GERMANY AND IRAN

THE NEXT ROUND

Via German-Foreign-Policy.com

In the aftermath of IRAN'S presidential elections, GERMAN foreign policy specialists and government advisors are pushing for a new round in the power struggle with Teheran. Even before votes were cast, GERMAN specialists were calling for using the personnel change to launch a new round in the dispute over IRAN'S nuclear program. The conditions are now considered unusually favorable. The winner of the elections, Hassan Rohani is "in favor of compromises in the nuclear dispute and a normalization of relations with the USA." Whereas some experts on IRAN are pleading for using cooperation programs, "killing Teheran with kindness" - others are still in favor of pursuing confrontation approaches. For example, one of Chancellor Helmut Kohl's former advisors proposes that the more than 3,000 members of the People's Mujahedin of IRAN, trapped in IRAQ, be taken from that country. In the past, the West had considered them as a possible core for a subversive military insurgent movement in IRAN. The EU should also address the IRANIAN people directly - for example, using internet PR campaigns or through the recently founded "European Endowment for Democracy," which has the task of strengthening subversive forces against undesirable regimes.

COMPROMISES IN THE NUCLEAR DISPUTE

Even before the IRANIAN presidential elections, GERMAN specialists in foreign policy were pleading for a readjustment of GERMANY'S and the EU's approach to Teheran. The pending new constellation of the IRANIAN establishment offers a good "opportunity" for doing this, explains, for example, Cornelius Adebahr, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Since Hassan Rohani has won the elections, experts are now insisting even more on progressing in the negotiations. The moment is seen as advantageous, because Rohani is considered part of a political spectrum that is more open to the West, than that of his predecessor President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Also preceding the elections, IRAN specialist Bahman Nirumand, speculated that he may even "introduce a fundamentally new foreign policy." Rohani "strongly criticized Ahmadinejad's foreign policy" declaring that "he does not master the art of diplomatic negotiation," but rather used "inflammatory rhetoric, which has brought the country to the brink of war." Rohani, on the other hand, "seeks compromises in the nuclear dispute and a normalization of relations with the USA."

WEAKENING IRAN WITH COOPERATION HAS BEEN REPEATEDLY DEMANDED BY GERMANY

A plea for an "embracing strategy" is one of the proposals for the approach to Teheran, now making the rounds in Berlin. As the IRANIAN-ISRAELI foreign policy expert, Meir Javedanfar wrote in "Internationale Politik", the sanctions against IRAN are showing effects: they "could become an existential threat to the regime." The West should therefore intensify the negotiations. One should not "get tired" of "making proposals to the other side." In the long run, Teheran would not be able to evade them. Javedanfar is circumscribing the attempt to wear down the adversary using means of cooperation rather than direct confrontation. For example, "imagine a boxing match. Rather than throwing punches at the contender, you bear-hug him. It is the tying him up that wins points and weakens the adversary." Weakening IRAN with cooperation has been repeatedly demanded by GERMAN foreign policy specialists. The specialized journal "Internationale Politik" calls this strategy "killing with kindness."

SUPPORT THE RESISTANCE

Even though the "embrace strategy" is gaining ground in Berlin since Rohani's electoral victory, proposals of aggressive confrontation have still remained on the table. Horst Teltschik, a former advisor to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who served from 1999 to 2008 as the director of the Munich Security Conference, pleads for such an approach. Teltschik demands that "the opposition forces in IRAN" must be "given the public signal and therefore the assurance that their resistance is not only being honored, (...) but also supported." This expert makes his call even more concrete with a demand "to free the People's Mujahedin of IRAN (MEK) from the grip of the IRAQI leadership." (The more than 3,000 member People's Mujahedin is currently being held in Bagdad by the pro-IRANIAN IRAQI government.) For some time, Teltschik has been campaigning for providing MEK asylum in GERMANY - an unusual step for GERMANY, which usually turns refugees away. At times, over the past few years, the MEK had been considered a core element for a subversive military movement in IRAN. It should "be politically supported," according to Kohl's former advisor.

Background Information: SEVENTY PERCENT OF IRAN'S 74 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER 35 http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/10/iran.html

IRAN: WEAPON FOR CHANGE - DEMOGRAPHY

WHILE THE U.S. PURPORTS TO HAVE A STRATEGY FOR NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS, WHY IS THERE NO STRATEGY FOR WOOING THE YOUNG IN IRAN?

"Death to AMERICA" has been the rallying cry of IRAN'S Islamic Revolution since the late 70s, and images of IRANIAN radicals chanting the regime's favorite slogan have made a lasting impression in AMERICAN minds.

But there is a huge misunderstanding in the West about IRANIANS as religious fanatics. For many young IRANIANS, hatred of their own government is all consuming, and they stand fiercely against the corrupt religious regime. So why wouldn't we consider anyone who hates the current IRANIAN regime as possible allies?

