SAUDI ARABIA AFTER
ABDULLAH
The prolonged hospitalization of
the current king of SAUDI ARABIA, 91-year-old ABDULLAH BIN ABDUL AZIZ,
“custodian” of oil and Islamic holy sites, has led to concerns about the
continued stability and future policy of this key country. SAUDI ARABIA will
likely have a new king in 2015, and no matter who he is, he will face several
significant challenges, both at home and abroad. The ARAB world is confronting
one of its most difficult hours, and political stability in SAUDI ARABIA has
implications for all ARAB states.
Until now, oil and gas revenues
have been used by SAUDI ARABIA and other GULF STATES to shape the landscape of
the MIDDLE EAST. With the help of these revenues, the royal houses support one
regime and undermine another, in accordance with their geostrategic (and
sometimes sectarian) interests. If oil prices remain at their current level for
a long time, SAUDI ARABIA’S reserves (some $750 billion) will gradually be
eroded, and with them, the ability to provide economic support not only to
different actors, such as EGYPT and JORDAN, but also to SAUDI citizens
themselves.
Background Information:
SAUDI ARABIA’S CONCERNS THAT THE KINGDOM MAY BE THE ISLAMIC STATE’S
NEXT TARGET
SAUDI ARABIA & ISLAMIC STATE: BETWEEN IRAQ AND A HARD PLACE
Both inside and outside of SAUDI
ARABIA, the common assessment is that political stability in the kingdom is
connected to the health and longevity of the absolutist monarch who rules the
country. Therefore, the prolonged hospitalization of the current king, ABDULLAH
BIN ABDUL AZIZ, has led to concerns about the continued stability and future
policy of this key country at a time when it faces serious challenges both at
home and abroad.
CONCERNS OVER 91 YEAR OLD KING ABDULLAH’S HEALTH
The royal house is attempting to
convey a message of business as usual, but there is a certain lack of clarity
regarding the state of ABDULLAH’S health and his ability to fulfill his duties.
The 91-year-old king entered the hospital on December 31, 2014 for “medical
tests.” The official SAUDI press agency (SPA) subsequently reported that he
suffers from pneumonia and requires temporary “artificial respiration.” His
family, which is synonymous with the country’s leadership, is constantly at his
bedside in the hospital in RIYADH, as are delegations from neighboring
countries concerned about his health. The uncertainty about the king’s situation
aggravates the confusion in SAUDI ARABIA, and it is the background to
conflicting reports on the matter on social networks.
The SAUDI royal family’s supreme
interest is to retain the power in its own hands, and therefore its ability to
transfer power in the kingdom as smoothly as possible is of major importance.
However, within a short time three heirs to the throne were appointed, which
underscores that as long as the current leadership does not appoint a successor
to the throne from among IBN SAUD’S grandsons, the issue of succession – that
is, the ability to allow the new generation of leaders to handle the kingdom’s
critical affairs – will threaten the stability of the kingdom.
The custom since the days of Ibn SAUD,
ABDULLAH’S father and the founder of the modern SAUDI kingdom, is that the
crown passes among his sons, in this case, to ABDULLAH’S half-brother, Crown
Prince and Defense Minister SALMAN. The process of succession has thus far been
smooth. Indeed, the fact that ABDULLAH has an experienced heir in the form of SALMAN
should lessen concerns about a succession struggle, which would lead to a power
vacuum. However, the 80-year-old SALMAN is functioning only partially, since he
has suffered a stroke and apparently suffers from dementia. If and when he is
appointed king, he will probably rule for a shorter time than any SAUDI king
until now.
MUQRIN AN OPTION FOR SUCCESSION, BUT OPPOSED BY HIS HALF –BROTHERS
BECAUSE OF HIS YEMENI ORIGIN
Background Information:
SAUDI ARABIA: WAR INSIDE IN ITS OWN TERRITORY
THE QUIET WAR IN SAUDI ARABIA
The royal family is seeking to
avert the succession struggle’s negative impact on the kingdom’s stability. The
SAUDI Basic Law of Governance of 1992 states that the crown can also pass to
the generation of Ibn SAUD’S grandsons. In 2006, a Council of Allegiance was
established whose role is to aid the next king in choosing the heir to the
throne and in regulating processes for the transfer of power. The 1992 law and
the establishment of the Council of Allegiance laid the groundwork for
transferring government succession to the next generation of princes, but only
in principle. In practice, the process could be complex and involve renewed
power struggles within the family.
While the issue of royal
succession in SAUDI ARABIA seems to unfold like a soap opera, this absolutist
kingdom, which possesses the largest oil reserves in the world and is the home
of MUSLIM holy sites, is run according to these anachronistic codes. The
arrangements for succession in SAUDI ARABIA were designed in accordance with
the principles bequeathed by IBN SAUD, the unique needs of the kingdom, and the
circumstances and political structure that have developed. Over the years, the
transfer of power among members of one generation has contributed to some
extent to regime stability, but it has created a problem resulting from the
aging pool of potential heirs. The struggle for power, underway behind the
scenes, has thus become one involving many princes.
ABDULLAH’S PASSING WILL END A KEY CHAPTER IN THE HISTORY OF SAUDI
ARABIA
Background Information:
SAUDI ARABIA — ENGAGE IN COVERT “INFORMATION SHARING” WITH ISRAEL, IN
ORDER TO BOOST ISRAEL’S HOSTILITY TOWARDS IRAN
TWO “ARCH FOES” ALLIED IN OPPOSING IRAN DEAL?
Furthermore, ABDULLAH succeeded
in guiding the kingdom through the turmoil in the ARAB world in recent years.
In the early stages of the regional uprisings, he made a series of
appointments, apparently with the goal of preserving continuity and stability.
He promoted his son MUTAB, who is in charge of the National Guard, to a
ministerial position in the cabinet. (In this context, ABDULLAH apparently
asked MUQRIN, in exchange for his appointment, to appoint MUTAB in the future
as crown prince.) Abdullah also appointed his third son, ABDUL AZIZ, as deputy
to Foreign Minister SAUD AL-FAISAL. AL-FAISAL, who has served in this position
since 1975, is in poor health, and it is believed that when he dies, ABDUL AZIZ
will take his place. ABDULLAH appointed his son MISHAAL governor of the province
of MECCA, the province most important to Islam and the second most important
province in the kingdom, and his seventh son, TURKI, as governor of RIYADH Province.
These appointments have placed at
the royal family’s disposal experienced and worthy candidates from the
generation of IBN SAUD’S grandsons who could take on key roles in the future.
However, this is mainly an attempt on ABDULLAH’S part to give his sons an
advantage in the future struggle over succession. Another candidate who is
often mentioned as having a good chance of winning the crown is MUHAMMAD BIN
NAYEF, the SAUDI minister of the interior. Although his achievements in the war
on terror are questionable, he is well connected and highly regarded by his
counterparts in the West.
SAUDI ARABIA will likely have a
new king in 2015, and no matter who he is, he will face several significant
challenges. The ARAB world is confronting one of its most difficult hours, and
political stability in SAUDI ARABIA has implications for all ARAB states.
Background Information:
SAUDI KING WILL NOT GRANT ANY CONCESSIONS TO THE 8% SHIA POPULATION
THE QATARI PROJECT: “DESTROYING SAUDI ARABIA”?
By Yoel Guzansky via INSS Insight
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