WARRING CLANS AND ITS IMPACT ON REGIONAL STABILITY
Since the outbreak of the LIBYAN revolution
in 2011 and the collapse of MU’AMMAR QADDAFI’S JAMAHIRIYA (Republic of the MASSES),
LIBYA has fallen into a process of constant and ever deeper chaos, which has
lately reached a new climax. This conflict, however, has its roots in some
specific features characterizing LIBYA as a “nation-state”: while LIBYA may be
a nation-state on paper, it has yet to become a proper and unified national
society. Indeed, the very roots of the revolution in LIBYA lie in the
significant structural, regional and territorial imbalances that have
characterized LIBYA since its establishment and the dominance of parochial and
narrow interests.
Background Information:
LIBYA’S INSTABILITY IS ALREADY SPILLING OVER INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN
 |
| Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica |
Indeed, regional and political
imbalances – the neglected east and south against the stronger and richer west
– were key in setting the landscape in which the LIBYAN revolution took place.
Revolts started in BENGHAZI and moved east to west, with a long military
stalemate occurring in RAS LANUF, historically a sort of informal cultural
border dividing TRIPOLITANIA and CYRENAICA.
Geographically, this was similar to what happened with the 1969
revolution. That revolution was a reaction against the dominance of the east, BENGHAZI
and the royal circle. Among the 12 members of the Revolutionary Command
Council, which led the revolution and then acted as the supreme authority in LIBYA
between 1969 and 1975, only four were from the east.
FALL OF THE REGIME CAUSED THE FALL OF THE STATE
Moreover, another factor
explaining the complete collapse of order in post-QADDAFI LIBYA is the complete
lack of any reliable state institution. Despite being the “Republic of the MASSES”,
QADDAFI’S JAMAHIRIYA was essentially based on his sole, complete personal rule:
42 years under this system left LIBYA as a sort of institutional desert
following the collapse of the regime. The regime overlapped the state and as a
result the boundaries, both conceptual and organizational, between the two
became soon nonexistent. That explains why, in LIBYA, the fall of the regime
caused the fall of the state, unlike in TUNISIA and EGYPT where the regimes,
not the state, collapsed. However, this lack of institutional capacity must be
seen in a longer-term perspective: that was a structural feature of LIBYA as a
nation-state since its foundation. LIBYA at independence did not have a stable
state apparatus and oil and external revenue allowed the rulers to avoid
building a bureaucratic state, moving from the rentier patronage of KING IDRIS and
the SENUSSI monarchy to the distributive republic led by QADDAFI.
THE DYNAMICS OF THE CURRENT CRISIS
Institutional incapacity and
dominance of localism represent the key structural elements of the LIBYAN
socio-political environment. At the end of 2013, the General National Congress
(GNC) voted to extend its life beyond the original February 2014 deadline
(Libya Herald, December 23, 2013). This triggered a number of reactions from a
few groups through the entire Libyan political spectrum: the ZINTANIS,
supported by the forces of IBRAHIM AL-JADHRAN, threatened to storm the
parliament. On February 14, General KHALIFA HAFTAR announced the continuing
work of the National Conference, the LIBYAN government, and the constitutional
declaration in a statement broadcasted by a private TV channel, with the prime
minister of that time, ALI ZEIDAN, who said that the government was
nevertheless safe and the situation under total control (Reuters, February 14).
Despite these reassurances, the
situation in LIBYA continued to deteriorate. In mid-May, after weeks of clashes
and violence, the self-declared LIBYAN National Army, led by Haftar, launched
an attack against Islamist-oriented militias, namely the FEBRUARY 17 MARTYRS
BRIGADE, in BENGHAZI. This was the start of “OPERATION DIGNITY” whose aim was,
in HAFTAR’S words, to “eradicate terrorism” from LIBYA. Fighting erupted in TRIPOLI,
LIBYA’S capital, on May 18, when the ZINTAN-based QAAQAA and SAWAAQ brigades
attacked on parliamentary facilities. Authorities proposed new elections to end
the stalemate and reduce conflict and on June 25, LIBYA held elections to elect
members of the new House of Representatives (HoR) (Reuters, May 20).
This election did not stop the
country from falling into chaos. On the contrary, it accelerated the
polarization of the country. A number of groups and militias supporting the
previous GNC parliament launched “OPERATION FAJR LIBYA” (LIBYAN DAWN) on July
13; this led to the splitting of LIBYAN executive and legislative power into
two competing parliaments. By the end of August, LIBYAN DAWN forces had taken
control of TRIPOLi, forcing the HoR to move to TOBRUQ, in the far east of the
country (Al-Monitor, August 25). The recent decision by the Supreme Court to
consider the HoR “illegitimate” has reignited the attempts by the TOBRUK based
government to use force to regain the formal control of the country (Libya
Herald, November 6).
