ISRAEL’S STRATEGY CHANGE ON SYRIA
All indicators point towards a regime change in SYRIA because of shifts in Geo - strategic interests. At the beginning of the SYRIAN “upraise” I wrote that a regime change in SYRIA is not going to occur, for reasons I stated in various articles posted on this blog. (Links to related articles are shown at the bottom of this article)
Now I have to revise my view on subject matter, the reasons of which are explained in the 2 articles, one of which had been posted on the 2 January 2012.
CHANGE OF PLANS
Current arms buildup in the LEVANTINE and STRAIT OF HORMUZ confirm the thesis that it’s all about natural resources and shifting geopolitical strategies. In recent past it would have been unthinkable that ISRAEL would promote a regime change in SYRIA, for the autocratic ASSAD regime, though technically still at war with ISRAEL proved to be a stable and calculable risk factor on ISRAEL’S eastern frontier, the GOLAN HEIGHTS and for the country itself. A regime change in SYRIA was considered a serious security threat for ISRAEL.
ISRAEL TO TAKE IN ASSAD ALAWITE SECT REFUGEES ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS ONCE THE ASSAD REGIME IS TUMBLED
That doctrine has suddenly changed, now we hear ISRAELI top military brass talking openly that ASSAD will not be able to stay much longer at the helm of the country and that ISRAEL is prepared to take in ASSAD’S ALAWITE SECT refugees on the GOLAN HEIGHTS, once the regime is tumbled.
LUCRATIVE SECURITY GUARANTEES AND SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF OIL EXTRACTION DEAL
In accepting a regime change in SYRIA, orchestrated by the USA and SAUDI ARABIA, ISRAEL must have received some lucrative security guarantees as well as a significant share of the natural resource extraction deal this entire warmongering and arms buildup in the LEVANTINE and STRAIT OF HORMUZ is about in the first place.
Converting SYRIA and LEBANON from its pro IRAN stance to a pro SAUDI ARABIAN and subsequently USA would pave the way to reactivate the defunct TRANS-ARABIAN PIPELINE (TAPLINE), along with other alternative routes going from the ARABIAN PENINSULA to the coast of the MEDITERRANEAN SEA via the LEVANTINE, thus reducing the strategic significance of THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, as claimed in the article originally published on 2 Jan 2012 on this blog.
ALL IN QUEST FOR BLACK GOLD
The strategic significance the STRAIT OF HORMUZ has for global oil supply, and the fact that the IRANIANS can militarily close it for a significant period of time has urged the USA its allies together with the GCC countries – SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR, BAHRAIN, KUWAIT, OMAN, and the U.A.E. – to re-route their oil through pipelines bypassing the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and channeling GCC oil directly to the INDIAN OCEAN, RED SEA, OR MEDITERRANEAN SEA. In a desperate move, the USA is also pushing IRAQ to seek alternative routes in talks with TURKEY, JORDAN, and SAUDI ARABIA, drawing the attention of ISRAEL and TURKEY who are also showing interest in this strategic project. ANKARA has had discussions with QATAR about setting up an oil terminal that would reach TURKEY via IRAQ. The TURKISH government has attempted to get IRAQ to link its southern oil fields, like IRAQ’S northern oil fields, to the transit routes running through TURKEY.
THE REAL REASON BEHIND TURKEYS AND ISRAEL RIFT IN RELATIONS IS ABOUT CONTROL OVER NATURAL RESOURCE IN THE REGION AND SUBSEQUENT GEO STRATEGIC DOMINANCE
This is all tied to TURKEY’S visions of being an energy corridor and important transit hub in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. This is also the real reason behind TURKEY’S rift with ISRAEL, for both are aware that those who control the ports along the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA and participate in gas and oil exploration will have the economic as well as strategical upper hand in the region.
See:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/09/warmongerning-between-israel-and-turkey.html
NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?
Article originally published on 2 January 2012
Many geo strategic analysts and political experts are at odds over the reason why even the UNITED STATES, a key ally of ISRAEL, is pushing for a regime change in SYRIA, even if such move will probably turn SYRIA into a fundamentalist Islamic State at the doorsteps of ISRAEL. It could be argued that the USA and SAUDI ARABIA prefer a SUNNI fundamentalist Islamic government in SYRIA in order to eliminate IRANIAN influence in SYRIA and at the same time reactivate, for Geo – strategic reasons, SAUDI ARABIA’S ARAMCO company constructed TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE “TAPLINE”
(See http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html ).
