ANSWERING RUSSIA'S
CRITICS ON SYRIA
Were it not a serious issue, the righteous criticism of RUSSIAN
action in SYRIA would've a comedic attribute.
Last week's exchange between FOX NEWS host SEAN HANNITY and
Republican US presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP, saw HANNITY parrot some
provincially inaccurate comments about RUSSIAN action in SYRIA and how AMERICA
has been passive in opposing the KREMLIN. (HANNITY comes across as showing no
interest in assessing things from a mainstream RUSSIAN perspective. He's by no
means alone on that particular.) In that discussion, Trump astutely noted the
suspect manner among the anti-SYRIAN government forces that have received a
degree of support from the West. TRUMP'S comparatively reasoned approach on SYRIA
isn't without dispute.
SYRIA COMES TO THE
RUSSIAN CAUCASUS
UNLIKELY THAT RUSSIA
WILL SEND GROUND FORCES
Along with TRUMP, US President BARACK OBAMA'S characterization
of RUSSIA risking a "quagmire", ignores the reasonably stated KREMLIN
intentions. MOSCOW is essentially providing air support for the SYRIAN
government ground forces and nothing more for the moment. It's doubtful that RUSSIAN
ground forces will get involved with combat in SYRIA. RUSSIAN public opinion
seems generally non-supportive of that move.
In his recent UN General Assembly address, RUSSIAN President VLADIMIR
PUTIN pointedly spoke of not repeating past foreign policy blunders, with a
critical reference to the SOVIET habit of having an ideologically motivated
foreign policy. AFGHANISTAN saw a large scale SOVIET ground presence, unlike
what's anticipated with post-SOVIET RUSSIA in SYRIA. The KREMLIN seems to be of
the belief that the coordinated combination of RUSSIAN airpower and SYRIAN
ground forces can eventually succeed in curtailing the conflict, followed by a
better chance for a more peaceful restructuring of the political process in SYRIA.
With WESTERN support, the not so distant regime changes in IRAQ
and LIBYA haven't gone so well. Pragmatists understand that imperfect leaders
in troubled countries can't always be overthrown with less human suffering and
a greater regional/global security afterwards.
Background Information:
LIBYA
UNLIKE IN LIBYA, THIS
TIME AROUND RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL NOT TOLERATE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE EQUATION
WAS LIBYA GETTING A TOO
POWERFUL PLAYER IN AFRICA FOR WESTERN ENTITIES?
NATO’S WAR ON LIBYA AND
THE FREEZE OF LIBYAN FINANCIAL ASSETS PROFITED ALL THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS.
ISLAM – A CONVENIENT
TOOL FOR AMERICA’S GEO -STRATEGIC POLICIES?
POROUS BORDERS TURN
LIBYA INTO RADICAL SANCTUARY
VOLATILE SAHEL REGION
LIBYA’S INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY SPILLING OVER INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN
LIBYA - DOOMED FROM DAY
ONE
PAYBACK TIME FOR BEING LEFT
OUT OF THE LIBYAN EQUATION
Unlike in LIBYA, RUSSIA
and CHINA this time around will not tolerate to be left out of the SYRIAN
equation and energy game
RUSSIA'S REVENGE FOR LIBYA
As mentioned numerous times, RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they
were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the
USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN. CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to
the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept
completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western
coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed, namely tap
the oil reserves of LIBYA.
Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus
would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style
intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA
lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto
was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition
forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further.
Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by
Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June 2012 and included into this
analysis
THE “OPPOSITION
ALLIANCE” – RUSSIA, IRAN, IRAQ, CHINA AND EGYPT, AS WELL AS THE
OBAMA incorrectly characterized RUSSIA and IRAN as being
alone on SYRIA against an AMERICAN-led alliance of sixty nations. He omitted
the IRAQI government's support for RUSSIAN and IRANIAN attempts to better
position the SYRIAN government's standing. Furthermore, SYRIA'S KURDS and the EGYPTIAN
government, have given credence to the RUSSIAN move in SYRIA – one that has the
support of the UN recognized SYRIAN government. None of the BRICS (BRAZIL,
INDIA, CHINA and SOUTH AFRICA, in addition to RUSSIA) appear condemnatory
towards the KREMLIN'S move in SYRIA. There're indications that CHINA (if not
already so) will involve itself in SYRIA, in line with RUSSIAN activity there.
Around the time of PUTIN'S UN speech, US mass media reported
on the failure to find enough moderately acceptable SYRIAN anti-government
rebels. This particular news item got severely downplayed once RUSSIAN airstrikes
began. Out came the establishment pundits, articulating the notion that RUSSIA
wasn't striking ISIS positions, but so-called moderate opponents, who were
trained by the US government. Added was the charge that RUSSIA isn't really
interested in fighting ISIS.
RUSSIA DID NOT LAUNCH
AIRSTRIKES WITHOUT THE CONSENTED OF THE USA
Omitted was the rationale for having RUSSIAN planes attack
targets in SYRIA where the US and its coalition forces haven't been active.
This move decreases the likelihood of accidental mishaps. In coordination with SYRIAN
ground forces, the KREMLIN is of the reasoned impression that their airstrikes
have a better chance of success than the stated AMERICAN government led desire
to crush ISIS without working with SYRIAN government ground forces.
Far from jumping into SYRIA without a carefully thought out
plan, the RUSSIAN government has covered its angles well. This preparedness has
included the meeting between PUTIN and ISRAELI Prime Minister BENJAMIN
NETANYAHU in RUSSIA, shortly before the RUSSIAN airstrikes. PUTIN has followed
with an acknowledgement that as a regional Mideast power, ISRAEL has legitimate
concerns which shouldn't be overlooked.
