HOW WILL THE NEW WORLD ORDER BE SHAPED?
We
have now reached the middle years of the century’s second decade, but the
answers to questions about the nature of the world which awaits our
children and grandchildren and how the new international political and
economic order will take shape remain as obscure as ever. The last century
was one of great disasters but also one of almost unbelievable progress in
which the present international system was created. Now, however, the inadequacy
of the system is becoming more evident each day. It is within this
framework that the human race is nearly flopping in its war for survival.
A CHANGING WORLD
The
world we live in today is very different from that of the recent past.
Inter-governmental organizations like the UNITED NATIONS, the IMF, and the WORLD
BANK, products of the Cold War are losing their ability to function and
proving themselves inadequate in providing international security and
preventing economic and financial crises. The consequence of such a
situation is increased competition and disputes between different states,
and perhaps even bloody wars. The nation state is being updated. As the UN
system loses functionality, a return to the balance of power and to
alliances resembling those of the 19th century – like the
“Coalition of the Willing” –is gaining credence.
Globalisation,
the opening of economies to international markets, leads both to great
prosperity and to great imbalances. At the same time it also leads to
universal values, such as human rights and freedoms, spreading and being
appreciated throughout different countries and continents.
The
development of communications technology enables ordinary individuals to
have easy and swift access to information and thus boosts their power to
seek their rights. In many places there is a growing tendency towards
protecting the rights of individuals rather than those of states, for
liberal democracy to gain more of a social character as it spreads, and for
growing environmental consciousness, and there is steadily more acceptance
of the primacy of human rights. But in many places racial or social
blockages, ethnic and religious impositions, and authoritarian
administrations which mercilessly use violence even against their own people
all still linger.
This
situation is the cause of mass uprisings by societies which for centuries
have been exposed to injustice, wrongdoing, and contempt. The Middle East
and North Africa have witnessed bloody revolutions of this kind, and religious-based extremist organizations that do not hesitate to resort
to violence have turned into non-state, political actors influential in
international relations.
ABSOLUTE POWER HAS COME TO AN
END
The
numbers of countries, their populations, standards of living, literacy
ratios, volumes of production, and the variety of the things they produce
are all increasing. People, goods, money, ideas, values, and technological
innovations are all entering into circulation in the world at unbelievable
speed. These changes lead to fundamental shifts in people’s mentalities and
expectations. The conceptions of political and military power that have
prevailed for centuries are now losing their meaning. No single country, no
matter how strong it may be, and no single leader, no matter how
authoritarian he or she may be, can single-handedly determine the agenda
for the world or his or her country or simply do as they please. Non-state
actors can flummox even superpowers. No one can take control of the global
economy. New energy technologies are overturning traditional geopolitical
strategies. Multilateral systems are being compelled to give way to
bilateral agreements, balance of power politics, and the influence of
regional dynamics. Increasingly, the world can no longer be run from a
single decision-making centre or even joint decision-making centres.
Conspiracy theories are becoming meaningless.
Therefore,
in a world like the one just described, countries which suppose that the
old conditions still remain – and which frame their policies in tune with
them – are sure to be seriously disappointed.
For
this reason it is of vital importance that every country makes a sound
appraisal of present international circumstances. What is even more
important is that each country should contemplate the ways in which the new
political, economic, security, and financial order of the 21st
century will be shaped, the principles on which governments will rise, and
where the world’s centres of gravity will come into being.
FOUR CENTERS OF GRAVITY
If
TURKEY is to continue to view itself predominantly as a MIDDLE EASTERN country
it will have to consider remaining involved with the problems of this wide
region of vast natural resources stretching from AFGHANISTAN to NORTH
AFRICA. This implies being involved for many years with one-man regimes,
civil wars, and conflicts over ethnicity, religion, and sectarianism. What
sort of role can TURKEY play in these lands that are (and will continue to
be) rife with lawlessness, poverty, ignorance, and political turmoil. For
how much longer will TURKEY be able to continue to open its arms to
hundreds of thousands of refugees and asylum-seekers?
One
of the centres of gravity in the 21st century world will be the
group of ASIAN countries which form the Moscow-Beijing axis exemplified by
the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION.
This axis is composed of countries which are politically authoritarian and
economically liberal. While this axis enables its two giant powers to exert
some control over each other, it simultaneously aims to prevent AMERICA and
the EU from intruding into their spheres of influence. This implies that
neither RUSSIA nor CHINA want to see any changes in the existing order at
the UN, an order which gives both of them the right to veto. Consequently, RUSSIA
and CHINA prefer to keep the world system dysfunctional. So it is manifest
that those countries whose development strategy is not based on paying
workers at close to poverty levels will not be compatible with this
international axis which does not prioritize human dignity, social justice,
or the environment.
NORTH
AMERICA will probably still form the most powerful centre of gravity in
international affairs. AMERICA will continue to encourage the development
of democracy in the world, but in order to help safeguard international
security and stability and the creation of a new international economic
order, the U.S. will persist in seeking solutions outside multilateral
systems deadlocked by vetoes, like the UN and the World Trade Organization
(WTO), and rely on the balance of power. The signs are clear how AMERICA is
searching for such a new strategy in the way it is now intent on bilateral
agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership in
economics and the “Coalition of the Willing” in security.
The
enlarged EUROPEAN UNION constitutes a further centre of gravity. Like a
great axis, EUROPE will expand to include the entire continent. It will
continue to prioritize several things: shared sovereignty in order to
achieve the ideal of an open society and democracy based on a
socially-informed, free economy which respects fundamental rights and
equality between men and women, multilateral approaches, international law,
and international bodies including the UN.
If,
on the basis of the above, the world was to be divided into four centres of
gravity, then there would be no more possibility for universal values to
prevail in international relations, and competition between these four
poles or axes might inescapably create conditions which would spell the end
for humanity.
Consequently
countries and leaders which attach value to the continued existence of
peace, democracy, and human rights in the world have a common endeavor: to
ensure cooperation and solidarity with those in the four centres who share
universal values, and also to prevent the world from splitting up into
mutually hostile compartments.
The
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is under
negotiation between the U.S. and the EU, and the Transpacific Partnership
(TPP) launched between the U.S. and the ASIA-PACIFIC countries, are of
great importance for world peace. They will have the effect of ensuring
that these four rival centres will not be pitted against each other but
will be economically united. Countries which remain outside this process
will be obliged to conform to the outcome of negotiations in which they
have not participated.
This article was firstly
published in Analist Monthly Journal, in October 2013.
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