
In
CHILEAN foreign policy, 2013 will bring closure on the border dispute with PERU,
but may see a rise in tensions over boundaries between BOLIVIA and CHILE.
In
December the International Court of Justice at The Hague heard arguments from PERU
and CHILE on the disputed maritime borders between the two nations’ waters. PERU
claims a larger share of the valuable coastal fishing waters, arguing that a
1950 pact with CHILE should be invalidated.
Background Information:
Read chapter: CHILES NEVER-ENDING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS at:
Read chapter: CLAIMS ON PATAGONIA at:
CHILE CLAIMS LAND FROM ARGENTINA
CHILEAN
leaders have promised to respect the Hague court’s decision, but a loss would
be a blow to national pride. CHILE has managed to keep claims from PERU and BOLIVIA
for territorial redress at bay since the 1800s.
CONTROL OF FRESHWATER SUPPLIES: BOLIVIA’S LEVERAGE OVER
CHILE?
Old
tensions between BOLIVIA and CHILE over borders may flare up in 2013. BOLIVIA
has long desired to reclaim lost access to the Pacific Ocean from CHILE.
BOLIVIAN President Evo Morales may be planning to harness the power of water, specifically the
freshwater flowing from BOLIVIA into CHILE in the Silala River. Most of the
water in this river that originates in BOLIVIA is consumed in CHILE, and could
be used as leverage against CHILE.
BOLIVIAN
Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca told the press that his government’s ‘total
disposition’ to engage in dialogue with CHILE.
ENERGY
AND ECONOMY
In
addition to being vulnerable to water scarcities, CHILE struggles to secure
enough energy to fuel its growing OECD economy.
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| Santiago de Chile |
CHILE’S
growth prospects also depend on CHINA, where demand for primary commodities has
fueled a boom in CHILE and elsewhere in SOUTH AMERICA. If the CHINESE economy
experiences the ‘hard landing’ some see beginning, the sharp drop in demand for
CHILEAN copper would reduce GDP growth rates.
Several
projects that would boost domestic energy production and, supporters argue,
increase growth, have been delayed due to protest from social movements or
failure to secure approval from the National Environmental Commission (Comisión
Nacional del Medio Ambiente—CONAMA).
CONAMA
issues environmental impact assessments (Sistema de Evaluación de Impacto
Ambiental—SEIA) that determine whether new projects can begin. At the end of
2012, CONAMA approved only seven hydroelectric projects for 2013. The
seven projects are all for small-scale hydroelectric plants, with a combined
capacity of 86 MW.
Larger
projects are still awaiting approval, and would undoubtedly provoke opposition
from environmental activists. In 2012, planning for the massive Hydroaysén
hydroelectric dams in Patagonia stalled after intense backlash and protests from activist groups.
SOCIAL
MOVEMENTS
Activists
had a big year in 2012, and the momentum of social movements promises to
continue into 2013, driven by high-profile issues like education reform and
presidential elections.
The
2013 budget includes record education spending. Student activists, however, say
the measures Piñera’s government has taken do not go far enough, and they have
promised to continue mobilizing in favor of less expensive higher education.
The
violence that sometimes accompanied education protests in 2012 threatened to
alienate some of CHILE’S middle classes. 2013 will be a test of how the student
movement can continue its high-profile demonstrations while retaining support
among the non-student population.
Another
case of a violent minority threatening the success of a social movement is that
of the Mapuche indigenous movement. The Mapuche community’s struggle for rights
over traditional lands has been marred by a series of violent attacks on
landowners.
And
elderly landowning couple in Araucanía, SOUTHERN CHILE was killed in an arson
attack on 4 January. President Piñera announced that he would apply the
country’s strict and controversial anti-terror bill to the violence in the
Araucanía region. Piñera told the press that ‘this fight is not with the
Mapuche community, but with a criminal minority.’
If
the violence in La Araucanía continues it will damage Piñera’s already-low
approval ratings and attract further scrutiny from international critics of the
government’s treatment of the Mapuche community.
EXPECT
THE UNEXPECTED
As
always in CHILE, nature may hold surprises in the year to come. At the end of
December the Copahue volcano on the CHILE-ARGENTINA border started spewing ash.
The nation has over 2,000 volcanoes and is also vulnerable to earthquakes and
tsunamis. A recent report found that only 59 percent of the houses destroyed
in the 2010 earthquake have been rebuilt.
By Amelia Josephson
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