ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and
Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
Executive Summary:
- TURKEY and ISRAEL: Alliances new and old
- ISRAEL entering turkeys “turf”, the BALKANS, unnerves TURKISH political community and makes BOSNIAN leaders feel uneasy as well
- TURKISH, ISRAELI reconciliation purely because of defense industry related deals
- The tenor of the revived ISRAELI - TURKISH relationship and effects on the BALKAN alliances
- TURKEY by far the strongest country in the neighborhood, economically, militarily and politically
- Erdoğans trump card to make peace with the KURDS: Ocalan
- Competitive BALKAN
- ISRAEL’S private business activities have pivoted to the BALKANS, as a consequence of the 3 years rift with TURKEY
TURKEY AND ISRAEL: ALLIANCES NEW AND
OLD
One obvious aspect of the ISRAELI-TURKISH
rapprochement (and the US
involvement in brokering it) is the US desire to get both countries united
on SYRIA. The groundwork for the now famous phone call, diplomatic sources
indicate, was laid out a few weeks earlier during Secretary of State Kerry’s visit
to Ankara in February. However, Erdoğan is seeking to maximize what is
perceived as a new advantage, and has recently made guarded comments about the
speed and extent to which ties will be normalized, while also stating his
planed Gaza visit. If past experience is anything to go by, the TURKISH leader
will use his platform there to give a sort of victory declaration concerning
the Gaza flotilla, and further enhance his standing in the ‘Muslim street.’
Background Information:
THE TRUE REASON BEHIND TURKEYS WARMONGERING AGAINST ISRAEL
ISRAEL ENTERING TURKEYS “TURF”, THE BALKANS, UNNERVES
TURKISH POLITICAL COMMUNITY AND MAKES BOSNIAN LEADERS FEEL UNEASY AS WELL
Still, even before the Gaza Flotilla
incident, ISRAEL had already begun a strategic process of developing its
diplomatic, economic and cultural relationships in the BALKANS. Both before and
after May 2010 this approach has unnerved some in the TURKISH policy community,
and left BOSNIAN and other local Muslim leaders uneasy as well.
Background Information:
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BOSNIA: TURKEY SECOND
LARGEST INVESTOR
Thus, the key question that will
have to be asked going forward is (as discussed previously in the case of ALBANIA)
how the TURKISH-ISRAELI rapprochement will affect the relations of both powers
with specific BALKAN states and interests, especially when it comes to
bilateral military cooperation plans. ISRAEL is aware of this concern, as was
indicated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s
recent reassurances to GREECE that TURKISH rapprochement would not affect ISRAELI-GREEK
cooperation.
Background Information:
ISRAEL TO STATION
MILITARY JETS IN CYPRUS and
DIPLOMATIC DOORS NOT
ENTIRELY CLOSED BETWEEN ISRAEL AND TURKEY
TURKISH, ISRAELI RECONCILIATION PURELY BECAUSE OF DEFENSE
INDUSTRY RELATED DEALS
Until recently, almost all of the
feedback and discussion among ISRAELI experts and media over this issue had not
been raised, as their views were predicated on the assumption that ties with TURKEY
would not resume, and could not resume, as long as Erdoğan remained in power.
The fact that the impossible seems to have happened says more about US
influence and desire for clarity on SYRIA than about any innate ISRAELI-TURKISH
trust. It is also possible that blocked deliveries of ISRAELI-produced military
components and intelligence technology for TURKEY were starting to become
problematic for the latter, increasing internal pressure on TURKISH leaders to
act.
Whether or not it was really TURKEY
or ISRAEL who ‘needed it more,’ cooperation has been restored and the next step
for both sides is how to ‘sell’ the rapprochement before domestic supporters
and rivals. This is much more challenging for Erdoğan than for Netanyahu, as
the former’s aspirations are far greater and more diverse: to change the TURKISH
constitution in his favor, to make peace with the Kurds, to redirect an
ambitious foreign policy centering on several fronts, and to remain the most
influential politician in the Muslim world. This is why the TURKISH prime
minister’s public handling of the rapprochement is bound to be ‘predictably
unpredictable’- something that will irritate ISRAEL and the US, but that will
not be a surprise to longtime observers.
THE TENOR OF THE REVIVED
ISRAELI - TURKISH RELATIONSHIP AND EFFECTS ON THE BALKAN ALLIANCES
Despite any further controversial
comments to come from politicians, it does appear that bilateral relations will
eventually improve, even if these once and future partners will stay more wary
of each other in future, thus being a more cautious relationship.
Despite the fact that diplomatic and
economic relations between ISRAEL and TURKEY could be reestablished quite quickly,
the sensitive military and strategic cooperation is much more difficult to
achieve, in view of the deep changes in the ranks of the TURKISH military and
intelligence echelons and of mutual mistrust, something which will not
disappear overnight.
Analysts believe that the resumption
of ties will also benefit ISRAEL, as the new BALKAN alliances are limited. It
is not clear whether an alliance with CYPRUS and the BALKAN states can fully
substitute for ISRAEL’S former strategic military partnership with TURKEY, given
GREECE’ significant financial problems and ISRAEL’S own budgetary restraints,
it also remains doubtful whether either of the two countries can ‘afford’
prolonged military tensions presented by an [potentially] adversarial-inclined TURKEY.
