LIBYA, TUNISIA AND EGYPT
The ISLAMIC STATE (IS) continues to expand its offensive
operations, and is fast gaining support outside IRAQ and SYRIA. Next on its
agenda seems to be the NORTH AFRICAN region. However, is the ground fertile
enough for the IS to find roots in LIBYA, TUNISIA, or EGYPT? And do AFRICAN
leaders have anything to worry about?
NORTH AFRICA IS THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS JOINING THE IS
The IS seems unstoppable and is spreading into NORTH AFRICA –
a region marked by poor governance and a large number of violent extremist
groups. In fact, research conducted by the SOUFAN Group estimates that NORTH
AFRICA is the region with the highest number of foreign fighters joining the
IS, the reason being “incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress
serious societal issues, persistent high unemployment, and a failure to cope
with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger.” The threat
from the IS is not potential, it is already there.
The LIBYAN state has been rather weak after MUAMMAR
GADHAFI´S fall in 2011. This has given space for GADHAFI’S Islamist opponents,
who had earlier gone to SYRIA to participate in the anti-BASHAR ASSAD jihad, to
return and secure a foothold in the LIBYAN city of DARNAH. Several militias are
presently ruling in DARNAH, with the ISLAMIC YOUTH SHURA COUNCIL being the most
important one. Furthermore, the militia group, MAJLIS SHURA SHABAB AL-ISLAM (MSSI),
also recently established in DARNAH and pledged its support to the IS. Training
camps with at least 200 militants have been established in the hills outside of
DARNAH, according to DAVIS RODRIGUEZ, commander of AFRICOM.
Background Information:
POROUS BORDERS TURN LIBYA INTO RADICAL SANCTUARY
According to NOMAN BENOTMAN, President of QUILLIAM
FOUNDATION, the LIBYAN IS faction is now in total control of DARNAH and is
managing the administration of the city, its courts, education and local radio.
It has also expanded westwards in the towns of al BAYDA, BENGHAZI, SIRTE,
AL-KHUMS and TRIPOLI. The ground in LIBYA is evidently fertile enough for an IS
expansion, as these examples demonstrate. The militia are not different from
the IS in IRAQ and SYRIA, and if voices of criticism are raised, they can
expect being hunted down and beheaded by these Islamic fighters.
Background Information:
LIBYA’S INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY SPILLING OVER INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN
LIBYA - DOOMED FROM DAY
ONE
VOLATILE SAHEL REGION
WHY THE SAHEL IS CRUCIAL
TO EUROPE'S NEIGHBORHOOD – AND ITS SECURITY STRATEGY.
DISILLUSIONED YOUTH
OF AFRICA - EASY TARGET FOR JIHADIST
As such, DARNAH is the first city in the region to become an
IS-controlled territory. This is however not surprising as LIBYA has become an
important source of weapons in the post-Arab Spring setting, and provides
perfect conditions for the IS to further augment its revenues from this oil-rich
country.
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Of the approximately 50 countries struggling to prevent
people joining the IS, TUNISIA is the largest source of foreign fighters
joining the IS. The official estimate is that, as of April 2014, a total of
3,000 fighters have joined the IS. Post-Arab Spring TUNISIA has found it rather
difficult to establish a balance between freedom and public security. Social
unrest and new religious freedom have enabled radical preachers to stoke the
religious fire among disillusioned youth who are easy targets for jihadist
training in SYRIA. According to MARWEN JEDDA, a human rights lawyer
representing Islamist clients, “for many of these young men, death in SYRIA is
a lot better option than staying here and going to prison, and being tortured
and harassed”. TUNISIAN fighters are attracted by their possible liberation
from poverty and the promise of a good life in the ISLAMIC CALIPHATE as
emphasized by the IS in its propaganda.
As for EGYPT, its Interior Minister Major General MUHAMED
IBRAHIM argues that the country is not likely to fall to the seductive IS
ideology. However, the military has faced difficulties in containing Islamist
extremists in the SINAI. For instance, the IS affiliate group, ANSAR BAYT
AL-MAQDIS (ABM), allegedly swore allegiance to the IS in early November 2014.
It has also led aggressive attacks against EGYPT’S military and civil servants,
and episodes of beheadings and the broadcasting of videos, though less
professional in comparison with IS videos, have appeared. Additionally, a
former MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD member stated in an interview with Al-Monitor that
there are many people with faith in the IS and that if the government were to
attempt to restrict their travel to SYRIA, they will form IS units in EGYPT itself.
CONDITIONS IN THE
SINAI ARE PERFECT FOR ISLAMIC STATE
The SINAI PENINSULA is strategically important to the IS
since it serves as a bridge between two continents. A firm foothold in EGYPT is
thus desirable as SINAI can serve as a launching pad for terrorist attacks
against WESTERN nationals in, for instance, ISRAEL and at popular EGYPTIAN
tourist attractions like SHARM EL-SHEIKH and MOUNT SINAI. As pointed out by Der
Spiegel, “Conditions in the SINAI are perfect for ISLAMIC STATE: It is bitterly
poor, largely lawless, a hub of drug, weapons and human trafficking, and it is
populated by BEDOUINS, who oppose the government in CAIRO. But moderate
Islamists and regime critics across EGYPT make for attractive IS targets: They
are brutally oppressed by the EGYPTIAN military and many of them are in
prison.”
Background Information:
ARMS AND MISSILES BOUND FOR GAZA WERE SMUGGLED IN FROM SUDAN AND LIBYA
THROUGH SOUTHERN EGYPT AND SINAI
COPYCATS - AFRICAN
REBEL GROUPS
A concern worth highlighting is the problem of copycats. AFRICAN
rebel groups have been witnessing the “success” of the IS in expanding their
hold over territories in SYRIA and IRAQ and are thus trying to copy the IS.
Further, the threat of the IS in LIBYA, TUNISIA or EGYPT has the potential to
grow because there seems to be a generation gap between the older jihadists
continuing to support the AL-QAEDA in the ISLAMIC MAGHREB (AQIM) and the
younger jihadists determined to break away from AQIM and pledging allegiance to
the IS. The ‘jihad-generation’ seems highly determined and attracted to the
brutality of fighting, as well as the wealth and way of life that the IS CALIPHATE
has to offer.
IS HAS PROVED RATHER
CAPABLE OF ACHIEVING ITS STATED GOALS
There is no worry about finance and education, as the CALIPHATE
provides these. After all, the IS has proved rather capable of achieving its
stated goals including the ability to gain control over substantial territories
and build up a large army of domestic and foreign fighters.
Analysts like THOMAS JOSELYN, senior fellow at the FOUNDATION
FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES, argue that there is little doubt that the IS will
gain foothold in this region due to its “close” connections with the AL-QAEDA movement.
On the other hand, people joining the IS are generally younger and arguably
with looser bonds to AL-QAEDA affiliate leaders compared to the older
generation. And it is this generation, the young social media adept generation
that the IS strategically targets. In the eyes of this jihad-generation,
already existing extremist groups in NORTH AFRICA have failed to improve the
situation, while the IS characterizes success, wealth, order, and the “perfect
life”.
As such, the ground in LIBYA, EGYPT and TUNISIA is more
fertile for the IS than what the leaders of these countries might wish it to
be. The IS threat in NORTH AFRICA is not a future possibility but a present
reality.
By Tuva Julie Engebrethsen Smith via IDSA
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