REACTIVATION OF PIPELINE WOULD ELIMINATE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Reactivation of the pipeline would eliminate the geo strategic importance of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and thus IRAN’S leverage over the passage, through which 35% of the world’s crude oil is shipped. Needless to say, a blockade would have enormous global consequences. Sunni SAUDI ARABIA and Shiite IRAN have been at odds with each other over theological as well as economic issues for centuries (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz )
PIPELINE ROUTE LEADS THROUGH PRO IRANIAN SYRIA, THE GOLAN HEIGHTS AND LEBANON, THUS A SAUDI FRIENDLY REGIME IS REQUIRED IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THE PIPELINE
In order to reactivate the TAPLINE however, SAUDI ARABIA and its allies need to eliminate IRAN’S influence in SYRIA and stronghold in LEBANON, which is also home to pro IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH, because the route of the pipeline leads over SYRIAN terrain, ISRAEL occupied GOLAN HEIGHTS, ending in the Mediterranean oil terminal ZAHRANI, south of the city of SAIDA in LEBANON.
Since SYRIA fosters close eco – political ties with Shiite IRAN, SYRIA will hardly permit the reactivation of the “SAUDI” Tapline on its soil. Not to mention the GOLAN HEIGHTS, which had been seized by ISRAEL during the 6 day war and which are now monitored by United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF. Israel and Syria technically are still at war, thus permitting reactivation of the TAPLINE on the SYRIAN side of the seized GOLAN HEIGHTS is out of the question, for it would need the consent of both, ISRAEL and SYRIA. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War )
By tumbling the SYRIAN regime however, SAUDI ARABIA would be able to expand its influence in SYRIA and LEBANON, and thereby gain control over the pipeline and direct access to the MEDITERRANEAN SEA oil terminal south of SAIDA, from where crude oil could be shipped to EUROPE and the USA, at 40% less transport costs than by oil tankers passing through the SUEZ Canal in EGYPT. One could now keep on speculating why the “Arab Spring” in EGYPT did not turned out the way it was expected to be expected by the protesters!
GEO STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF IRAN’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND GAS PIPELINE DEAL BETWEEN IRAN SYRIA AND IRAQ
Some analysts argue that Iran is bluffing with its threat to block the strait, for it can’t afford not to export its own oil resources which also have to pass through the strait.
What many forget though is that IRAN is not solely relying on oil export but also proves to be a major gas exporter, thus in August 2011, IRAN, SYRIA and IRAQ signed a gas pipeline deal which will transport Iranian gas via the new pipeline trough SYRIA to EUROPE. The deal benefits EUROPE and would also give SYRIA more strategic importance. Negotiations on constructing an IRAN - CHINA oil pipeline, although shelved for now, could easily be reactivated in case CHINA'S demand for crude is increasing.
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA WOULD DIMINISH RUSSIA’S IMPORTANCE AS GAS EXPORTER AS WELL AS NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
By tumbling the ASSAD Regime, SAUDI ARABIAN and USA would also cause a serious economic as well as strategic blow to RUSSIA who’s only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea is located in the SYRIAN port city of TARTUZ. But asides from the military strategic point of view it would also mean that RUSSIA'S gas exportation to the EU and other parts of the world would suffer a blow, because dependence on RUSSIA'S gas supplies to various regions would diminish.
Looking at the SYRIAN issue from the natural resources point of view it becomes evident as to why the sudden change in strategy by key world players.
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA, FULL SCORE FOR ISRAEL?
As for ISRAEL a regime change in SYRIA in the end might not be such a bad deal after all. SAUDI ARABIA and ISRAEL have been fostering unofficially economic ties for quite some time because of both countries close ties to the USA and vice verse. ISRAEL would in most likelihood once and for all be able to keep the GOLAN HEIGHTS, something the ASSAD regime would never have accept and always made it a precondition for peace talks with ISRAEL. For ISRAEL keeping the GOLAN HEIGHTS on the other hand had been always a priority, not so much for strategic advantages or prestige, but for its freshwater supply, a key issue which is hardly addressed in mainstream media.
The minute SYRIA’S IRAN ties are cut; HEZBOLLAH would lose its influence in LEBANON and thus ease tensions on ISRAEL’S northern frontier. SAUDI ARABIA on the other hand would probably make sure that the SAUDI ARABIAN friendly fundamentalist Islamic regime in SYRIA would keep its distance to ISRAEL in order to assure permanent oil flow from SAUDI ARABIA to the Mediterranean Sea, thus making SAUDI ARABIA and its alley the USA an even bigger player in the oil market.
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