Geo – Strategic Puzzle - Black Gold
Recent war mongering between IRAN and the USA regarding the blockage of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and the attempt by foreign entities to tumble the SYRIAN regime are most likely connected and part of broader geo strategic plan, orchestrated by SAUDI ARABIA, the USA and to some extend the UK.
NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?
Many geo strategic analysts and political experts are at odds over the reason why even the UNITED STATES, a key ally of ISRAEL, is pushing for a regime change in SYRIA, even if such move will probably turn SYRIA into a fundamentalist Islamic State at the doorsteps of ISRAEL. It could be argued that the USA and SAUDI ARABIA prefer a SUNNI fundamentalist Islamic government in SYRIA in order to eliminate IRANIAN influence in SYRIA and at the same time reactivate, for geo – strategic reasons, SAUDI ARABIA’S ARAMCO company constructed TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE “TAPLINE”
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Tapline route from Saudi Arabia to Lebanon, crossing Jordan,Syria and the Golan Heights
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REACTIVATION OF PIPELINE WOULD ELIMINATE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Reactivation of the pipeline would eliminate the geo strategic importance of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and thus IRAN’S leverage over the passage, through which 35% of the world’s crude oil is shipped. Needless to say, a blockade would have enormous global consequences. Sunni SAUDI ARABIA and Shiite IRAN have been at odds with each other over theological as well as economic issues for centuries (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz)
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Reactivating the Tapline in Dhaharan would reduce the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Looking at the map one also realizes why Saudi Arabia intervened in Bahrain for it could not afford to loose Geo strategic control over the peninsula.
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PIPELINE ROUTE LEADS THROUGH PRO IRANIAN SYRIA, THE GOLAN HEIGHTS AND LEBANON, THUS A SAUDI FRIENDLY REGIME IS REQUIRED IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THE PIPELINE
In order to reactivate the TAPLINE however, SAUDIA ARABIA and its allies need to eliminate IRAN’S influence in SYRIA and stronghold in LEBANON, which is also home to pro IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH, because the route of the pipeline leads over SYRIAN terrain, ISRAL occupied GOLAN HIGHTS, ending in the Mediterranean oil terminal ZAHRANI, south of the city of SAIDA in LEBANON.
Since SYRIA fosters close eco – political ties with Shiite IRAN, SYRIA will hardly permit the reactivation of the “SAUDI” Tapline on its soil. Not to mention the GOLAN HEIGHTS, which had been seized by ISRAEL during the 6 day war and which are now monitored by United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF. Israel and Syria technically are still at war, thus permitting reactivation of the Tapline on the Syrian side of the seized Golan Heights is out of the question, for it would need the consent of both, ISRAEL and SYRIA. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War )
By tumbling the SYRIAN regime however, SAUDI ARABIA would be able to expand its influence in SYRIA and LEBANON, and thereby gain control over the pipeline and direct access to the MEDITERRANEAN SEA oil terminal south of SAIDA, from where crude oil could be shipped to EUROPE and the USA, at 40% less transport costs than by oil tankers passing through the SUEZ Canal in EGYPT. One could now keep on speculating why the “Arab Spring” in EGYPT did not turned out the way it was expected to be expected by the protesters!
GEO STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF IRAN’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND GAS PIPELINE DEAL BETWEEN IRAN SYRIA AND IRAQ
Some analysts argue that Iran is bluffing with its threat to block the strait, for it can’t afford not to export its own oil resources which also have to pass through the strait.
What many forget though is that IRAN is not solely relying on oil export but also proves to be a major gas exporter, thus in August 2011, IRAN, SYRIA and IRAQ signed a gas pipeline deal which will transport Iranian gas via the new pipeline trough SYRIA to EUROPE. The deal benefits EUROPE and would also give SYRIA more strategic importance. Negotiations on constructing an IRAN - CHINA oil pipeline, although shelved for now, could easily be reactivated in case CHINAS demand for crude is increasing.
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA WOULD DIMINISH RUSSIA’S IMPORTANCE AS GAS EXPORTER AS WELL AS NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
By tumbling the ASSAD Regime, SAUDI ARABIAN and USA would also cause a serious economic as well as strategic blow to RUSSIA who’s only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea is located in the SYRIAN port city of TARTUZ. But asides from the military strategic point of view it would also mean that RUSSIAS gas exportation to the EU and other parts of the world would suffer a blow, because dependence on RUSSIAS gas supplies to various regions would diminish.
Looking at the SYRIAN issue from the natural resources point of view it becomes evident as to why the sudden change in strategy by key world players.
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA, FULL SCORE FOR ISRAEL?
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| Freshwater Supply For Israel |
As for ISRAEL a regime change in SYRIA in the end might not be such a bad deal after all. SAUDI ARABIA and ISRAEL have been fostering unofficially economic ties for quite some time because of both countries close ties to the USA and vice versa. ISRAEL would in most likelihood once and for all be able to keep the GOLAN HIGHTS, something the ASSAD regime would never have accept and always made it a precondition for peace talks with ISRAEL. For ISRAEL keeping the GOLAN HIGHTS on the other hand had been always a priority, not so much for strategic advantages or prestige, but for its freshwater supply, a key issue which is hardly addressed in mainstream media.
The minute SYRIA’S IRAN ties are cut; HEZBOLLAH would lose its influence in LEBANON and thus ease tensions on ISRAEL’S northern frontier. SAUDI ARABIA on the other hand would probably make sure that the SAUD ARABIAN friendly fundamentalist Islamic regime in SYRIA would keep its distance to ISRAEL in order to assure permanent oil flow from SAUDI ARABIA to the Mediterranean Sea, thus making SAUDIA ARABIA and its alley the USA an even bigger player in the oil market.
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