WHY
DOES NOBODY WANT TO PLAY WITH TURKEY?
TURKEY is too big, too ISLAMIST
and too un-EUROPEAN for the EU; it is too little ISLAMIST and a disliked former
colonial power for most of the ARAB street; a sectarian and regional rival for IRAN,
and a security threat to the bigwigs in the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION.
Theoretically, TURKEY is
a NATO ally. In reality, it is a part-time NATO ally. It became the first
member state that had military exercises with the SYRIAN army and the CHINESE
Air Force; awarded a NATO-sensitive air defense contract to a CHINESE company;
supported jihadists in SYRIA and THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD elsewhere in the MIDDLE
EAST; allied with what NATO nations view as a terrorist organization (Hamas);
shared, until recently, an embarrassing list of potentially
terrorist-sponsoring countries with seven others including SYRIA and PAKISTAN,
and sported a population with the lowest support for the NATO alliance.
Background
Information:
THE
AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM DEAL WITH CHINA AND THE CRISIS WITH NATO
ONLY
18% OF TURKS TRUST THE EU
Also, theoretically, TURKEY
is a member candidate of the EUROPEAN UNION [EU]. In reality, since 1974, TURKEY
has been occupying one-third of the territory of an EU member state, CYPRUS; it
boasts a record number of violations of human rights, according to rulings by
the EUROPEAN Court of Human Rights; it remains the EU's dreaded problem in most
areas of fundamental policy; it habitually (and undiplomatically) ignores EU
calls for broader freedoms; and it is gripped by a deep distrust of the EU. A
most recent survey, "Public Opinion in The EUROPEAN UNION – November
2014," conducted by the EUROPEAN Commission's Eurobarometer, revealed that
only 18% of TURKS trust the EU.
Background
Information:
DOES
TURKEY REALLY NEED THE EU?
Just recently, RUSSIA'S Prime
Minister, DMITRY MEDVEDEV, recalled a joke by his predecessor VIKTOR
CHERNOMYRDIN [prime minister between 1992 and 1998] who once was asked by a
journalist when UKRAINE could join the EU. "After TURKEY,"
Chernomyrdin replied. When should we expect TURKEY to become a member, asked
the journalist. "Never," he said.
TURKEY'S
SOUL SEARCHING
During most of the 2000s,
TURKEY'S soul searching, coupled with its leaders' apparent quest for the
revival of PAN-ISLAMIST and NEO-OTTOMAN ideas, pushed the country into the
illusion of a "MIDDLE EAST UNION" to be led, of course, by TURKEY.
Instead, TURKEY in the post-Arab spring years has found itself as the target of
enmity in the MIDDLE EAST. Many overt and covert hostilities and tensions
created diplomatic crises with all countries in the former OTTOMAN LANDS --
except one: the tiny hydrocarbon-rich emirate, QATAR (along with Hamas).
Background
Information:
TURKEYS
CURRENT MIDDLE EAST POLICY MAKES ENEMIES WITH EVERYONE
QATAR
AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
THE
SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION
Theoretically, TURKEY is
the regional empire in the MUSLIM MIDDLE EAST. In reality, it is an unwanted
ally.
So, the soul searching
continues. In January 2013, President [then prime minister] RECEP TAYYIP
ERDOGAN publicly toyed with the idea of TURKEY seeking its future in another
alliance: the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION [SCO]. Since then, he has
mentioned this desire a couple of times. In November 2013, ERDOGAN, as once
again demanded a seat for TURKEY at the SCO from RUSSIAN President VLADIMIR
PUTIN this would "save ANKARA from the troubles of the EU accession
process."
"Allow us into the SHANGHAI
COOPERATION ORGANIZATION and save us from this trouble," ERDOGAN asked PUTIN.
A few years earlier, TURKEY
had behaved like the "bizarre ally" it was: it became the first NATO
member state to become a "dialogue partner" with the SCO. But is
there a future for TURKEY in the SCO, sometimes call the "eastern NATO
plus EU?"
Theoretically, yes. TURKEY,
with its democratic culture and ERDOGAN'S increasingly authoritarian rule,
looks like a perfect fit for the group. Its members already include RUSSIA,
CHINA, UZBEKISTAN, TAJIKISTAN, KYRGYZSTAN and KAZAKHSTAN (the SCO's other
dialogue partners are BELARUS and SRI LANKA. Countries with an observer status
are AFGHANISTAN, INDIA, PAKISTAN, IRAN and MONGOLIA).
But actually, TURKEY is
probably no more wanted in the SCO than in the EU or among ARAB nations in the MIDDLE
EAST. The SCO's heavyweights are RUSSIA and CHINA, both of which support SYRIAN
President BASHAR AL-ASSAD, ERDOGAN'S one-time best regional ally and presently
his regional nemesis. During PUTIN'S high-profile visit to ANKARA at the
beginning of December, ERDOGAN had to admit that TURKEY and RUSSIA "keep
on falling apart" on the issue of SYRIA.
FOR
RUSSIA, TURKEY MEANS - DOLLARS:
Tens of billions of
dollars in bilateral trade -- a perfect client for RUSSIAN natural gas, as well
as a potential transit route to export gas to third countries. But it also
means a hostile country ruled by ISLAMISTS who seek SUNNI supremacy using
jihadists, Hamas and the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD to expand its regional clout in the
MIDDLE EAST, often against RUSSIAN interests.
Background
Information:
MOSCOW'S
DECISION TO ABANDON SOUTH STREAM IN FAVOR OF PROVIDING THAT GAS TO TURKEY FOR
TRANSFER TO THE EU, HAS ENHANCED ANKARA'S INFLUENCE OVER EUROPE GREATLY
TURKEY - CHINA, AND THE PROBLEM WITH THE TURKIC UIGHUR JIHADIST"S
For CHINA, too, TURKEY is
a good client. Unlike RUSSIA, CHINESE companies actively win infrastructure,
telecommunications and mining contracts in TURKEY. But like RUSSIA, CHINA, too,
deeply distrusts TURKEY politically. CHINA'S most pressing domestic security
issue, the ethnically TURKIC UIGHUR Muslim separatists in the western province
of XINJIANG, has a TURKISH connection. CHINESE
authorities often accuse TURKEY of harboring UIGHUR terrorists and allowing JIHADIST
UIGHURS a safe passage between SYRIA and CHINA.
Background
Information:
UYGHURS
IN XUAR ARE PREDOMINATELY SUNNI MUSLIM AND FAVOR PAN-ISLAMISM AND PAN-TURKISM
With its neo-imperial
ambitions and SUNNI ISLAMIST policy calculus, TURKEY once again fails to fit
any alliance's broad foreign policy and security structure. The soul searching
will have to go on.
TURKEY is too big, too ISLAMIST
and too un-EUROPEAN for the EU; it is too little ISLAMIST and a disliked former
colonial power for most of the ARAB Street; a sectarian and regional rival for IRAN,
and a security threat to the bigwigs in the SCO.
By Burak Bekdil via GatestoneInstitute
Burak Bekdil, is based in ANKARA, where he works as a columnist
for the Hürriyet Daily and also holds a Fellowship at the MIDDLE EAST Forum.
More
Background Information on TURKEY:
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