Saturday 14 July 2012

SYRIA: BIO CHEMICAL WARFARE EQUATION

Current Mainstream Media Headlines: 

U.S. Concerned as Syria Moves Chemical Stockpile

Israel advised to brace for Syrian missile attack – conventional or chemical

Syria Chemical Weapons Arsenal: Stockpile of Chemical Weapons Reportedly Moved Out Of Storage

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 SYRIA’S ARSENAL OF BIO CHEMICAL WEAPONS: 
INFORMATION WAR, STRATEGY OR REALITY 


It’s interesting to see that only now (this week), western mainstream media and governments are picking up on the subject of SYRIA’S bio chemical weapons arsenal and threat of using them.

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring has reported on subject matter since March 2012. It is hard to believe that Western military intelligence have not been aware of the fact that Assad possesses these weapons and is willing to use them if pushed into the corner, thus it would seem that at this stage of the Syrian conflict, the protégées of covet warfare in Syria are stepping up the info war by deliberately publishing the Syria’s Bio Chemical threat through their media outlets, such as FOX, DailyMail UK, Reuters and indeed all major western mainstream media “opinion makers”. Headlines such as”U.S. Concerned as Syria Moves Chemical Stockpile”, “Israel advised to brace for Syrian missile attack – conventional or chemical”, “Syria Chemical Weapons Arsenal: Stockpile of Chemical Weapons Reportedly Moved Out Of Storage” are currently circling the media landscape.

COVET WAR: THE BETTER OPTION THAN FULL SCALE INTERVENTION

The fact that Syria possesses these weapons together with an advanced missile system is one of the reasons Western powers, in favor of toppling the Assad Regime, have opted for covert warfare rather than full-scale Libyan style intervention.

To reiterate:
On 8 of March 2012 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring stated that Syria does possess bio chemical weapons and that sooner or later they will either be used by Assad, if pushed into the corner. http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html, or by western allies, in favor of toppling the regime, as a “Psy Ops” tool to either increase covert operations, or to justify a full out military intervention.
On 20 of March Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote: Syrian Missiles will pre emptive any military intervention. See: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html
On 7 of July Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote:

UNLIKE IN EGYPT AND LIBYA, THE SYRIA’S ASSAD REGIME WILL LEAVE WITH AN IMPACT, IF TOPPLED…….

One should not underestimate SYRIA threat of using its bio chemical weapons arsenal if pushed into the corner. This could also have devastating consequences for TURKEY. The fact that SYRIA possesses these Bio chemical weapons is probably the main reason foreign intervention by western powers is put on hold, for it would affect the entire region.
See also: Useful excuse for foreign intervention: Syria’s bio – chemical weapons arsenal?
and


Debkafile,
an Israeli information outlet wrote on 14 July 2012:

ISRAEL ADVISED TO BRACE FOR SYRIAN MISSILE ATTACK – CONVENTIONAL OR CHEMICAL

As the already unthinkable pace of slaughter in SYRIA accelerates further, WESTERN military sources warned that not only ISRAEL, but additional strategic targets in MIDDLE EAST lands deemed enemies by Bashar Assad should prepare for him to launch surface-to-surface missile attacks. The assaults would start out with conventional warheads, but as the regime continued to be hammered, the beleaguered ruler might well arm the next round of missiles from his huge stockpile of mustard gas - not to mention sarin nerve poison and cyanide.
Western intelligence sources say Assad has a list of targets ready to go. Analyzing the SYRIAN war game taking place last week, they calculated that Wednesday and Thursday, July 11 and 12, the SYRIAN army practiced shooting missiles at strategic centers in ISRAEL, TURKEY and JORDAN.
But while most Western officials now confirm that Assad has moved his WMD warheads and shells out of storage, they are already divided on what it means. Some US officials are soft-pedaling the menace, offering the theory that the SYRIAN ruler is only safeguarding his unconventional weapons from falling into rebel – or what he calls “terrorist” – hands.
Other Western intelligence watchers, especially in BRITAIN, believe he is preparing a campaign of ethnic cleansing at centers of revolt and report that chemical weapons have already been transferred to Homs, Latakia and Aleppo for operational use.

Comment by GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING:

PSY-OPS OR LEGITIMATE INFORMATION 

“Unthinkable pace of slaughter in SYRIA”, “hammered”, “the beleaguered ruler” are hardly terms used to reflect objectivity, but rather to opinionate readers. To imply that, according to Western intelligence watchers, especially in BRITAIN, the Assad regime is preparing a campaign of ethnic cleansing at centers of revolt shows that Debkafile is used as a tool, by those who run the info and covert war against Syria, to opinionate readers. Using the term BRITISH intelligence watchers, instead of BRITISH intelligence indicates that the ethnic cleansing assumption probably comes from the BRITISH based “Syrian Observatory for Human Rights” which it is alleged of being a one man show, run by a man called Rami Abdulrahman

GAME-CHANGING PREDICAMENT FACING THE WEST – CONVENIENT DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

That is one game-changing predicament facing the West. It would quickly assume a regional dimension if TURKEY, ISRAEL and JORDAN were to come under SYRIAN missile assault.  Air and missile reprisals against SYRIAN military or regime centers would carry the danger of Hizballah retaliation from LEBANON leading to direct attacks from IRAN. Before going down that road, ISRAELI Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and TURKISH Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan – who are not on speaking terms – would certainly confer with US President Barack Obama.

Comment by GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING:

THE USE OF BIO CHEMICAL WEAPONS BEARS HUGE RISKS FOR ONE’S OWN FORCES IF USED IN ONE’S OWN “BACKYARD”

“Game-changing predicament facing the West”, phrases used as warmongering tactics to justify full scale intervention? Though Assad will most probably use his bio chemical weapons as a last resource if cornered, it is common knowledge that bio chemical weapons could “backfire” if used in one’s own back garden or near vicinity of the “neighborhood”. A fact all military strategists are aware of and thus usually used as the last tactical resource. The threat however becomes legitimate if Assad launches missiles with bio chemical warheads that reach further north into TURKEY as well as SAUDI ARABIA, for it would not bear the danger of affecting homeland territories. 
 
COVERT WARFARE CARRIES A PRICE IN FAILURE AND CASUALTIES

Even then, their consultations would not necessarily lead to action.
For example, three weeks have gone by since SYRIA shot down a TURKISH Air Force reconnaissance jet and yet after, close consultation with Washington, the Erdogan government was persuaded to leave the incident without response. Administration officials explained to the TURKS that covert warfare carried a price in failure and casualties.
This US attitude might well embolden the SYRIAN ruler to risk his arm with limited missile strikes against TURKEY and ISRAEL and bank on the Obama administration twisting their leaders’ arms behind their backs to prevent them making any serious response.

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