A
HIGHLY POLARIZED NATION
Encouragement or autocracy?
"DANIEL will continue our great work!" Shouted ARGENTINE President CRISTINA
FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER at a campaign event with party colleague and presidential
hopeful DANIEL SCIOLI. The 58-year-old governor of the province of BUENOS AIRES,
who leads in polls with about 42 percent, remained as always discreet and noncommittal.
Background Information:
ARGENTINE ELECTIONS 2015
TRIO INFERNALE? MACRI,
CLARING GROUP AND ELIOTT MANAGEMENT
ARGENTINA AT A CROSSROAD
ARGENTINA, BARELY 30 YEARS OF
DEMOCRACY, A YOUNG NATION TRYING TO FIND ITS BEARING
ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE STIMULUS
AND NO AUSTERITY
Both of them belong to the PERONIST
party - a collective movement, ranging from neoliberalism, conservatism to socialism
and far the left. While KIRCHNER is considered a center left politician, SCIOLI,
who never was the first choice candidate of CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER, seems
a more moderate, business-friendly candidate with neoliberal tendencies that do
not differ much from his main adversary MAURICO MACRI. This makes it difficult
for the bourgeois opposition to snatch the Presidency from the PERONISTS
movement in this Sunday’s upcoming Presidential election. The best chances to
challenge SCIOLI, according to recent polls, has the mayor of BUENOS AIRES
MAURICIO MACRI, a right wing former businessman, who comes short of 30 percent.
MACRI is the son of a self-made immigrant
millionaire, who’s only real entrepreneurial achievement so far was
resurrecting the legendary BOCA JUNIORS soccer club from rock-bottom to a
successful club some years ago.
"Keep the current model"
versus "liberal market opening" are the alternative, for the
estimated 32 million eligible voters. The fact that both models have reached
their limits, making the decision for voters in ARGENTINA not any easier. The
neoliberalism of the 1990s ended with the financial crisis and insolvency of
the country in 2001. Then the KIRCHNER’S
emerged – first CRISTIAN’S late husband NESTOR, who died 2010 ruled the
country, only to be succeeded by his wife, who adopted a more autocratic stance on ruling the country, conducting
difficult and negotiations with the creditors, nationalized enterprises, and imposed
harsh currency exchange controls.
The model was successful: The
economy was growing, poverty declined 2003-2013 from 9.9 to 3.7 million, the
middle class doubled and the International Financial institutions fumed over
the ARGENTINE success story by defying neoliberal financial and economic
doctrines.
THE
REAL OPPOSITION IS THE MEDIA IN ARGENTINA
The hopelessly divided opposition
which in reality are self-seeking one man shows supported by the powerful CLARIN
media conglomerate argues that this success had been achieved through high
social transfers, bloated bureaucracy and subsidies that made electricity and
transport in ARGENTINA unbeatably cheap. The fall in commodity prices (soya, corn,
wheat etc.) cut deep in the states budget, thus making it difficult to maintain
the necessary level of spending.
Glancing at the economic data
shows that the country really is facing economic problems: The artificially
high peso casts a burden on the trade balance and inflation is estimated at 25
percent. The opposition also lambasts the current administration for being
corrupt. They refer to the rapid accumulation of wealth of the KIRCHNER family,
which also includes CRISTINA FERNANDES DE KIRCHNER’S son MÁXIMO, who is running
for senator in this Sundays upcoming elections.
The opposition, mainly individual
politicians, are deeply split in a center right and left movement which in
themselves are even further divided.
MACRI’s polls show that he only
has a chance if he manages to achieve a runoff. In such scenario the currently
third placed, dissident Peronist ex-MP and former Mayor SERGIO MASSA, could be
the tip of the scale.
In the final days of campaigning MASS
gained enormous ground over MACRI and thus could even end up in second place on
Sundays elections. According to some political observers, the chances of SCIOLI
winning in the first round have risen since MACRI’S campaign team has made some
serious tactical as well as strategic mistakes, thus loosing ground.
In summary the three candidate’s
economic stance does not differ too much from one another but are in deep
contrast to the current administrations economic model. The big question is
also if the three will continue to fight the hedge fund (also referred to as
vulture funds) of ELLIOT Management who have been in a legal battle over debt
issues with ARGENTINA for some time now and who have been facing increasing
criticism from the UN as well as other institutions for their questionable
business practices.
Background Information:
NEOLIBERALISM
VERSUS SOCIALISM
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS VERSUS ARGENTINA
THE GEOPOLITICS OF
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
ELLIOT CAPITAL HEDGE FUNDS, A
CLIENT AND SHAREHOLDER OF FITCH RATING AGENCY?
US COURT RULING ON ARGENTINE
BOND DEFAULT- THE PARIS CLUB, USA AGRICULTURE COMPANIES, AND INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL SPECULATORS “GRAB” FOR ARGENTINA
THE CENTRAL BANK OF ARGENTINA
BREAKS RANKS WITH NEO-LIBERAL BANKING POLICY AND TARGETS JOBS OVER LOWER
INFLATION
IMF PLEADS GUILTY BUT INSISTS
ON AUSTERITY
WALL STREET ANIMOSITY AGAINST
ARGENTINA
LATAM NOT ADHERING TO VULTURE
FINANCE SYSTEM DICTATED BY IMF, WORLD BANK AND CORPORATIONS
When ARGENTINA was the “Sunny
boy” of the IMF under president MENEM, who unquestionably followed IMF doctrine
of privatizing state assets......................................
CORPORATOCRACY......
ARGENTINA’S DEFAULT IN 2001, WHICH MANY ARGUE WAS CAUSED TO A LARGE EXTEND BY
THE IMF.......
ARGENTINA HAS REFUSED TO
SWALLOW THE IMF’S BELT-TIGHTENING RECIPES
Ultra-right candidate MACRI
clearly will heed to the neoliberal doctrines and pay the hedge funds in full,
thus putting the country once again into even higher debt and financial
dependence from organizations such as the IMF the WORLD BANK to name but a few,
thus fostering austerity and economic stagnation. But then again one cannot be
certain that SCIOLI will not do the same.
Our opinion for Sunday’s most likely
election outcome is as follows:
- SCIOLI wins the first round and MASSA could be the big surprise and emerge in second place
- SCIOLI will face a run –off with MASSA
- SCIOLI will face a run – off with MACRI in which MASSA once again will be the tip of scale in the run – off election bid.
ReplyDeleteAnalysts Predict: Your Financial Savings Will Be Gone In 12 Months
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Speak soon.
[Mr Mark Fidelman]