Background Information:
VOLATILE SAHEL REGION
On November 28, General HAFTAr
claimed that his forces controlled 80 percent of BENGHAZI and he further said
that he wanted to regain the control of TRIPOLI within three months. He said
that the real military threat was represented by militant group ANSAR
AL-SHARI’A, considered to be well-equipped and skilled fighters, while he
dismissed the capacities of LIBYAN DAWN and the “local branch of ISIS [in DERNA].”
He also criticized what he perceived to be the lack of external support,
lamenting that regional countries who supported him had only provided old and
outdated military equipment and weaponry. He also dismissed alleged support
from the UNITED STATES and stressed once again that the significance of the
battle he is leading goes beyond LIBYAN borders; it is part of a wider effort
against “terrorism” (Corriere della Sera, November 28).
However, claims by HAFTAR of a
quick and relatively smooth victory are far too optimistic. The situation
remains in the balance and no side can yet claim an open and clear superiority.
DIGNITY VS. DAWN
Making sense of the current
alliances in LIBYA remains a challenging exercise as interests and ambitions
are fragmented, diversified and can shift suddenly. It is almost impossible to
find a unified, clear and coherent agenda shared by all the actors of one bloc
and, most of the time, alliances remain based on tactical and short-term
interests. The historical fault lines through which LIBYAN politics and social
conflicts have been largely analyzed – TRIPOLITANIA vs CYRENAICA; inter- and
intra-tribal conflicts; rural vs urban realities; QADDAFI loyalists vs
revolutionary hardliners; Islamists vs secularists – cannot provide a clear and
satisfying conceptual explanation to understand the current conflict. The
ongoing events can be more thoroughly explained by an overlapping of these
fault lines and the current crisis in LIBYA is absolutely something more than a
simply tribal conflict or a clear dispute between two coherent and homogeneous
groups. These two groups can be described as General HAFTAR’S supporters and OPERATION
DIGNITY and the supporters of the previous GNC government and OPERATION LIBYAN
DAWN.
THE “DIGNITY” FRONT
THE DIGNITY FRONT is led by the
forces of General HAFTAR who considered the GNC too oriented towards Islamist
and conservative forces. Although partially true, this is not entirely
accurate. Among OPERATION DIGNITY’S supporters, there is the ZINTANI SAWAQ Brigade,
led by IMAD MUSTAFA AL-TARABULSI and considered to be one of the strongest
factions in LIBYA. Another major group supporting HAFTAR is the QAAQAA Brigade,
formed by other ZINTAN rebels back in 2011. Its commander is OTHMAN MILAIQTAH,
who survived an assassination attempt in February 2014 (Libya Herald, February
20). Like many other LIBYAN politicians such as MAHMOUD JIBRIL, the former LIBYAN
parliamentary speaker MUHAMMAD AL-MAQRIF and the post-revolution interior
minister ASHOUR SHOWAIL, MILAIQTAH met the criteria enlisted in the contested
Isolation Law (al-Sharq al-Awsat, June 20, 2013). The Isolation Law was voted
by the GNC in 2013 to eradicate the presence of members who served the LIBYAN
state under QADDAFI. Indeed, groups of former loyalists now back HAFTAR and OPERATION
DIGNITY, including militias from TOBRUQ and SIRTE – a major stronghold of QADDAFI
Loyalists. HAFTAR also won the support of a number of influential tribes, such
as AL-UBAYDAT, AL-BARA’ISA, AL-AWAQIR and AL-ARFA (Limes [Rome], May 29). IBRAHIM
AL-JADHRAN, the controversial leader of the BARQA council in the east, also
supported HAFTAR (Libya Monitor, May 20). Moreover, HAFTAR’S alliance includes the air force, significant sectors of the
military intelligence and several police groups (al-Arabiya, May 23).
Concerns about the capacity of the GNC to maintain security in the country and
a campaign to assassinate senior military and intelligence officials in BENGHAZI
by Islamist forces as well as the presence of groups in the actual LIBYAN ARMY that
perceive the rise of Islamist forces as dangerous explain why many military
leaders have aligned themselves with HAFTAR.
Background Information:
LIBYA - DOOMED FROM DAY ONE
THE “DAWN” FRONT
The groups forming the DAWN front
are those who backed the previous parliament, the GNC. Depicting these forces
as simply Islamists can be misleading. While in the east the anti-HAFTAr forces
are largely Islamist, at the same time it is not possible to define this bloc
as “Islamist.” The associated groups are better described as an alliance of
groups with specific territorial interests (in the case of MISRATA) and
Islamist and more conservative groups who had an interest in moving forward the
transition along the lines that emerged immediately after the end of QADDAFI’S
regime. This explains why these groups were so active in promoting the
Isolation Law.
