COULD
BE A CATALYST FOR SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER
YEMEN is at the center of a proxy war between
regional heavyweights IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA. It's the source of fears of a
broader SUNNI-SHI'ITE conflict. And it has implications far beyond its borders.
Here is a look at the
stakeholders in the fight.
THE PLAYING
FIELD
The YEMEN conflict is a
tale of two’s:
Two leaders: Former President ALI ABDULLAH SALEH (A
SHI'A), who was replaced amid the ARAB SPRING uprising by his deputy, current
President ABDU RABBU MANSOUR HADI (a SUNNI)
Two regions: NORTH YEMEN and SOUTH YEMEN, which
merged in 1990, with SALEH as president
Two capitals: SANAA in the north, and ADEN in the
south
Two branches of
Islam: YEMEN is more than 99 percent MUSLIM, of which 65 percent are SUNNIS
of the SHAFI'I school of thought, and 35 percent are SHI'A of the ZAYDI school.
Two powerful
extremist groups: The HUTHIS are SHI'ITE rebels who first
took control over north YEMEN, forcing President HADI to flee, expanded their
control through most of the country, and are now moving on his refuge in ADEN.
Background Information: YEMEN
A CRITICAL BUT FORGOTTEN FRONT
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/08/yemen_21.html
SABER-RATTLING - JUST THAT AND NOTHING MORE
SABER-RATTLING - JUST THAT AND NOTHING MORE
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/04/saudi-iranian-saber-rattling-over-yemen.html
YEMEN FIGHTING RISKS DEEPENING SECTARIAN DIVISIONS
YEMEN FIGHTING RISKS DEEPENING SECTARIAN DIVISIONS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/08/yemen.html
SAUDIS HAVE LARGELY OVERSTATED IRANIAN INFLUENCE OVER THE HOUTHIS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/03/yemen-and-saudi-arabia_31.html
SAUDIS HAVE LARGELY OVERSTATED IRANIAN INFLUENCE OVER THE HOUTHIS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/03/yemen-and-saudi-arabia_31.html
In March, the group put
a bounty on HADI'S head, and used the YEMENI Air Force it largely controls
(with SALEH'S help) to strike ADEN, forcing HADI to go into hiding. The SUNNI militant
group AL-QAEDA in the ARABIAN PENINSULA is the most active AL-QAEDA franchise,
controls large areas of north-central YEMEN, and is pitted against the YEMENI government,
SAUDI ARABIA, the HUTHIS, southern separatists and, ultimately, the UNITED
STATES.
Two regional
backers: IRAN supports the HUTHIS, materially and
militarily; SAUDI ARABIA backs the YEMENI government headed by HADI, and on
March 25 led air strikes involving 10 ARAB countries against HUTHI rebels,
leading TEHRAN to denounce the intervention.
SUNNI SOLIDARITY
The countries involved
in the SAUDI-led air strikes are SUNNI, underscoring broader SUNNI solidarity
centered on GULF ARAB countries but which extends to EGYPT, SUDAN, PAKISTAN,
and TURKEY, among others.
Yemen will be the main topic of discussion at an ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN SHARM-EL SHEIKH, EGYPT, with HADI attending. Aside from
participants' role in the current YEMEN intervention, the gathering of foreign
ministers may move closer to establishing a joint ARAB military force. The idea
has been spearheaded by EGYPT and the PERSIAN GULF states as a way of combating
terrorism and staving off IRANIAN influence.
SAUDI ARABIA has
deployed about 100 aircraft in the YEMEN intervention, dubbed Storm of Resolve,
and planes from EGYPT, MOROCCO, JORDAN, SUDAN, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, KUWAIT,
QATAR, and BAHRAIN are also contributing.
SAUDI ARABIA is also is
contributing as many as 150,000 troops to the campaign, and EGYPT, JORDAN, and
PAKISTAN have expressed their readiness to take part in a ground offensive as
well.
SUDAN, which has had
traditionally good relations with TEHRAN, also said it was ready to send ground
troops.
GLOBAL OIL PRICES IMMEDIATELY SURGED ON NEWS OF SAUDI-LED
STRIKES IN YEMEN.