SEVENTY PERCENT OF IRAN'S 74 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER 35

and have no real memory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Fifty percent of the IRANIAN population is under 25 and very well educated. Many of these young people joined the democracy protests in 2009, but were severely beaten and are now afraid to speak out against their country. While the 2009 demonstrations didn't lead to an EGYPT-style revolution, they did permanently alter the landscape of IRANIAN politics.

To the dismay of the IRANIAN government, and despite their strong arming tactics, their youth often look upon the UNITED STATES, if not warmly, at least with some jealousy. Many young IRANIANS have access to the Internet and satellite television, which is banned but still widely used. And they long for what AMERICANS enjoy: freedom, liberty, equality and justice. They often describe themselves as the "burnt generation," and many young IRANIAN bloggers say they await the opportunity to once again take to the streets to express their disapproval of their spiritual leadership's aggressive policies.

IRAN IS ONE OF THE MOST TECH-SAVVY SOCIETIES

The Broadcasting Board of Governors conducted a phone survey in March and reported that over one third of IRANIANS watch satellite television. The IRANIAN police go house to house and take the dishes away, but most do not issue any fines. Pirated music, videos and video games are also widespread. Many IRANIAN youths push the legal limits sometimes to a breaking point. Millions go to websites such as Facebook that are blocked by the government but accessible to anyone with some technical knowledge. IRAN is one of the most tech-savvy societies in the developing world, with an estimated 28 million Internet users, led by youth.

According to the UNITED STATES Institute of Peace, "IRANIAN youth are among the most politically active in the 57 nations of the Islamic world and represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule. IRAN'S youth are increasingly pivotal to elections. After the 1979 revolution, the voting age was lowered to 15, but later raised to 16 then 18, as the theocrats recognized the youth's political power. The young constitute nearly 40 percent of the electorate, a number expected to grow over the next decade. Whether they vote, and how, will be a major factor in the 2013 parliamentary elections, the regime's next official test."

IRAN is one of the youngest societies in the world, skewing politics, the economy and social pressures, and the sheer number of well-educated youth is one of the biggest threats to the current regime. But even with a university degree, it takes two to three years to find a job, and many are chronically unemployed, left frustrated, angry and ready for change. According to the IMF, IRAN has one of the world's highest rates of brain drain.

In April, Al Arabiya News reported, "The increasing infighting between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad has given even more hope to the many young IRANIANS in the pro-democracy movement. The infighting between these leaders is more than an indication of their lack of popular support. It is a sign of their weakness and myopia, not to mention a golden opportunity for young reformers to swoop in. It may happen during the next presidential election in mid-2013 or it may happen sooner, but whatever the case, sometime soon political power will land in the laps of young IRANIANS. When it does, change will follow. In the meantime, the children of the Islamic Revolution are still stirring, and as the old chaps fight among themselves, young women and men are setting the stage for a new day in IRANIAN politics."

Rising education, erosion of government restrictions on information and an expanding middle class are the key to change in IRAN. Given some time to let the young mature and have children of their own, IRAN could become more like TURKEY in the future.

So while the U.S. purports to have a strategy for nuclear negotiations, why is there no strategy for wooing the young in IRAN?

A war with IRAN will only strengthen the hatred IRANIANS have for the West, including the on-the-fence burnt generation. The West should consider using the IRANIAN youth—not bombs—as their weapon for change.

DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE POPULATION

At the same time, DGAP associate fellow, Cornelius Adebahr, makes proposals that could lead to an aggressive confrontation as well as to a cooperation strategy of embrace. Adebahr favors establishing a special "TASK FORCE IRAN" within the EU to consolidate all activities concerning IRAN. Parallel to this task force, he also favors a reinforcement of the EU's internet PR propaganda, for example, through the creation of a Persian language "virtual embassy." This could provide a means of "explaining" to the internet-enthused IRANIAN population the "EU's policy" toward their country. But, above all, Adebahr proposes that the EU address "the masses of the people, directly" - with PERSIAN language internet publications. This will offer a means for denouncing Teheran's violations e.g. of rule of law, freedom of the press or labor rights. This foreign policy specialist has concrete ideas about possible instruments for stirring up the IRANIAN people against their government, such as foundations, like the GERMAN party-affiliated foundations or the "European Endowment for Democracy." The latter was recently created to furnish support to subversive forces in foreign countries. Adebahr has good access to Brussels: He is a member of "Team Europe," a "network of experts" of the EU Commission.

PRESSURE ON TEHERAN

 While the diverse strategy variations for wearing down IRANIAN resistance to western hegemony over the Persian Gulf are being discussed, Berlin is intensifying its pressure on the government in Teheran. Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, said his government "expects IRAN to do its part to help bring about a swift diplomatic solution to its standoff with the West over its disputed nuclear program." The newly elected IRANIAN President must now "assume his responsibility in terms of sobriety and hope," writes the foreign ministry. Hassan Rohani will take office in August; however the dispute around his foreign policy course has already begun.