ANSAR AL-SHARI’A IS THE LARGEST ARMED JIHADIST GROUP IN LIBYA
This alliance is centered on the
militias associated to the MISRATA Militia, a key organization that has brought
together all of the militias in MISRATA; they had a significant hand in winning
the 2011 civil war. One of the most important is the LIBYAN SHIELD militia,
present in MISRATA and TRIPOLI as well as in BENGHAZI and KHOMS. MISRATANS often
aligned themselves with the LIBYAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, although they cannot be
considered the same as the MISRATA militia is a wide group of different
brigades whose outlook and interests can also diverge. In the east, Islamist
forces are now part of the so-called SHURA COUNCIL OF BENGHAZI REVOLUTIONARIES formed
in June 2014 (al-Arabiya, August 25). The Council includes the FEBRUARY 17
MARTYRS BRIGADE, one of the biggest Islamist brigades, which is based in BENGHAZI
and receives financial support from official institutions, such as the Ministry
of Defense. ANSAR AL-SHARI’A, the largest armed jihadist group in LIBYA,
includes LIBYANS and thousands of foreign fighters from TUNISIA, ALGERIA and
other AFRICAN countries also belongs to the SHURA COUNCIL.
AN OFFSHOOT OF THE ISLAMIC STATE ORGANIZATION HAS ALSO EMERGED IN
LIBYA, SPECIFICALLY IN THE CITY OF DERNA
Other group belonging to this
alliance are the RAFALLAH SAHATI BRIGADE, centered in BENGHAZI, the BREGA
MATRYRS BRIGADE and LIBYA SHIELD 1, a militia close to the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.
Another associated Islamist group is the TRIPOLI BRIGADE, which is considered
close to ABDUL HAKIM BELHAJ, a historical leader of radical Islam in LIBYA and
the head of AL-WATAN party. This group is however mainly active in TRIPOLI and
western LIBYA. Finally, an offshoot of the ISLAMIC STATE organization has also emerged
in LIBYA, specifically in the city of DERNA. The city is historically the
stronghold for LIBYAN radical Islamists and has provided hundreds of fighters
to the conflicts in AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ (Al-Monitor, October 20).
Background Information:
POROUS BORDERS TURN LIBYA INTO RADICAL SANCTUARY
THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL POWERS
Although foreign powers have
remained wary of getting openly involved in LIBYA, largely because they aware
of the country’s complexity and the possibility that clear and open support for
any of the LIBYAN factions fighting at the moment may harm their interests and
reduce policy options should the factions they support lose their positions, at
the same time it is clear that there are two major external alignments in LIBYA.
DAWN FORCES ARE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY QATAR AND TURKEY, WHICH HAVE CLOSE
RELATIONS WITH THE LIBYAN BRANCH OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
HAFTAR is mainly supported by a
wide coalition of ARAB countries (SAUDI ARABIA, the UAE, EGYPT and ALGERIA)
whose interests sometimes diverge. For instance, EGYPT’S and ALGERIA’S
relations have been historically troubled, but on LIBYA, the two converge. HAFTAR
is also supported by the UNITED STATES though quietly. The Dawn forces are
supported mainly by QATAR and TURKEY, which have close relations with the LIBYAN
branch of the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD and with fighters from MISRATA and BENGHAZI.
EMERGENCE OF TWO COMPETING PARLIAMENTS AND GOVERNMENTS WILL DEEPEN THE
CRISIS IN LIBYA FURTHER
The dynamics described above have
shown that, over the past few months, the crisis in LIBYA has deepened further.
The emergence of two competing parliaments and governments highlights this.
This is the result of interlocking of short-term developments, such as the
reaction of some key leaders against the Isolation Law and the rising rivalries
between those groups who fought the war against QADDAFI (for instance, the ZINTANIS
vs the MISRATANS and the Islamist groups in the east) and long-term dynamics,
such as the predominance of narrow-based, local and parochial interests and the
lack of institutions able to manage political conflicts without resorting to
violence. This, together with a number of important regional and international
problems and declining oil prices that will also have a major impact on a
sector already burdened but still fundamental to LIBYAN economic and social
stability, will likely prevent the country settling its domestic conflicts. As
such, it is extremely likely that LIBYA will continue to suffer significant
instability.
Written by Dario Cristiani,
he is
an adjunct professor in international affairs at Vesalius College in Brussels
and a senior analyst at the Global Governance Institute.
No comments:
Post a Comment