AZERBAIJAN AND ITS GEOPOLITICS

AZERI DYNASTY ALLIED TO USA – TAPS OIL RICHES TO AVOID ASSAD FATE

Source: Bloomberg

Less than 500 miles northeast of SYRIA, another secular Muslim dynasty is clinging to its fifth decade in power amid increasing calls for greater freedom and less corruption.

What AZERBAIJAN President Ilham Aliyev has that his counterpart Bashar al-Assad doesn’t is strong U.S. relations and a steady stream of oil cash to temper the opposition.

Aliyev, 51, is seeking to extend his family’s rule in an Oct. 9 election, his third since succeeding his father in a disputed vote a decade ago. Bordering TURKEY and IRAN, the former SOVIET province of 9 million mostly Shiite Muslims is what the U.S. ambassador calls a “steadfast” ally, handling about 30 percent of all non-military NATO shipments into AFGHANISTAN and operating the only non-RUSSIAN outlet for CASPIAN oil flows to world markets.

With the opposition united for the first time behind a single challenger, Camil Hasanli, thousands of people rallied in the capital Baku to demand Aliyev’s resignation. That was the largest demonstration against the government since 2005, when the opposition tried to replicate UKRAINE’S Orange Revolution after disputed parliamentary elections.

“The potential for contagion from the Middle East can’t be ruled out,” said Kate Mallinson, senior analyst at London-based political risk evaluator GPW. “There are a lot of disgruntled people on the street because there aren’t opportunities, but rising incomes for the nascent middle class in the short term mean that any regime change is unlikely.”

BP, CHEVRON

Buoyed by the third-largest oil reserves in the former SOVIET UNION and $40 billion of investment from BP Plc and its partners, Aliyev is betting he can overcome protests and avoid the fate of other Muslim autocrats such as Assad, who’s embroiled in a 2 1/2-year civil war.

A constant reminder of the source of Aliyev’s power, a lone oil rig toils away on the horizon from Baku’s lavish seaside villas. Beyond view, more like it are drilling 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) into the world’s largest lake to feed the BP-led pipeline that terminates on TURKEY’S Mediterranean shore. Then-U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman joined Aliyev in 2005 to inaugurate the 1,100-mile link, which is partly owned by U.S.- based Chevron Corp  and Conoco Phillips.

While Aliyev has used some of the country’s oil riches to transform Baku’s concrete skyline into a glimmering metropolis with its iconic Flame Towers and a billion-dollar cultural center, his government is still ranked by Transparency International and Reporters Without Borders as one of the most corrupt and repressive in the world.

DUBAI MANSIONS

The Washington Post reported in 2010, citing Dubai property records, that Aliyev’s only son, then 12, bought nine waterfront mansions on the Palm Jumeirah man-made island for a total of $44 million. Aliyev has never denied the report and his son is still a minor. Hasanli, the opposition candidate, was attacked with a bottle by an Aliyev loyalist for trying to bring up the report during a televised debate last month.

“Everyone is aware of the vast wealth that the presidential family has,” said Anna Walker, an analyst at Control Risks, a London-based advisory group. “But by managing to distribute that wealth among key officials Aliyev has pretty much ensured that any dissatisfaction there is isn’t allowed to build up.”

‘NOT INFERIOR’

The presidential press service, which also communicates for the Aliyev family, didn’t respond to four phone calls and three e-mails in the past week. Aliyev called the fight against corruption a priority on Sept. 30, saying “we should get rid of this malady,” state news service Azartac said.

“Freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly — all these freedoms exist in AZERBAIJAN,” Aliyev told his ruling party’s congress June 7. “For us, the development of democracy is the main goal. Today, AZERBAIJAN is not inferior to anyone in terms of democratic development.”