TURKEY BY FAR THE STRONGEST COUNTRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD,
ECONOMICALLY, MILITARILY AND POLITICALLY
A similar analysis had been made
just over a year earlier by Dr. Josef Olmert, who raised the question of
whether a BALKAN alliance could replace the previous one with TURKEY: “It is
premature to pass a definitive judgment, but the odds are that the answer is
negative,” Olmert
wrote in the Huffington Post. “TURKEY is by far the strongest country in
this neighborhood, economically, militarily and politically. The closure of the
TURKISH market for the ISRAELI military industries is significant, and it is
inconceivable, that a bankrupt nation like GREECE, impoverished states like ALBANIA
or small nations like CYPRUS can make up the difference.” Interestingly, Olmert’s
view that Erdoğan would not ‘change course’ and restore relations with ISRAEL
was shared by many ISRAELI experts right up until Netanyahu’s apology was made.
Background Information:
WESTERN ARROGANCE AND IGNORANCE LED TO UNDERESTIMATE TURKEY
The resurrected TURKISH-ISRAELI relationship
will in most likelihood primarily focus on events in their immediate
neighborhood. This would mean that the current reduced cooperation with the
Balkans will reassume in the medium-term. Even if TURKEY and ISRAEL are able to
overcome their differences and jointly focus on SYRIA policy, it is doubtful
whether the two countries will be able to muster enough trust to take on issues
related to combating terrorism in the Balkans. At the present stage, both TURKEY
and ISRAEL are arguably focusing their attention towards the LEVANT as opposed
to the BALKANS.
Nevertheless ISRAEL may continue to
assist various BALKAN countries with the following areas of cooperation:
anti-terror training, homeland security technologies, airport and seaport
security, and assistance on transnational counter-narcotics operations.
ERDOĞANS TRUMP CARD TO MAKE PEACE WITH THE KURDS: OCALAN
It has been a long time since the
glory days of ISRAELI-TURKISH relations in the late 1990s, when cooperation was
so high that ISRAEL allegedly provided intelligence leading to the capture of
PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan (the degree and character of ISRAELI involvement,
denied wholesale by the government at the time, have been intensely debated,
with wildly differing tales told). The great irony here is that Ocalan, held in
a TURKISH island prison ever since, is now a sort of trump card vital for
Erdoğan in his outreach campaign to win a peace with the KURDS.
COMPETITIVE BALKAN
A certain trend in TURKISH media
visible since the Mavi Marmaris incident has revealed a concern, or attempts to
create concern that ISRAEL and TURKEY could in some way become competitors in
the BALKANS. However, according to Yossi Melman, “ISRAEL does not see TURKEY as
a competitor, certainly not in the BALKANS. ISRAEL wishes to restore its old
intelligence and military ties with TURKEY… the civil war in SYRIA provides a
common ground for ISRAELI and TURKISH interests to stabilize SYRIA.
Indeed, while TURKISH (and generally
pro-Muslim) supporters in the media have shown some concern about ISRAELI
expansion in the BALKANS, these fears are overblown. “Israel with its limited
size, capabilities and financial means is not a player in this game,” contends
Melman.
“ISRAEL via its intelligence and
security is concerned almost solely about its immediate national interests: IRAN’S
support of terrorist groups, the developments in SYRIA, terrorist groups
such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and to a lesser degree al Qaida (only in a direct
regard to ISRAEL, like the growing fear of Islamists in SYRIA),” he
continues. Still, “ISRAEL is taking part in exchanging information with
friendly services, thus occasionally if ISRAEL will come across information
which is valid to other nations it will provide it to the interested parties.”
ISRAEL’S PRIVATE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES HAVE PIVOTED TO THE
BALKANS, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE 3 YEARS RIFT WITH TURKEY
From the purely entrepreneurial side
of things, it is also interesting to note that while the three-year rift with TURKEY
had an effect; it did represent a helpful challenge in some ways. During the
long suspension of activities, businessmen from both countries had to find
alternate connecting points, which actually increased the value of countries
like MACEDONIA, ALBANIA and ROMANIA. So regardless of the diplomatic impasse,
says an informed local businessman, “TURKISH businessmen have considered the BALKANS
to be a good place to meet ISRAELI counterparts… despite politics, business
always finds a way.” There are currently plans for several joint private
ventures in the region, for example in the health care and high-tech sectors.
Read more related articles:
ISRAELI EXPORTS TO
TURKEY RISE 42% TO EQUAL EXPORTS TO GERMANY
SINCE TURKEY, OFFICIALLY
AT LEAST, CUT TIES WITH ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S ONLY OPTION FOR FUTURE OIL AND GAS
EXPORTS, GEO POLITICALLY SPEAKING, IS VIA “NEUTRAL” CYPRUS and
ISRAEL HAS BECOME A KEY STRATEGIC ALLY TO GREECE AND CYPRUS
TURKEY...... EMERGING
POWER
TURKEY REVIVES STRATEGIC COOPERATION WITH ISRAEL
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