WHAT
ARE THE STAKES?
IRAN has a number of reasons to
prop up ASSAD, while IRAN’S ARAB rivals, especially in the PERSIAN GULF, and TURKEY,
are supporting the opposition groups including extremists to force him out of
office. The fall of ASSAD can bring into power SAUDI-TURKEY-backed successors
that would be anathema to IRAN.
First, IRAN and SYRIA along with
HEZBOLLAH in LEBANON constitute an “axis of resistance” and a ‘SHIA crescent”
in the view of IRAN’S rivals, and SYRIA is the only way that IRAN can keep
touch with HEZBOLLAH.
IRAN
CONSIDERS SYRIA A KEY ELEMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT
Second, IRAN is concerned about IRAQ,
which shares a long border with IRAN. IRAN considers SYRIA a key element in the
protection of the IRAQI government. If the SYRIAN government loses to SUNNI
extremist opposition groups, it can adversely impact the IRAQI government, and
directly threaten IRAN’S western border.
Third, SYRIA, which has been IRAN’S
only ARAB ally in the region, holds a significant position in IRAN’S
anti-imperialist revolutionary principles. Thus, it has been a vital figure in
helping IRAN break the isolation caused by being surrounded by a SUNNI and ARAB
majority. If SYRIA were to collapse, it would change the balance of power in
the MIDDLE EAST against IRAN, and lead to its further isolation.
Involvement in SYRIA is a
zero-sum game for IRAN, and the SAUDI ARABIA-TURKEY combine. IRAN sees SYRIA as
part of the solution while SAUDI ARABIA and TURKEY, would like to see SYRIA without
ASSAD. So, ASSAD’S government collapse will definitely have security, political
and economic repercussions for TEHRAN and damage IRAN’S credibility and
prestige as a revolutionary dominating state.
Background
Information:
A
CHALLENGING TIME FOR RUSSIA-IRAN TIES
A
SPY WHO TRIED TO SCALE KREMLIN WALL
SYRIA,
RUSSIA, AND IRAN REFUSE TO HEED TO TURKISH GEOSTRATEGIC AND POLITICAL INTERESTS
RUSSIAN
FORCES TAKE SYRIAN CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDER CONTROL
RUSSIA’S
MOTIVES
SYRIA’S alliance with RUSSIA
dates back to the days of the SOVIET UNION. There might have been some tactical
changes in their policies towards each other at certain times, but the nature
of their alliance has always been the same. SYRIA and RUSSIA’S opposition to
the West has brought the two countries close together.
RUSSIA has a naval military base
in TARTUS, SYRIA. This is RUSSIA’S only naval base in the MEDITERRANEAN, which
plays a vital role in RUSSIA’S SYRIA policy and its maritime doctrine. This is
significant motivation to support ASSAD.
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis
and Monitoring:
Worthwhile
to mention is that the RUSSIAN Naval base in TARTUS has only gained strategical
significance since the start of the civil war in SYRIA, prior to that the base
might have been, per decree of the SYRIAN Government, called “RUSSIAN NAVAL
BASE” but hardly ever saw RUSSIAN Naval movement or RUSSIAN military activity
per say. (Except of some RUSSIAN military advisor paying sporadic visits to the
base once in a while) As far as open
source Intel goes, the naval base, until the civil war was solely used by the SYRIAN
Navy. Since the beginning of the civil war however the navy base became the
political as well as strategic focal point of both the West and RUSSIA.
Unlike RUSSIA’S claim of
targeting the Islamic State (IS), most of RUSSIA’S recent strikes have been
planned in the WESTERN part of SYRIA – HAMA, LATAKIA and IDLIB – where anti-ASSAD
non-IS operatives dominate. This is in order to secure the naval bases, and
check any threat to ASSAD that could undermine RUSSIA’S authority in the
region.
JIHADISTS
FROM CHECHEN AND CAUCASUS ARE ANOTHER REASON THAT HAS BROUGHT RUSSIA TO SYRIA.
 |
| CHECHEN IS leader ABU OMAR AL-SHISHANI |
It is estimated that around 2,500
RUSSIAN nationals and 7,000 others from former SOVIET republics have joined the
IS and other Islamist groups fighting against ASSAD. Prominent among them is
the CHECHEN IS leader ABU OMAR AL-SHISHANI, who hopes to return home and fight
against MOSCOW after bringing ASSAD down. These jihadists could pose a big
threat inside RUSSIA’S borders. Hence, considering the frequent attacks by CHECHENS
inside RUSSIA, this is a national security issue for PUTIN and a pre-emptive
war.
Background
Information:
RUSSIA
NEEDS IRAN’S COOPERATION IN ORDER TO STRATEGICALLY SECURE THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
AND CENTRAL ASIA
For ASSAD, this is a question of
self-preservation. Without IRANIAN and RUSSIAN involvement, his government
would have toppled. From his point of view, there is no difference between
extremists such as the IS and seculars such as the SYRIAN Free Army. In fact,
secular fighters could very well be more threatening to ASSAD’S SYRIA than the
IS if the former are to grow in strength.
WHAT
BRINGS IRAN AND RUSSIA TOGETHER IN SYRIA?
IRAN and RUSSIA have become close
partners given common enemies, and common friends. Both, for different reasons,
share similar attitudes towards SYRIA.
According to the IRANIAN point of
view, extremists in SYRIA are supported by the US and its regional allies to
bring down ASSAD. IRAN’S cooperation with RUSSIA could therefore be a turning
point that could undo their attempt. Saving ASSAD means IRAN can secure its
regional hegemonic position and restore a favorable balance of power.
For RUSSIA, their victory would
mean removing opposition to ASSAD, which could also involve the crushing of CHECHEN
rebels before their return to RUSSIA. This would also allow RUSSIA to play an
international role and gain decision-making power in the SYRIAN crisis that
would, in turn, help RUSSIA expand its influence and emerge as a crucial player
in the region.
By Majid Izadpanahi via IPCS
No comments:
Post a Comment