The AZERI leader won 77 percent and 87 percent of the official tally in his two electoral victories, in 2003 and 2008, which were deemed neither free nor fair by U.S. and EU observers. In 2009, he pushed through constitutional changes to abolish term limits and this April closed the Free Thought University, a project partly funded by the U.S. and U.K. to promote democracy and human rights.

U.S. INTERESTS

Richard Morningstar,

The U.S., which would like to see more democratic and free-market reforms in AZERBAIJAN, has other strategic interests in the region that need to be taken into account when dealing with Aliyev, according to Matthew Bryza, the U.S.’s ambassador to AZERBAIJAN in 2010-2011.

“The U.S. also has interests in security and economic cooperation and energy,” Bryza, who now heads the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense Studies, said by phone Sept. 24 from Istanbul. “So just because we may be disappointed with the speed of reform, with the development of free and fair elections in the country, it does not mean U.S. officials should stop serving the AMERICAN public by ignoring the full range of U.S. interests.”

‘STALWART PARTNER’

Bryza’s successor, Richard Morningstar, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during confirmation hearings last year that the U.S. “has long recognized AZERBAIJAN as a stalwart partner on international security.”

Background Information:  

Richard Morningstar

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/03/hostile-takeover.html

SIGNIFICANCE OF RICHARD MORNINGSTAR’S NOMINATION AS U.S. AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN

With its pro-WESTERN foreign policy, AZERBAIJAN is strategically important for U.S. and ISRAELI interests in the GREATER MIDDLE EAST and in the post-Soviet space. Ensuring AZERBAIJAN’S future as a secular, independent state should be a key priority for ISRAEL and the UNITED STATES. It is likely that the new U.S. administration will intensify efforts to support AZERBAIJAN’S independence and territorial integrity in order to position it under NATO’s security umbrella and to protect the strategic WESTERN oil infrastructure in the CASPIAN basin. Richard Morningstar’s 2012 nomination as U.S. Ambassador to AZERBAIJAN was a strategic move aimed to revive and push forward U.S. diplomacy in the SOUTH CAUCASUS and CASPIAN basin.

Read below extracts from

“COMPLEXITY-OF-EASTERN-MED-ENERGY-GAMES”

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR AND THE USA’S GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA

In July 2011 Washington joined the GREEK energy game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew to Athens with energy on her mind. That was clear by the fact she brought along Special Envoy for EURASIAN Energy, Richard Morningstar. Morningstar was husband Bill Clinton’s Special Advisor to the President on CASPIAN Basin Energy Diplomacy. Morningstar, along with his controversial aide, Matthew Bryza, have been the key Washington architects of Washington’s geopolitical-motivated oil and gas pipeline projects that would isolate RUSSIA and its Gazprom gas resources from the EU. Bryza is an open opponent of RUSSIAN Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline that would transit the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN states. The USA seems to have its own agenda regarding GREEKS recent oil and gas discoveries, for three days after Hillary left Athens the GREEK government proposed creation of a new government agency to run tenders for oil and gas surveys and ultimate drilling bids.

US SPECIAL ENVOY FOR EURASIAN ENERGY, AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR  - THE US SPECIALIST IN “ECONOMIC WARFARE”:

He was instrumental in backing the controversial B-T-C oil pipeline from Baku through Tbilisi in GEORGIA across to the TURKISH Mediterranean port of CEYHAN, a costly enterprise designed solely to bypass RUSSIAN oil pipeline transit.  

Entire article can be read at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

Aliyev has steered a pro-Western course, forging regional alliances with TURKEY and ISRAEL while keeping at bay former imperial master RUSSIA as well as the country’s southern neighbor IRAN, where a quarter of the population is ethnic AZERI. He’s stymied all but a handful of protests since the Arab Spring swept away regimes across the Middle East, including in EGYPT.

Background Information: 

EXPANDING AND IMPROVING TIES WITH AZERBAIJAN

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“The system is reliant on a large and well-funded police force and national security services,” said Lilit Gevorgyan, senior analyst at IHS Global Insight. “Corruption and nepotism also remain pervasive despite the official statistics on poverty reduction.”