BENCHMARK BRENT crude
prices rose nearly 6 percent (to near $60 a barrel), before easing a little due
to fears that the military intervention could spark a broader regional conflict
and disrupt oil supplies. On March 27, prices fell more than $1 a barrel
(midday low $57.76) after GOLDMAN SACHS said the YEMEN campaign would have
little effect on global oil supplies.
SAUDI ARABIA, the
largest oil producer in the MIDDLE EAST, has been a central figure in the
global fall in oil prices that began in 2014. Oil accounted for some 90 percent
of SAUDI ARABIA'S budget in 2013, according to Reuters, yet RIYADH has
steadfastly refused to cut production to buoy prices.
IRAN has characterized
the fall in oil prices as the result of a SAUDI and U.S. conspiracy against TEHRAN,
whose oil income has been hurt by sanctions over its contentious nuclear
program, and RUSSIA, which relies heavily on oil income and is at odds with the
WEST over its intervention in eastern UKRAINE.
Background Information: THE ENERGY EQUATION
IRAN-IRAQ: PIPELINE TO SYRIA UPS ANTE IN PROXY WAR WITH
QATAR
IRAN - IRAQ - SYRIA GAS PIPELINE AGREEMENT A “WIN WIN”
SITUATION, BUT NOT FOR QATAR AND TURKEY
IS THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” THE ANSWER TO
FOREIGN INTERVENTION IN THE SYRIAN UPRISING? At http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html
ENORMOUS GAS FINDINGS AND PROSPECTS OF OIL FINDINGS
COMPLICATE TURKEYS STANCE IN THE REGION. At http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA WOULD DIMINISH RUSSIA’S IMPORTANCE
AS GAS EXPORTER AS WELL AS NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/01/syrias-destiny-sealed.html
and
RUSSIA
MOSCOW, which stands to
gain from any rise in oil prices, has been working the phones and playing the
peacemaker role since the SAUDI-led air strikes began.
Could
this be the reason for SAUDI ARABIA'S stance on oil supplies?
There's an incredible energy development we've been keeping track of for you over the past year... It's the reason SAUDI ARABIA is acting in desperation... depressing oil prices... and even risking internal unrest. Their (and OPEC’s) very survival is being threatened.
Background
Information: RUSSIA
RUSSIA
AND SAUDI ARABIA
There's an incredible energy development we've been keeping track of for you over the past year... It's the reason SAUDI ARABIA is acting in desperation... depressing oil prices... and even risking internal unrest. Their (and OPEC’s) very survival is being threatened.
Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN spoke with ISRAELI Prime Minister BENJAMIN
NETANYAHU and "expressed concern over the escalation of tensions in YEMEN,"
according to the KREMLIN press service. He also stressed the importance of
"intensifying international efforts to achieve a peaceful and lasting
settlement of the situation in the country."
In a telephone
conversation with IRANIAN President HASSAN ROHANI, PUTIN called for the
"immediate cessation of hostilities" in YEMEN -- read by the IRANIAN
press as a call for SAUDI ARABIA to halt its intervention -- and also expressed
satisfaction with progress made in the ongoing nuclear negotiations between IRAN
and the six world powers.
IRAN
As TEHRAN tries to cut a
nuclear deal in SWITZERLAND that will result in sanctions relief and allow it
to pursue a peaceful nuclear program, it must fend off criticism of a possible
deal from regional players ISRAEL and SAUDI ARABIA.
NETANYAHU has been openly
critical of the talks, which he argues are not going far enough to ensure that
IRAN cannot acquire nuclear weapons, and has raised the alarm about IRAN'S
growing influence in the region.
Background
Information: ISRAEL AND IRAN
Comment by
Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
As mentioned
numerous times on this blog, mainstream media and to some extend even
alternative media report that IRAN presents the most serious threat to ISRAEL,
and that IRAN’S nuclear threat should be a concern for the entire world is
mainly a convenient bargaining tool for both, ISRAEL and IRAN. In most
likelihood the behind the scene scenario looks rather different. Like with
AZERBAIJAN, ISRAEL may conduct secrete wheeling and dealings with the PERSIAN
state, a scenario not at all impossible, since ISRAEL’S new political doctrine
fosters geopolitical as well as economic alliances with non-Arab Muslim stated.
