GERMANY VIEWS SECURING ENERGY RESOURCES AS UTMOST STRATEGIC
IMPORTANCE
Via german-foreign-policy.com
GERMANY and the EUROPEAN UNION
depend increasingly on energy imports. Berlin views the geopolitical consequences of this dependence on energy
resources in other nations as of the utmost
strategic importance for its ambitions to gain more international
influence. For that reason, GERMANY has been urging for some time that the EU
engage in joint activities to assert political power. GERMAN government
advisors leave no doubt that Berlin and Brussels will also have to adjust to
using armed conflicts in the drive for diminishing energy sources in this intensifying economic and political
competition for power.
INCREASING NEED FOR ENERGY
Berlin's strategies of independent EUROPEAN
world power politics presume that securing the energy supply will decide the
fate of its far reaching plans for world power. Second to the USA, the EU is
currently the biggest importer and user of energy in the world and thus depends
to a great degree on access to (preferably low cost) foreign energy sources.
According to estimates by the EU commission, the oil and gas reserves of the EU
and NORWAY will last only another 25 years. Two thirds of the demand for oil
and gas must currently be covered by imports. The current dependency on imports
of 75% of oil from the OPEC states could increase to 85% by the year 2020. At
the moment the EU still covers 50% of the demand for natural gas from its own
sources. Since the BRITISH sources in the NORTH ATLANTIC will soon be depleted,
the demand for imports of gas will increase further.
Related
topics:
COULD IT BE
THAT THE TROIKA (ECB, IMF AND WORLD BANK) IN REALITY FOCUSES ON TAKING CONTROL
OF CYPRUS’S PROCLAIMED HYDROCARBON FINDINGS? Read entire article at:
GERMAN CONTROLLED ECB WILL
ESSENTIALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE MEDITERRANEAN ISLAND, AND SUBSEQUENTLY ITS
NATURAL GAS RESOURCES! Read entire article
at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/cypruss-financial-crisis-and-its.html
In this regard, Berlin is doubly affected: GERMANY has, on average, been 60%
(1999) more energy dependent compared to other EU member countries; it imports
about 98 % of its oil and 75% of its needed gas. GERMAN dependency on oil
imports will increase considerably: The economic ministry's prognosis suggests
a drastic increase of three to six times’ higher natural gas consumption.
Natural gas which has already become the most used energy in GERMAN industry
will be the basis of more than half of GERMANY'S energy by 2020. At the same time,
GERMAN energy companies already control a large part of the EUROPEAN energy
supply and now strive for a particularly dominant position in EUROPEAN natural
gas supplies. Several countries already depend considerably on GERMAN companies
for the shipping and sale of natural gas. Berlin's expert advisors on energy
policies, principally, see the following options for the future increase of oil
and gas imports: RUSSIA, the MIDDLE EAST. CENTRAL ASIA, and to a lesser extent AFRICA.
AFRICA AS A BACKYARD
- GERMAN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTIONS
Berlin increasingly strives for
access to the energy sources of AFRICA which is viewed as Europe's backyard because of its connection
with the colonial past. Advisers to Berlin's government explain that EUROPE must consolidate its
relations with AFRICAN oil and natural gas providers in order to secure its
energy supply. GERMAN corporations are expanding their involvement in NORTH
AFRICA, i.e. in LIBYA, RWE invested in oil and natural gas production. The
foreign office is interested in CHAD. There, significant oil reserves are to be
channeled via pipeline through CAMEROON to the GULF OF GUINEA where
considerable oil and natural gas resources are located as well. The government
of the booming oil state EQUATORIAL GUINEA already promotes GERMAN involvement
in its country. In the current crisis region of SUDAN, a GERMAN company is to
build a railroad which, among others, will serve to transport oil from the
South of SUDAN.
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
Interesting to note is
that the focus on almost all geopolitical and strategic activities, be it the
MIDDLE EAST, the BALKANS, ASIA and last but not least AFRICA, are focused on
what the USA, CHINA, SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN and the UK etc. are pursuing in these
regions. Rarely is one being made aware of GERMAN geopolitical and strategic activities
in previously mentioned parts of the world. In view of these facts, GERMANY manages
quietly and virtually undetected to pursue its Geo-strategic objectives in
order to increase its economic as well as strategic presence around the globe.
Some samples regarding such analysis are provided below in related links, none of which mentions Germany’s Geo strategic
role in the area:
SUB
SAHARA AFRICA, EMERGING MARKETS OF TOMORROW at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/argentina-and-africa.html
AFRICA IS FORECAST TO EMERGE AS THE FASTEST-GROWING REGION IN THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/africa-and-usa.html
AFRICAN RESOURCE BOOM at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html
WEST AFRICAN OIL REMAINS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT PROVIDES AN ALTERNATIVE TO PERSIAN GULF OIL at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/usa-china-and-africa.html
AFRICA IS FORECAST TO EMERGE AS THE FASTEST-GROWING REGION IN THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/africa-and-usa.html
AFRICAN RESOURCE BOOM at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html
WEST AFRICAN OIL REMAINS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT PROVIDES AN ALTERNATIVE TO PERSIAN GULF OIL at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/usa-china-and-africa.html
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP” WITH
RUSSIA… AND GAZPROM
At the moment, however, GERMANY and
the EU are primarily occupied with large importing oil and gas from RUSSIA.
