ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and
Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
TURKEY AND ISRAEL, BEYOND THE
BALKANS: THE CAUCASUS AND AFRICA
Reaching out to mutual allies – the
most obvious and most extensively involved of course being the US – has also
helped both ISRAEL and TURKEY sustain relations during the three-year impasse.
US diplomatic sources reveal that despite the apparent lack of progress since
May 2010, it was not due to lack of trying; in addition to the official visits,
former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made several secret trips to Ankara to
try and get some traction from a stubborn TURKISH leadership.
There are other mutual, but
sometimes overlooked allies too, which play a key role in ISRAEL’S containment
of IRAN but which are never mentioned in the context of wider bilateral Israel-TURKEY
relations in other areas like the BALKANS. In this light, AZERBAIJAN is a vital
ally to both ISRAEL and TURKEY, borders on IRAN, and thus becomes potentially
important in a number of ways. Is it possible that the country has facilitated
or could facilitate information-sharing between TURKEY and ISRAEL more
discreetly during periods of public political discord?
Background Information:
ISRAELI AND AZERBAIJANIAN RELATIONS, A GENIUS
CHESS MOVE. Read entire article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html
ISRAEL AND AZERBAIJAN BILATERAL COOPERATION
Veteran CANADIAN war reporter Scott
Taylor, who has traveled in and written extensively on TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN,
notes that “intelligence agencies work on entirely different circuits than that
of the diplomatic corps- policy differences would not preclude the necessity to
share information on common threats, if necessary.”
Interestingly, as with ALBANIA under
Berisha, Baku has shown a bit of independence from its ethnic kin in TURKEY.
This owes less to nationalism (as is the case with ALBANIA) and more to a new
confidence and prominence as its wealth and geostrategic value have increased.
A senior AZERBAIJANI diplomat addressed the question for Balkanalysis.com thus:
“I cannot comment on the matter of intelligence cooperation in particular, but
in general terms our relations with ISRAEL is strong and multifaceted, and we
don’t look for the approval of this relationship from a third state, for
example, TURKEY.”
“The only common approach between AZERBAIJAN
and TURKEY towards Israel (or more precisely ISRAELI-Palestinian conflict) is
that we are both for the two-state solution and we are supporting the
independence of Palestine,” the diplomat continued. “AZERBAIJAN’S stance
on this matter sits ok with ISRAEL, and does not hinder AZERBAIJAN-ISRAEL bilateral
cooperation. There are a number of other issues (the Holocaust, anti-Semitism)
where our position is also clear, and appreciated by ISRAEL.”
AZERBAIJAN: GROUND ZERO FOR INTELLIGENCE WORK
Something that was particularly
appreciated by ISRAEL (as stated by
President Shimon Peres) last January was AZERBAIJAN’S disruption of a
terrorist plot involving IRANIAN and AZERBAIJANI citizens. Authorities in Baku
stated that terrorists had planned to attack Jewish schools and to bomb the ISRAELI
embassy, “to avenge the death” of Hezbollah’s Imad Muganiyah (a possible
similar motive behind the Burgas bombing mentioned above). Just a few weeks
after, the London Times published a feature in
which an unnamed ISRAELI operative spoke of Baku as being “ground zero for
intelligence work,” and discussing the presence of IRANIAN, AMERICAN and ISRAELI
intelligence in this Caucasus country bordering IRAN.
These comments and the general
context become even more interesting in light of recent publications on the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI
strategic alliance. A
comprehensive article by Mahir Khalifa-Zadeh for the IDC Herzliya’s GLORIA
Center discusses the intricacies of ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI relations and active
regional players IRAN, RUSSIA and ARMENIA. The author also discusses Baku’s
proactive role during the breakdown in ISRAELI-TURKISH relations.
“AZERBAIJAN has attempted to play
the mediator between the two countries following tensions and disagreements
that emerged as a result of the Mavi Marmara incident,” he writes.
“Undoubtedly, this type of mediation can expand Baku’s role in MIDDLE EASTERN affairs
and strengthen Azerbaijan’s international standing.”
AFRICA: THE EMERGING CONTINENT
Another region in which the future
relationship between ISRAEL and TURKEY is going to be significant is AFRICA.
The extent of IRANIAN and Hezbollah involvement across approximately 40 states
here was assessed in the above-cited analysis by the IDC Herzliya’s Dr. Ely
Karmon. In this case, TURKEY has cleverly taken steps to expand its diplomatic
and commercial presence- thus making it a vital ally for the US and ISRAEL in
the region, both in terms of mediating local intra-religious disputes and
providing intelligence on IRANIAN moves. Although the foreign media has only
become aware of TURKEY’S tilt towards AFRICA in the last few months,
Balkanalysis.com devoted attention to it over two years ago in
this interview.
Background Information:
AFRICAN GEOPOLITICS
TURKEY’S TILT TOWARDS AFRICA
The present article cannot go into
detail concerning the complexities of the evolving ISRAELI-TURKISH relationship
and how both NORTH and SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA will affect it. However, it can
reasonably be assumed that TURKEY’S developed presence on the emerging
continent will place it in a strong position for its dealings with both ISRAEL
and the US. The leverage that TURKEY has due to its established economic
presence, and particularly in terms of its shared Islamic faith in African
countries with Muslim populations, may well be exerted in ways favorable to
Ankara, not only here but in other regions as well. However, indicators of such
diplomacy in action will probably not be immediately visible or relatable
except in a small number of individual cases.
Nevertheless, if ISRAEL does
eventually decide to limit its BALKAN activities, it may not be because of
simple budgetary reasons: rather, if it perceives TURKEY as being essential to
eliminating any IRANIAN threats emanating from AFRICA, Israel would probably choose
to become less prominent in TURKEY’S EUROPEAN backyard, if the latter demands
it.
Considering the politicians
involved, this is not as unlikely as occasional observers might think. Knowing
what factors motivate TURKISH decision-making politically, emotionally, and
strategically is necessary for deducing the likelihood of future ‘compromises’
to come in the BALKANS.
In the end, it will be up to the ISRAELI
leadership to game-plan for all of the possible outcomes and to convince their BALKAN
partners (as they recently attempted with the GREEK government) that they
really are ‘here to stay.’ With AMERICAN interest waning and the EUROPEAN UNION
mired in its own financial and other problems, it is a good moment for any
outside aspirants to gain influence in the BALKANS. The issue, for all
concerned, is to what extent their potential involvement will be guaranteed,
compared to other possible compromises with interested parties in other areas
or other spheres of interest.
The End
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