After all the two countries, in the not too distant past, had not always been
arch enemies. See:
ARE
IRAN AND ISRAEL REALLY ARCHENEMIES, OR IS IT JUST A FACADE?
IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL
AZERBAIJAN'S
ISRAEL DIPLOMACY TESTS IRAN
and
ISRAEL’S
IRAN “WARMONGERING RHETORIC’S” ARE DECEIVING TACTICS FOR A GREATER CAUSE
POLITICAL
DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND IRAN’S PRIORITIES IN THE REGION
ISRAEL
SUCCESSFULLY ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH NINE NON-ARAB MUSLIM STATES
ISRAEL’S
ARMENIAN, IRANIAN AND AZERBAIJAN EQUATION
RIYADH has expressed its
own concerns about IRAN'S encroachment in the region and has sparked fears of a
nuclear arms race by saying that any deal that allows IRAN to enrich uranium
will lead SAUDI ARABIA to seek the same.
IRANIAN Foreign Minister MOHAMMAD
JAVAD ZARIF, who is also IRAN'S chief nuclear negotiator, on March 26 demanded
an "immediate stop to the SAUDI military operations in YEMEN." He was
also quoted by the ARABIC-language Al-Alam news network as saying IRAN would
"spare no effort to contain the crisis in YEMEN."
TURKEY
TURKISH President RECEP
TAYYIP ERDOGAN, has been outspoken in his criticism of TEHRAN'S role in YEMEN.
"IRAN and the terrorist groups must withdraw," he told FRANCE 24,
alluding to HUTHI militants.
"We support SAUDI
ARABIA'S intervention," ERDOGAN said, adding that TURKEY "may
consider providing logistical support based on the evolution of the
situation."
IRANIAN Foreign Minister
ZARIF responded to earlier remarks by ERDOGAN in which he accused IRAN of
trying to dominate the MIDDLE EAST.
"The Islamic
Republic of IRAN is ready for cooperation with its brothers in the region to
facilitate dialogue between various groups in YEMEN to maintain unity and
return stability and security in that country," FARS quoted ZARIF as
saying.
Background
Information: ISRAEL, IRAN AND TURKEY
PROFOUND
STRATEGIC RIVALRY
SHIITE
PERSIANS VERSUS WAHHABI SAUDIS
The
MIDDLE EAST is pervaded and increasingly infected by the sectarian rivalry
between the SHIITE PERSIANS and the WAHHABI SAUDIS, who are now fighting proxy
wars all over the region. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html
TURKEY
AND SYRIA: AN UNDECLARED STATE OF WAR
SECTARIANISM
- “SUNNI CRESCENT” At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
IRAQ
IRAQ finds itself in a
tricky balancing act. It is relying on IRANIAN-backed militias to help beat
back an incursion by the hard-core SUNNI ISLAMIC STATE group on the ground, and
U.S. air support to strike IS from above.
The UNITED STATES agreed
to conduct air strikes in support of BAGHDAD'S effort to retake the SUNNI-stronghold
TIKRIT. Once QUDS Force commander QASSEM SOLEIMANI and his IRAN-loyal militias
had left the scene, U.S.-led air strikes followed.
During the ARAB League
summit in EGYPT, IRAQ can also expect to hear calls for its participation in
the establishment of a joint ARAB military force, an idea it has been reluctant
to endorse because of its ties to IRAN.
UNITED
STATES
YEMEN, once a poster
child of success for WASHINGTON, now adds to the complex challenges facing the UNITED
STATES in the MIDDLE EAST.
On the one hand, the UNITED
STATES is in the unlikely position of being on the same side as IRAN in
fighting IS in IRAQ.
But in SYRIA -- where it
is also targeting IS -- WASHINGTON is arming some of the groups fighting the IRAN-
and RUSSIA-backed regime of BASHAR AL-ASSAD.
And now, the UNITED
STATES finds itself backing (not yet militarily, but with logistical and
intelligence support) longtime ally SAUDI ARABIA against IRAN-backed militants
in YEMEN.
All this at a time when WASHINGTON
is trying to seal a nuclear deal with IRAN.
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from
the original article written by Michael Scollon for RFERL
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