This is expressed in the EUROPEAN-RUSSIAN energy partnership which had been proclaimed in October
of 2000. This connection is primarily a GERMAN-RUSSIAN one: Strategic projects for energy
supplies were the focal point of the summit in Jekaterinburg in October of
2003. With this specifically GERMAN-RUSSIAN strategic partnership, Berlin intends to reduce the
influence of other WESTERN STATES and corporations on the supply of the EU
states, especially concerning increasingly important natural gas.
Related topic:
RUSSIAN ENCROACHMENTS IN THE
CAUCASUS AND EUROPE. Read entire article
at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html
TRANS-ANATOLIAN PROJECT WILL MAKE AZERBAIJAN INDEPENDENT FROM
RUSSIA Read entire article at:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-energy-dependency-on-countries.html
In July of 2004 this cooperation was
expanded: An agreement with Gazprom (the world’s largest producer of natural
gas) facilitates the participation of GERMAN companies in the complete
processing chain of RUSSIAN gas production for the first time - from
exploration and transport through the new pipeline to marketing in WESTERN
EUROPE. An additional project is a new gas pipeline from RUSSIA through the
Baltic Sea to GERMANY. Such move is to pressure, and possibly excludes, the UKRAINE
and POLAND, whose territory had been originally planned for the transit, but
which could possibly become unstable and subject to USA pressure.
GERMAN close cooperation with RUSSIA
is solidified further with the discussion group ”GERMAN-RUSSIAN ENERGY COOPERATION," established by
representatives of the economies of both states in March of 2003, and with GERMAN-RUSSIAN energy summits of
which the next one will take place in Moscow in September.
GREAT INTEREST IN THE
GULF REGION
The particular reason for the energy
alliance with RUSSIA, which will supply approximately one third of GERMAN oil
and gas imports, are the imponderables of developments in the MIDDLE EAST and PERSIAN
GOLF regions. According to the unofficial GERMAN ASSOCIATION FOR FOREIGN POLICY
(DGAP), strategic trends of a potentially increasing dependency of the EU on
significant oil and gas imports caused competition with the US and its energy
policies. GERMANY is annoyed because the EU has turned into a “(junior-)
partnership” with the US due to Washington's militarily reinforced position of
power.
COOPERATION IN SHAPING A”NEW ORDER"
Berlin's political advisers of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP
or foundation for science and policy), criticize the EU for disavowing any
assertion of geopolitical interests,
although for EUROPE the stakes in energy policy interests are more
important than those of the USA: While the EU depends, for a large part of its
energy supply, on resources from the MIDDLE EAST, it has fewer alternatives.
Thus, the EU should have a “tremendous
interest in access to the natural gas resources of the GULF REGION especially
since RUSSIA'S production of natural gas has been decreasing since 1990.
Therefore the SWP recommends cooperation with the USA in the new order of
the GULF REGION: It would be sensible
if the current crisis in the Gulf is used to define European interests
concerning its guaranteed supply and, if necessary, implement a consistent
policy.
GERMANY,
IRAN AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS
The focus is especially on IRAN
which holds 15% of the world's oil reserves. Berlin's intention is to decrease GERMAN
dependence on RUSSIAN energy reserves with the help of IRANIAN natural gas.
However, transfer of gas and oil to GERMANY still has to be organized which
could create further conflicts. IRAN'S agreement for the construction of a gas
pipeline to ARMENIA caused considerable disagreements between Moscow and Erewan
which, until now, has been considered RUSSIA'S closest ally in the southern CAUCASUS.
RUSSIAN specialists fear that the pipeline would be extended through GEORGIA
and under the BLACK SEA to EUROPE and could diminish the sales of RUSSIAN
natural gas in EUROPE. In view of these disagreements over the pipeline, the
foreign office engaged in intensive activities concerning the CAUCASUS, which
could complicate the struggle for dominance in the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS even
further.
EXCLUSIVE CONNECTION WITH THE
CAUCASUS
In order to secure the unhampered energy supply from the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA, the CAUCASUS is of great geo-strategic significance for GERMAN-EUROPE. Berlin views the EU as a good starting point to challenge the RUSSIAN claim to power further in this region: The SWP clarifies that the various activities (OSZE, Energy Charta agreement, membership of all states of the CAUCASUS in the COUNCIL OF EUROPE, partnership and agreements of cooperation with the EU) would offer the basis for an exclusive connection of the CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN region with EUROPE. Advisers to Berlin's government demand that in this case a further involvement, which might include military intervention (”contribution to conflict resolution") and a coordinated EU strategy for the region. It should include a EUROPEAN contribution to conflict resolution and a connection with EUROPE beyond the threshold of EU membership as well as the design and the conversion of a transport infrastructure which would conform to EUROPEAN interests in securing [energy] supplies.
