TURKEY
FALLS OUT WITH RUSSIA: ANOTHER SIGN OF A FOREIGN POLICY IN CRISIS
followup article to:
TURKEYS SUNNI CRESCENT - TURKEY AND SYRIA:
AN UNDECLARED STATE OF WAR
Wherever one looks, TURKEY’S “zero
problems with neighbors” policy is fading. Although TURKISH -RUSSIAN relations have not
received the publicity of TURKEY’S quarrels with ISRAEL, those relations
represent the latest example of this policy’s difficulties. The clashes of
TURKISH-RUSSIAN interests are part of a larger theme. They underline that the
core idea of TURKISH foreign policy during the last years, the notion that
TURKEY can truly manage to have no problems with all of its neighbors and
serenely navigate along the complex shoals of MEDITERRANEAN EUROPE, the MIDDLE
EAST, and the CAUCASUS and gain leverage throughout these zones, has proven to
be unsustainable.
TURKEYS ENERGY GAMBLE
TURKEY announced that it would not
renew the purchase of RUSSIAN gas delivered through the Western pipeline route
through the Balkans after 2012. The official reason was the high price of
RUSSIAN gas. RUSSIAN papers immediately claimed this was part of a concerted
anti-RUSSIAN attack by EUROPE and TURKEY on RUSSIAN gas policy. But the truth
is rather different and casts a critical light on both states’ policies.
TURKEY already imports about 60
percent of its gas from RUSSIA and worries about strategic over-dependence as a
result. Second, Gazprom has rebuffed TURKEY’S requests for easing the onerous
take or pay clauses in their contract that raises TURKISH payments even as
imports contract. RUSSIA has also generally refused to accede to other
customers’ requests for price cuts.
So TURKEY sent a clear signal that it would
no longer depend exclusively on RUSSIAN gas and that it had other options.
Furthermore, Ankara is replying to domestic critics who complain about the
primacy of the state company BOTAS, by allowing private importers to take over
the contracts with Gazprom in search of better prices. TURKEY also hopes for
contracts with EGYPT, IRAQ, the ITGI interconnector from AZERBAIJAN, and
TURKMENISTAN (through the projected Nabucco pipeline) and possibly hopes to
force its way into the newly discovered EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN gas fields.
TURKEY may also be hoping to gain more U.S. support, as it already has moved to
accept to participate in NATO’s missile defense shield against IRAN.
Even though both TURKISH and RUSSIAN
media habitually view international politics as a conspiracy directed against
or revolving around their countries, and although this situation is no
different, TURKEY’S moves against Gazprom and Moscow have apparently been in
the works for some time. RUSSIAN sources see RUSSIA’S recent deals with the EU
over the projected South Stream pipeline and TURKEY’S desire to join the EU as
motivating forces while TURKISH media see TURKEY aligning with the U.S. and the
EU aligning with RUSSIA.
What is clear is that as RUSSIAN
pressure on UKRAINE to hand over its gas pipeline network to Moscow grows, TURKEY’S
dependence on RUSSIAN gas becomes more of a liability especially as Moscow
thinks it can disregard TURKISH economic interests, as suggested above. Indeed,
an article in Moskovskiy Komsomolets observed that because Gazprom
refuses to lower its prices, an anti-Gazprom “movement” of sorts is developing
among EUROPEAN customers who are relying on the appearance of QATARI and ALGERIAN
LNG. Therefore Moscow must hope to restore the cuts in deliveries by making
deals with private TURKISH importers who are ready to negotiate terms. But it
is unlikely they will accept the onerous take or pay clauses and high prices
that feature so prominently in Gazprom’s contracts.
COMPLEX STRATEGIC ENERGY GAMES IN A GEOSTRATEGIC “MINEFIELD”
These are not the only problems in RUSSO-TURKISH
relations. A RUSSIAN strike team of eight agents killed three CHECHENS in
Istanbul execution-style in broad daylight, an event that obviously irritated TURKISH
officials, not just because there are many sympathizers with the CHECHENS and
other NORTH CAUCASUS insurgents in TURKEY, but because of the blatant disregard
for TURKISH sovereignty. Similarly, Moscow cannot be happy with TURKEY’S decision
to accept the components of the NATO missile defense system against which it
has been campaigning for over five years. TURKEY has also clearly lost any hope
that the Assad regime in SYRIA can or should be preserved, whereas Moscow
stands fully behind it. And finally, TURKEY’S opposition to CYPRUS’ drilling
for gas in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN and threats directed against it — and for
that matter against ISRAEL which has already found a huge amount of gas there —
have caused concern in RUSSIA.
RUSSIA AND CYPRUS
The RUSSIAN government recently
organized a large loan to CYPRUS to sustain it against a crisis should GREECE
default. Moscow did so because so many RUSSIAN accounts are held in CYPRIOT banks
and then reinvested in RUSSIA or used to launder the elite’s money by cycling
it out of RUSSIA into the global banking system. Clearly, Moscow cannot allow CYPRUS
to go under. TURKISH threats are therefore deeply disturbing to both the CYPRIOT
and the RUSSIAN governments.