Aliyev signed more than 20 decrees raising public sector wages in the past several weeks.

Even as Aliyev used the country’s oil riches to slash poverty levels, youth unemployment may become a “critical issue,” the International Monetary Fund said in a report last year, estimating that about a third of the unemployed are aged 16 to 24.

‘YOUTH BULGE’

The so-called “youth bulge” was a key factor in the Arab Spring protests that overthrew leaders in TUNISIA, LIBYA and EGYPT. While 1.2 billion people, or 17 percent of the world’s population, are aged 15 to 24, they account for 40 percent of global unemployment, according to the World Economic Forum. Job prospects for that age group are the worst in the MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA, where about one in four is without work.

“Realizing the untapped potential of youth is critical for those countries in which large youth populations and the lack of opportunity foster social unrest, as turmoil in the MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA and EUROPE has demonstrated,” the Geneva-based WEF said in a report this year.

Background Information: 

UNTAPPED POTENTIAL OF YOUTH 

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Part of Aliyev’s governing strategy is to create a “cult of personality” around his father, who is hailed as the father of the nation, Global Insight’s Gevorgyan said by e-mail. “His statues and portraits have become ubiquitous,” she said.

KGB GENERAL

Aliyev erected statues of his late father in a dozen countries.

Heydar Aliyev, a former KGB general, was appointed Communist Party Secretary of the Soviet republic in 1969, a year before Assad’s father Hafez took power in SYRIA in a bloodless coup. The elder Assad ruled through one-party control until 2000, when his son inherited the reins.

Bryza, the former U.S. ambassador, said that although there is “dissatisfaction” among the AZERI population, and the rich are getting richer faster than they did in the past, Aliyev is genuinely popular enough to win “even the freest and fairest elections.”

Baku pensioner Mammad Afandiyev, 64, said he agrees with that assessment, but only because nobody else has the political, financial and human resources to challenge Aliyev.

“Most AZERIS criticize Aliyev, but there are no alternatives at the moment,” Afandiyev said, adding that he doesn’t plan to vote “because it won’t make a difference.”

EXXON, TOTAL

The tens of billions of dollars that BP and other western energy companies including EXXON MOBIL CORP, TOTAL SA  and STATOIL ASA have invested in AZERBAIJAN has allowed Aliyev to more than triple both oil production and the size of the economy in a decade, boosting the average income sixfold.

Still, crude production, which accounts for more than half of the economy, has been declining since 2010 and the popularity of social networks such as Facebook Inc., with more than 1 million AZERI users, is on the rise, giving people new avenues to express their frustration.

Hasanli, Aliyev’s main challenger, is a history professor who was nominated by the country’s opposition groups just last month. The union’s first choice, Oscar-winning screenwriter Rustam Ibrahimbayov, was disqualified for holding RUSSIAN citizenship. RUSSIA denied a request for a quick annulment of his passport, saying the process may take a year.

Hasanli is running on a platform of a “peaceful transition to democracy,” pledging to curb presidential powers and shift to a parliamentary republic. He’s also pledged to step down after two years and call new elections for parliament and president.

IN AZERBAIJAN, EU FOCUSES ON ENERGY INSTEAD OF DEMOCRACY

Source: DW

The news came three days ahead of the GERMAN federal elections and went nearly unnoticed: Eon, GERMANY’S biggest energy group, signed a gas deal with AZERBAIJAN. The company will import 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas over the next 25 years from the Shah Deniz field, AZERBAIJAN’S biggest natural gas field in the CASPIAN SEA.

The natural gas will be imported starting in 2019 through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The construction of TAP was decided in June of this year. Although the EUROPEAN UNION favored another project – the Nabucco-Pipeline- Brussels is now delighted about the new energy source. The EU wants to become more independent from RUSSIAN energy supplies.

