Tuesday, 19 March 2013

CYPRUS'S FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS






COULD IT BE THAT THE TROIKA IN REALITY FOCUSES ON TAKING CONTROL OF CYPRUS’S PROCLAIMED HYDROCARBON FINDINGS? 

Could it be that the bigger picture of this imposed "crisis" on CYPRUS is the geopolitical game of the "troika," made up of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure recently found gas recourses around the southern shores of CYPRUS, in order to break the quasi gas monopoly of the RUSSIAN Federation. This implies the crash of the CYPRIOT Banks and a further increase of CYPRUS’S debts, so that the government, under the fear of financial collapse, basically gives away its natural recourses to the “troika”. This is a financial as well as energy war is against opposing entities such as RUSSIA, and not the pitiful half-dozen citizens of CYPRUS. One should not forget that CYPRUS is RUSSIA’S “LUXEMBURG”, when it comes to offshore financial dealings, something the EU has been opposing for some time now, despite the fact that the EU seems to turn a blind eye on LUXEMBURG, on the same topic.


See also:

CYPRUS DRESS REHEARSAL: FIRST SUCCESSFUL COMPULSORY DEPOSITOR ACQUISITION IN CYPRUS


CYPRUS RESCUE IN CHAOS AS BANK LEVY REJECTED 

BRUSSELS' GRIP SLIPPED ON ITS EUROZONE RESCUE STRATEGY AS CYPRUS REJECTED THE CONDITIONS FOR ITS €10BN (£8.6BN) BAIL-OUT, AND APPEARED TO TURN TO RUSSIA FOR HELP INSTEAD.

Via Telegraph UK

In a vote in CYPRIOT parliament last night, not a single politician voted for the proposed bank levy, which was designed to raise the €5.8bn needed to secure a vital €10bn cash injection from EUROPE and the IMF. President Nicos Anastasiades, led the rebellion by abstaining. There were 19 in abstentions and 36 votes against.
Mr Anastasiades telephoned Angela Merkel ahead of a crucial debate on the botched bail-out to tell her the results would be negative. He told reporters that politicians “feel and think it isn’t just and that it’s against the interest of CYPRUS.”

CYPRIOT FINANCE MINISTER IN RUSSIA FOR CONSULTATIONS
Meanwhile, the CYPRIOT finance ministry said its boss had gone to Moscow. Government sources also said the CYPRIOT government was considering asking Midde East investors for help. Cypriot banks will be closed for the fourth day today. The Royal Air Force flew €1m in cash to CYPRUS for army personnel.
See:
RUSSIA AND THE CYPRUSGAMBIT
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/russia-and-cyprus.html and
CYPRUS AT ODDS WITH BRITAIN OVER SOVEREIGN BASE AREAS AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT FOR THE REGION
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/cyprus-emerging-geo-strategic-key.html

EUROPE WILL GIVE CYPRUS A BRIEF AND FINAL CHANCE TO RETHINK AND VOTE AGAIN
The European Central Bank said it would continue to provide liquidity to CYPRUS under existing rules.
But the confusion caused equities to fall across EUROPE while traders ditched the euro amid fears of a fresh banking crisis. In ITALY the MIB dropped 4.6pc, the FRENCH CAC fell 1.3pc, the GERMAN DAX slid 0.8pc. The worse hit was SPAIN’S IBEX fell 2.2pc as traders feared its banks would be first to suffer any contagion. The yield on 10-year gilts fell to their lowest level this year as traders sought a safe haven. Luis de Guindos, SPAIN’S finance minister, scrambled to reassure investors. “Deposits of under €100,000 are sacred from the point of view of the bloc’s rules and SPANISH rules,” he said. Luc Frieden, LUXEMBOURG’S finance minister, told Bloomberg: “We will make sure that deposits in EUROPE are safe.” He added that the fisasco could “not be seen as destroying the confidence that people have” in the EUROPEAN financial system.

But analysts were not convinced. “There is no precedent for what would happen if CYPRUS rejected the conditions,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank wrote in a note. “Our best guess is that EUROPE would give CYPRUS a brief and final chance to rethink and vote again.”
President Anastasiades has called an emergency meeting of political leaders this morning, the fifth day since the government and the euro group thrashed out the rescue plan. The original plan, backed by the EU, the EUROPEAN Central Bank and the IMF, was for CYPRUS to raise €5.8bn from a tax of 6.75pc on all desposits under €100,000 and 9.9pc above that level. The parliamentary vote was delayed twice while changes were inserted to protect deposits of under €20,000. However, the move has been widely condemned as tearing up the EU’s pledge to guarantee deposits up to €100,000.

SERIOUS BLUNDER BY EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY BLACKMAILING THE GOVERNMENT OF CYPRUS
Sharon Bowles, chairman of the EUROPEAN Parliament’s economic committee, said the ECB’s authority had been damaged. “Central banks have to be tough sometimes, but what hope is there for accountability when they seemingly force decisions like this at gunpoint with no regard for financial legislation,” she said. “We must question ECB independence on supervision. If anything this strengthens the case for more democratic accountability.”
The former Governor of the Central Bank of CYPRUS, Anthanasios Orphanides, said there had been a “very serious blunder by EUROPEAN governments that are essentially blackmailing the government of CYPRUS to confiscate the money that belongs rightfully to depositors in the banking sector in CYPRUS...What we are witnessing is the slow death of the EUROPEAN Project.” Gervais Williams of Miton Capital Partners said: “My worry is that the CYPRUS announcement will change the behaviour of large depositors. And that is the thin end of a very worrying wedge.

On 7th Jan 2013 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring published the following:

DE FACTO LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY:

CYPRUS MAKES BIG CONCESSIONS FOR BAILOUT
CYPRUS wants help from the EUROPEAN UNION'S bailout fund. But the price for the billions in emergency aid money is high. The country will effectively lose its sovereignty.