In order to secure the unhampered energy supply from the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA, the CAUCASUS is of great geo-strategic significance for GERMAN-EUROPE. Berlin views the EU as a good starting point to challenge the RUSSIAN claim to power further in this region: The SWP clarifies that the various activities (OSZE, Energy Charta agreement, membership of all states of the CAUCASUS in the COUNCIL OF EUROPE, partnership and agreements of cooperation with the EU) would offer the basis for an exclusive connection of the CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN region with EUROPE. Advisers to Berlin's government demand that in this case a further involvement, which might include military intervention (”contribution to conflict resolution") and a coordinated EU strategy for the region. It should include a EUROPEAN contribution to conflict resolution and a connection with EUROPE beyond the threshold of EU membership as well as the design and the conversion of a transport infrastructure which would conform to EUROPEAN interests in securing [energy] supplies.
EU'S ENERGY POLICIES ARE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THOSE OF
THE US
Generally, the energy policy
advisers to Berlin's government assume that, in the future, GERMANY and the EU
will have to assert themselves in a more intense competition for such strategic
resources as oil and gas. They say that, in view of the potential increase of
the EU's dependency on larger oil and gas imports from the MIDDLE EAST and the PERSIAN
GOLF, its own interests are already in conflict with AMERICAN energy policies. Similar conflicts
are also foreseen in other supply regions. According to present estimates, the
amount extracted by RUSSIA will not be sufficient to supply ASIA and EUROPE
with the necessary amounts of oil and gas simultaneously. Thus they predict
that in the future the EU might compete with ASIA and the USA for a partnership with RUSSIA. In CENTRAL
ASIA, as well, an intensified economic
and political competition for power especially with JAPAN, INDIA, the US
and eventually RUSSIA over diminishing energy sources, cannot be precluded.
Energy
Related articles:
ASIAN
ECONOMIC GROWTH, A THREAT TO GERMAN EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY
The rapidly increasing need for energy which is linked to the economic growth of ASIA, especially CHINA, is seen as a new threat to the GERMAN-EUROPEAN secure supply. The ASIAN countries are - as is the EU - increasingly dependent on importing energy. China (PRC) has already become the world's second largest consumer of energy next to the US. In particular, the Berlin strategists perceive a threat because CHINA seeks access to energy resources especially in those countries in which western energy companies are not well represented (i.e. IRAN, IRAQ, YEMEN or SUDAN). That CHINA, as well as INDIA, combine their energy cooperation with supplying states in relations to political, economic, military and military technology issues, provides them with increasing influence on these states and strengthens their position in the global theatre. This presents numerous challenges not only for the USA but also for EUROPE and these geopolitical implications have, so far, not been sufficiently considered.
The rapidly increasing need for energy which is linked to the economic growth of ASIA, especially CHINA, is seen as a new threat to the GERMAN-EUROPEAN secure supply. The ASIAN countries are - as is the EU - increasingly dependent on importing energy. China (PRC) has already become the world's second largest consumer of energy next to the US. In particular, the Berlin strategists perceive a threat because CHINA seeks access to energy resources especially in those countries in which western energy companies are not well represented (i.e. IRAN, IRAQ, YEMEN or SUDAN). That CHINA, as well as INDIA, combine their energy cooperation with supplying states in relations to political, economic, military and military technology issues, provides them with increasing influence on these states and strengthens their position in the global theatre. This presents numerous challenges not only for the USA but also for EUROPE and these geopolitical implications have, so far, not been sufficiently considered.
WAR GAMES
GERMANY urges that the EU should
actively increase its political as well as its military power. Concepts based almost exclusively on
factors and requirements of the market economy, are not sufficient for the
preservation of WESTERN energy security, thus: The “game of the market powers" will be dominated, even
determined, considerably by political power factors in a political crisis or
during military conflicts. The GERMAN advisers to the government therefore
demand that GERMANY and the EU must prepare for military conflicts in order to
secure future supplies of energy.
The “Bundesakademie fuer Sicherheitspolitik" (federal academy for security policy) which, as a center for strategy of GERMAN war policy and, discusses in a current publication the geopolitical effects of open energy issue. It argues that this is of greatest strategic significance in striving for a joint foreign and military policy of the EU member states. This makes it compellingly necessary that for future GERMAN and EUROPEAN energy policies increased foreign and security policy factors will have to be considered.
The “Bundesakademie fuer Sicherheitspolitik" (federal academy for security policy) which, as a center for strategy of GERMAN war policy and, discusses in a current publication the geopolitical effects of open energy issue. It argues that this is of greatest strategic significance in striving for a joint foreign and military policy of the EU member states. This makes it compellingly necessary that for future GERMAN and EUROPEAN energy policies increased foreign and security policy factors will have to be considered.
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