Indeed, after TURKEY issued what
amounted to a threat against CYPRUS, after the CYPRIOT government signed an
agreement with the Texas based firm Noble Energy, which is also a partner with ISRAEL
in developing ISRAEL’S maritime gas fields, the RUSSIAN Ministry of Foreign
Affairs publicly backed CYPRUS’ right to develop its MEDITERRANEAN gas. CYPRUS
in turn labeled Moscow “a shield against any threats by TURKEY.”
TURKEYS GROWING INFLUENCE IN BOSNIA AND SOUTH EASTERN
BALKANS
ISLAMISATION AT THE DOORSTEPS OF EUROPE
As a result, some Russian media, like Pravda, now accuse Ankara of a
neo-Ottoman policy to revive the Ottoman Empire. Others have also noticed that RUSSIA
attacked TURKEY’S quest for influence among the BOSNIANS, a point that inflames
RUSSIA due to its traditional support for the SERBS. According to ISRAEL’S
former UN Ambassador Dore Gold, when RUSSIA looks at TURKEY it sees signs of a PAN-ISLAMIC
policy which seeks to mobilize support from the ARABS and from the MUSLIM communities
in the BALKANS, and this naturally is antipathetic to Moscow’s courtship of the
ORTHODOX SERBS.
SYRIA, RUSSIA, AND IRAN REFUSE TO HEED TO TURKISH
GEOSTRATEGIC AND POLITICAL INTERESTS
In fact, the clash of TURKISH-RUSSIAN
interests is part of a larger theme. They underline that the core idea of TURKISH
foreign policy during the last years, the notion that TURKEY can truly manage
to have no problems with all of its neighbors and serenely navigate along the
complex shoals of MEDITERRANEAN EUROPE, the MIDDLE EAST, and the CAUCASUS and
gain leverage throughout these zones, has proven to be unsustainable. There are
too many issues, some new and some very old, that make it impossible to uphold
this posture while everyone else is pursuing their own national interests that TURKEY
lacks the power to control.
At the same time, the refusal of
neighboring states like SYRIA, RUSSIA, and IRAN to heed TURKISH interests
clearly betokens the failure of the TURKISH government’s policy to increase TURKEY’S
standing and leverage among its neighbors especially when the issues involved
are central to the government’s economic and political objectives.
TURKEY’S recent foreign policy moves
have estranged ISRAEL, CYPRUS, GREECE, RUSSIA, SYRIA and IRAN; Ankara’s anti-ISRAELI
stance has certainly been a headache for U.S. policymakers. Although RUSSIAN
threats in the CAUCASUS and bullying tactics regarding energy in SOUTHEASTERN
EUROPE have added fuel to the fire, it is clear that the fundamental concept of
TURKISH foreign policy of the last several years has been weighed in the
balance and found wanting. So it is not surprising that TURKEY is now lashing
out and thrashing around, trying to assert itself in forceful rhetoric which,
however, may not be possible to sustain by equally forceful deeds.
TURKEY
POSSESSES CONSIDERABLE ECONOMIC ASSETS AND STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
It remains to be seen how Ankara
will be able to extricate itself from its current foreign policy troubles, and
how the consequences of going from seeking “zero problems” with all neighbors
to having “many problems” with most of them will be managed. TURKEY possesses
considerable economic assets and strategic importance. Nonetheless, it seems to
have overreached and based its foreign policy on unwarranted and unsustainable
presuppositions. But since greater powers than TURKEY have failed to secure
lasting influence and navigate the rapids of SOUTHEASTERN EUROPEAN and MIDDLE
EASTERN policies, Ankara’s inability to supplant them should come as less of a
surprise.
THE CUMULATIVE FOREIGN POLICY FAILURES OF TURKEY
Certainly, TURKEY alone cannot
resist RUSSIAN encroachments in the CAUCASUS and EUROPE, impose a solution to
the ARAB-ISRAELI conflict, ensure good governance in SYRIA and uphold its
security against IRAN all by itself. Upon sober reflection, Ankara may come to
better appreciate its need for Western friends and partners.
The fact that TURKEY decided to join
the NATO’s missile defense is a telltale sign of such a sobering. This might
even augur a return to the historic Kemalist, Westward orientation of TURKEY that
has been so antithetical to the ruling AKP’s ideology, though not necessarily
to all of its practice.
To be sure, that quest for
partnership with EUROPE has presently run aground, as TURKEY’S bid for EU
membership is met with the strong resistance of key EU countries, and as the
AKP government’s enthusiasm for pursuing the bid has cooled significantly since
2005. But a carefully prepared and a more limited objective may be within
reach, especially concerning TURKISH-EUROPEAN cooperation on energy policy as
well as defense policy.
The cumulative foreign policy
failures of TURKEY in all directions — the troubles with RUSSIA, the clash with
CYPRUS, the denouement of the partnership with SYRIA — ultimately speak of the
persistence of national interests and political differences that cannot always
be reconciled. TURKEY’S recent strategic rapprochement with the U.S. —
exemplified by the crucial decision to join the NATO’s missile defense shield
against IRAN — on the other hand, suggests that Ankara has indeed awakened to
this sobering reality. As its disappointing experiences in its neighborhood
have revealed the limits of what can accomplished with a “Neo-Ottoman”
approach, TURKEY may in fact be rediscovering the virtues of classical
republican foreign policy.
This article was first published in
the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. ©
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center,
2011.
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