Background Information: 

GEOPOLITICS REGARDING NATURAL RESOURCES

 

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Oil-rich AZERBAIJAN voted to elect a new president, and as predicted, the incumbent president won. Ten years ago, President Ilham Aliyev was elected with nearly 80 percent of the vote. And in the 2008 election, he got more than 88 percent of the ballots, similar to this year’s elections. 

UNEQUAL CHANCES FOR THE OPPOSITION

Ahead of the ballot, the AZERBAIJANI election supervisor spoke of democratic elections. But regional experts like Uwe Halbach from the GERMAN Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) disagree. The presidential elections “will not be free and fair,” Halbach said.

“In the media, the president predominates and there is bullying of the opposition and limitations put on freedom of assembly,” Halbach told DW.

Canan Atilgan, director of the regional program “Dialogue with the CAUCASUS” from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), said that calling the elections democratic would be “too optimistic.” According to Atilgan, the cards are stacked against the opposition candidates.

Rustam Ibrahimbekov, the common candidate of several opposition parties, was not approved because he was holding a RUSSIAN passport and was living abroad. The opposition group “National Council of the Democratic Forces” appointed the historian Jamil Gasanly, but his result is expected to be in the single digits. Everything suggests that the only political dynasty in the post-Soviet region will be extended by another five years.

THE ALIYEV DYNASTY SECURES ITS POWER

The 51-year-old Aliyev inherited the presidency from his father Geidar in 2003. Geidar Aliyev ruled the resource-rich nation for ten years as president and before that as the Communist Party leader.

Although Ilham Aliyev was originally not allowed to run for president after two terms, he amended the law through a widely criticized referendum, changing the rules so that he can now run indefinitely.

For years, human rights organizations like Amnesty International (AI) and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have denounced the situation in AZERBAIJAN. Dozens of political activists and journalists are imprisoned, according to a report published in September by HRW.

ALLEGATIONS OF DOUBLE STANDARDS

There are similar conditions in other successor states of the Soviet Union like BELARUS, where the EU has imposed sanctions against the government in Minsk. The BELARUSIAN President Alexander Lukashenko is not allowed to travel to the EU.

But the EU handles AZERBAIJAN differently. Ilham Aliyev travels frequently to EUROPE and is hailed for his “vast progress” in modernizing his country. EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barosso expressed this opinion during a meeting with Aliyev in June 2013.

And AZERBAIJAN’S president rejects criticism from WESTERN media. “We have a free press, censorship does not exist and all political parties operate freely,” Aliyev said.

The opposition in AZERBAIJAN, for its part, accuses the EU of double standards. “BELARUS is put under much stronger sanctions than AZERBAIJAN is, although the political developments are not that different,” Halbach said.

AZERBAIJAN is an energy supplier for EUROPEAN countries, which makes “more difficult for the EU to criticize political developments there,” according to Halbach. As a result, AZERBAIJAN is becoming an “increasingly self-confidence country,” he said.

AZERBAIJAN‘S STRONG POSITION AS AN ENERGY SUPPLIER

WESTERN companies have produced oil in the former SOVIET republic since 1994, and they will begin producing natural gas there as well in the near future. In 2011, the EU and AZERBAIJAN signed a common declaration in which Baku obligated itself to deliver natural gas to EUROPE. The plan will be implemented with the construction of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.

It would be wrong to say that the EU remains completely silent on democracy in AZERBAIJAN, according to Atilgan from KAS. GERMANY voiced its concerns ahead of the Eurovision Song Contest in 2012, which was held in AZERBAIJAN’S capital Baku. But the EU’s overriding interest in Caspian natural gas dominates its relations with Baku, the KAS expert said.

In the run-up to the election, the EU has largely refrained from criticizing the AZERBAIJANI government. A week ago, EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton and EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle issued a statement expressing their concern about pressure put on “opposition activists, civil society and independent media” in AZERBAIJAN. The two EU officials said that Brussels would monitor the situation.