“TROIKA” WILL ESSENTIALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE MEDITERRANEAN ISLAND, AND SUBSEQUENTLY ITS NATURAL GAS RESOURCES!

Dimitris Christofias ( at that time President of CYPRUS ) had a serious look on his face as he turned to the cameras and spoke of what a "gut-wrenching" decision it was, but added that it was also a "necessary evil." The CYPRIOT president was not giving his people good news.
His staff realized how bad it would be when Christofias, in his televised address, reminded viewers of his country's darkest hour, the TURKISH invasion of northern CYPRUS in 1974.
Although CYPRUS is not about to suffer the same fate, it is already clear that in return for billions of Euros for the debt-ridden country from the EUROPEAN bailout fund, the "troika," made up of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will essentially take control of the Mediterranean island.

Background Information: 

EUROPEAN UNION ENERGY STRATEGY

The EUROPEAN UNION is also supportive of the aforementioned, since it agonizes for its energy security and a potential discovery of new reserves by a Eurozone country such as CYPRUS further strengthens its energy planning. FRENCH and GERMAN companies, being the dominant players in the EUROPEAN energy corporate environment, estimates they will be able to acquire concessions and strengthen their businesses worldwide. EUROPE will face an issue with natural gas imports sometime after 2020 due to rising consumption, decreasing North Sea reserves and increase in demand by the rest of the world.

Background Information:

The CYPRIOT government and representatives of the troika negotiated for almost five months over the terms of a bailout package, worth at least €17.5 billion ($22.8 billion). The negotiations produced the draft version of a 30-page Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), in which the troika dictates to CYPRUS what steps it will have to take in the coming years, down to the smallest detail.

BLAMING THE BANKS
The euro rescuers also addressed government revenues. The tax on fine-cut tobacco will go up drastically from €60 to €150 per kilogram, while the beer tax will increase to €6 per degree of alcohol and hectoliter. The troika also believes that a tax increase of 7 cents per liter is appropriate for diesel fuel and gasoline.

Citizens will be especially hard-hit by the planned 2-percent increase in the value-added tax, bringing it up to 19 percent. The troika (IMF, ECB and World Bank) is also calling for cuts in the healthcare sector, as well as reduced pensions.

Background Information: 

IMF

Christofias left no doubt as to who he blames for the disaster, saying: "It's true that the decisions of bank executives and the miserable control by the CYPRIOT CENTRAL bank have cost CYPRUS billions of EUR." The amount of the aid package corresponds almost to the country's entire economic output in a year. According to the troika's plan, by 2016 CYPRUS'S national budget will be cleaned up enough that the country can hopefully make do without new debt.

CREDITORS TO TAKE LOSSES FIRST
CYPRIOT banks are also expected to make a contribution. Crisis-ridden institutions will no longer be supported solely by injections of cash from the EUROPEAN bailout fund. This time, the banks' creditors are also expected to pay up. "With the goal of minimizing the cost to taxpayers, bank shareholders and junior debt holders will take losses before state-aid measures are granted," the MoU draft reads. This means that creditors of CYPRIOT banks won't just be able to withdraw their money. Instead, their claims will be converted into bank shares.


In taking this step, the troika is avoiding a potential embarrassment. Substantial sums of RUSSIAN capital are deposited into CYPRIOT banks, and some of it is probably of dubious origin. It would be difficult to explain to the EUROPEAN public why its taxes are being used to rescue wealthy oligarchs. Now, people who had previously invested their wealth into yachts, cars and football clubs will be forcibly turned into bank owners.

Background Information: See 11 Feb 2012 article published by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring, http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html :


MUCH NEEDED ECO- FINANCIAL BOOST FOR CYPRUS AFTER RUSSIA’S BAILOUT, BUT WITH GEO STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 
During 2009 and 2010, CYPRUS and ISRAEL discovered enormous natural gas deposits off their shores in the Mediterranean Sea. And in late 2011 NOBLE ENERGY, the firm contracted by CYPRUS with exploring for gas in its waters, announced a discovery of gas estimated at 5-8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas there. This discovery could not come at a better time for CYPRUS, which in 2011 endured a slippage in its fiscal ratings, was shut out of international capital markets, hit by a large munitions blast, and was finally forced to accept a RUSSIAN bailout. All told, the discoveries by both countries amount to 33 trillion cubic feet of gas (ca. 1 trillion cubic meters). And the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Levant Basin, where most of these discoveries have occurred, may hold 122 TCF (3.4 tcm).


TURKISH THREATS DEEPLY DISTURB CYPRUS AND RUSSIA
However, TURKEY’S threats against CYPRUS and ISRAEL due to their exploration and drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean caused concern in RUSSIA. Moscow recently organized a large loan for CYPRUS to sustain it against a crisis should GREECE default because so many RUSSIAN accounts are held in CYPRUS’ banks and then reinvested in RUSSIA or used to launder the elite’s money by cycling it out of RUSSIA into the global banking system. Clearly, Moscow cannot allow CYPRUS to go under. TURKISH threats therefore deeply disturb both CYPRUS and RUSSIA. 

CYPRUS FUNCTIONS AS AN OFFSHORE FINANCIAL CENTER FOR RUSSIA, 
At the same time, CYPRUS will have to rebuild its financial sector in the coming years, along with drastically improving regulations and intensifying the fight against money laundering and tax evasion.
The president wasn't willing to end his address without giving his fellow CYPRIOTS at least some words of comfort and hope. After the TURKISH invasion, he said, the country was rebuilt. And added, today Cyprus can hope for a new "economic miracle."

Parts of above article has been adapted from Christian Reiermann and Markus Dettmer via DS

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