NETANYAHU doesn't see RUSSIA in the same negative light as
the SYRIAN government and (to a greater extent) its LEBANESE SHIITE HEZBOLLAH and
IRANIAN allies. Hence, he likely sees the KREMLIN as a relatively good
influence on an imperfect situation – with an understanding of what might
regretfully happen if SYRIA'S government were to suddenly fall. In contrast to
NETANYAHU meeting PUTIN, the pro-ISRAELI Republican US presidential candidate CARLY
FIORINA, says that she would avoid PUTIN altogether in the role of AMERICAN
president. That stance serves to increase the possibility for an unintended
conflict between WASHINGTON and MOSCOW.
RUSSIA FACES A THREAT
OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM IN THE CAUCASUS
The KREMLIN and IRAN have stated the need for the SYRIAN
government to reform itself. Along with other nations, RUSSIA faces a threat of
Islamic extremism. The terrorist ISIS and AL-QAEDA entities have made clear
their displeasure with the RUSSIAN government.
Background Information:
CAUCASUS
SYRIA COMES TO THE
RUSSIAN CAUCASUS
THE CASPIAN REGION: A
FUTURE WAR ZONE?
SYRIA, RUSSIA, AND IRAN
REFUSE TO HEED TO TURKISH GEOSTRATEGIC AND POLITICAL INTERESTS
The belief that RUSSIAN behavior has nurtured an Islamic
backlash is on par with saying that 9/11 served as a comeuppance for US
actions. It's understandable that many AMERICANS and others would be disgusted
by the last part of thought. Conversely, it's appalling to have that idea
directed against RUSSIA. The anti-RUSSIAN leaning mindset among some key WESTERN
foreign policy politicos is out of touch with reality. ORTHODOX CHRISTIANS of
any stripe haven't flown planes into buildings, with the calculated goal to
kill on a grand scale.
PROPAGANDA WAR
As is true with any large country of varying ethno-religious
groups, RUSSIA isn't without tensions and room for improvement. Things there
aren't so bad as propagandistically stated in some influential to relatively
influential WESTERN circles.
Many people of MUSLIM background from CENTRAL ASIA and the CAUCASUS
have migrated to the mostly SLAVIC inhabited northwestern part of RUSSIA, for a
better life. The RUSSIAN republic of TATARSTAN has gotten good reviews, as an
example of multi-ethnic/confessional tolerance. The negatively depicted PUTIN
has condemned the past WWII collective punishment of the CRIMEAN TATARS. In
comparison, the pro-KIEV regime CRIMEAN TATAR activist MUSTAFA DZHEMILEV is on
record for saying that the RUSSIANS should leave CRIMEA.
ASSAD THE BETTER OPTION
Its clear faults aside, the SYRIAN government has been
comparatively tolerant towards different groups. Under the ASSADS – CHRISTIANS,
JEWS and women in SYRIA have fared much better than they have or (in the case
of JEWS and CHRISTIANS) would in SAUDI ARABIA and some other countries. A
typical western foreign establishment comeback to that observation will note
the fatalities related to some past and present SYRIAN government actions. The
follow-up notes the violent manner of the forces the SYRIAN government has
opposed and the issue of collateral damage involving civilians caught in the
crossfire.
Background Information: SYRIA AND ASSAD
We wrote in 2013:
SYRIA: ASSAD WINNING
THE WAR?
Assad pulls ahead in
SYRIAN war. Putin, Khamenei are co-victors. At http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/02/syria-assad-winning-war.html
SYRIA – ASSAD FIRM IN
SADDLE
IC (international
community) tactical retrieve, in order to avoid another LIBYAN style fiasco?
At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/01/syria-assad-firm-in-saddle.html
US INTELLIGENCE: ASSAD
FIRMLY IN CHARGE IN SYRIA. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syria.html
Comment by geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
COULD IT BE THAT KEEPING ASSAD IN POWER IS MAYBE
THE EXACT INTENTION OF ISRAEL?
In June 2012 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring
wrote: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS……….This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime
Minister would, on balance, prefer the ASSAD regime to continue; it is a known
quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective
balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’…..
Read entire article at:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-feasts-and-rites-of-confusion.html
COLLAPSE OF THE ASSAD
REGIME WILL LEAD TO A DESTABILIZING POWER VACUUM
THE ALAWITES AND ISRAEL
IT IS GENERALLY
BELIEVED THAT AMONG THE ARAB REGIMES SYRIA IS THE MOST IMPLACABLE ENEMY OF
ISRAEL. Read entire article at:
ASSAD OR JIHADISTS
COULD IT BE THAT
KEEPING ASSAD IN POWER IS MAYBE THE EXACT INTENTION OF ISRAEL?
The KREMLIN'S admission of the over flight of RUSSIAN
military planes over TURKEY was met with pious criticism about respecting the
airspace of a sovereign nation. RUSSIA claims this occurrence to be accidental.
No one was harmed as a result of it. That over flight is much different than
some others.
Yugoslavia didn't ask to be bombed by NATO in 1999. At
present, RUSSIA has been given the okay by the UN recognized SYRIAN government
to fly combat missions over SYRIA, much unlike OBAMA and his hyped coalition.
Following the incident over TURKEY, the RUSSIAN government responsibly invited
discussion on a coordinated effort with the US, TURKEY and others, to oppose
the terrorist elements in SYRIA.
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the
original article written by Michael Averko who is a New York based independent
foreign policy analyst and media critic
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