WOULD A RAFSANJANI PRESIDENCY UNDERMINE A DEAL WITH IRAN?
Executive Summary:
- As president Rafsanjani also reopened Tehran’s stock market
- Rafsanjani seeking ties with the USA
- For geo- economical reasons the USA bluntly objects to reconcile with IRAN
- USA not interested in new openings towards IRAN
- Rafsanjani: a reformist?
- Turn the supreme leader into a ceremonial post
Former IRANIAN President Hashemi
Akbar Rafsanjani registered to run as a candidate in IRAN’S upcoming
presidential election. His candidacy must be approved by the country’s Guardian
Council, an election body chosen by IRAN’S Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and its
Chief Justice, who is himself appointed by the Supreme Leader.
Rafsanjani, often called “the shark”
owing to his clean shaven face and shrewd political maneuvering, served as IRAN’S
president following the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder Grand Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini. He also played a pivotal role in Khamenei’s appointment
as Supreme Leader, but the two men have been engaged in a power struggle ever
since.
AS PRESIDENT RAFSANJANI ALSO REOPENED TEHRAN’S STOCK MARKET
Since before the IRANIAN revolution
Rafsanjani was a close confidante of Imam Khomeini and served in a number of
posts during his lifetime, including Speaker of the Parliament and the
day-to-day commander-in-chief of the IRANIAN military near the end of the war
with IRAQ. In the latter position, he was reportedly one of the individuals
responsible for persuading Khomeini to agree to a ceasefire with Saddam Hussein
after eight bitter years of war.
Rafsanjani’s last presidency
(1989-1997) was characterized by a focus on rebuilding the economy following a
decade of revolution and war. As such, he filled his cabinet, “the cabinet of
reconstruction,” with a group of technocrats. According to Saïd
Amir Arjomand, an IRAN expert at Stony Brook University, Rafsanjani’s
second cabinet consisted of nine engineers and eight individuals with M.D.s and
PhDs.
As president Rafsanjani also
reopened Tehran’s stock market and put forth a legal framework for
privatization in his First Five-Year Development Plan (1990-1994), although the
latter faltered amid opposition from IRAN’S Parliament.
That said, the size of the
government swelled during his presidency with the number of public employees
(excluding armed forces) growing from 1.4 million people (2.8 percent of the
population) in 1987, to 2.3 million people (3.9 percent of the population in
1997). Ultimately, Rafsanjani’s economic agenda was largely unsuccessful as the
economy was plagued by high levels of inflation among myriad other issues.
RAFSANJANI SEEKING TIES WITH THE USA
As part of his drive to boost the
economy, Rafsanjani also tried to repair IRAN’S relations with its neighbors
and global powers including the UNITED STATES and EUROPE. Following George H.W.
Bush saying “good will
begets good will” during his inaugural address in 1989, Rafsanjani reached out
to the AMERICAN administration through the UN.
FOR GEO- ECONOMICAL REASONS THE USA BLUNTLY OBJECTS TO
RECONCILE WITH IRAN
When told that the U.S. would
recognize Saddam as the aggressor in the IRAQ War if IRAN would convince
Hezbollah to free AMERICAN hostages in LEBANON, Rafsanjani
put heavy pressure on the LEBANESE group to do just that. Owing to
Rafsanjani’s pressure and the extraordinary
effort of ITALIAN UN
diplomat Giandomenico Picco, the
last hostage was freed in 1991. By that time, however, the Bush
administration decided that it no longer wanted to form a new relationship
with IRAN.
Undeterred, Rafsanjani began
reaching out to the U.S. again after Bill Clinton’ was elected in 1992. This
culminated in Rafsanjani
awarding IRAN’S first post-revolutionary oil contract—worth US$1 billion— to
the American oil company Conoco, believing that a beneficial economic
relationship would pave the way to the resumption of political ties.
USA NOT INTERESTED IN NEW OPENINGS TOWARDS IRAN
Despite the State Department having
assured Conoco that the White House would approve a deal during its
negotiations with IRAN, Clinton issued two executive orders following the
announcement that effectively banned any U.S. companies from investing in IRAN’S
oil industry. As Clinton and later President Obama’s MIDDLE EAST aide, Dennis
Ross, explained: “We weren't interested in creating a new opening towards IRAN.
We were interested in containing what we saw as a threat.” The next year the
U.S. Congress made Clinton’s executive orders the law of the land with the
passage of the IRAN
LIBYA Sanctions Act of 1996.
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
The USA, economically, is
deeply committed to Sunni ARAB oil producing countries such as, SAUDI ARABIA,
QATAR and UNITED EMIRATES etc. US defense industry contracts with these
countries contribute largely to US economic standings. Thus it is almost
impossible for the US to mend relations with IRAN.
Although Rafsanjani has lost both a
Parliamentary campaign and the 2005 Presidential Election since his presidency
ended, he has remained a powerful figure in IRANIAN politics (the second most
powerful after Khamenei, most observers agreed until 2011). Besides being a
cleric and one of the wealthiest individuals in the country, he served for
years as both the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a body charged with
selecting and theoretically supervising the Supreme Leader and of the
Expediency Council, which adjudicates disputes between the Parliament and the
Guardian Council. His implicit support of the Green Movement following the 2009
elections created even more animosity between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, however,
and he was removed as Chairman of the Assembly of Experts in 2011. He remains
the chairman of the less powerful Expediency Council.
RAFSANJANI: A REFORMIST?
He is also one of current President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s most ardent rivals. Rafsanjani lost to Ahmadinejad in the
2005 election during which Ahmadinejad campaigned in no small part on
criticisms of Rafsanjani and other revolutionary elites who he charged had
become corrupt and used their positions in power to amass large personal
fortunes. Ahmadinejad has made it a point throughout his presidency to portray
himself as standing up to Rafsanjani and other regime stalwarts, and in the 2009 presidential election
claimed he wasn’t merely running against former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein
Mousavi, but rather against
a united front comprised Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, IRAN’S former
Reformist president.
TURN THE SUPREME LEADER INTO A CEREMONIAL POST
Khamenei is almost certain to try to
undermine Rafsanjani’s campaign, although it’s unlikely the Guardian Council
will declare him ineligible to run given Rafsanjani’s clout with IRAN’S clerics
and certain political leaders, including the Reformists. During the 2005
presidential campaign, one of Rafsanjani’s sons, Mehdi Hashemi, told
the Atlantic Council that if Rafsanjani won he would work to turn the
Supreme Leader into a ceremonial post like the “King of England.”
Around the same time, the elder Rafsanjani also suggested
he’d still be open to having a dialogue with the UNITED STATES if he was
reelected to IRAN’S presidency.
He appears to still have similar views regarding
negotiations with the U.S., writing
on his website last month, that only “domestic empathy and global
coexistence” could solve IRAN’S problems, and stating “if we could realize
these two facts, our problems will solve gradually.”
Although Rafsanjani is almost
certain to be
in favor of negotiating with the UNITED STATES, the chances of a U.S.-IRAN
deal could, paradoxically, be reduced if he is elected president next month.
Any deal with the U.S. would require
the approval of Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is unlikely to want a rival to
power like Rafsanjani such a diplomatic coup, especially given Rafsanjani’s
reported interest in weakening the post of Supreme Leader. In the past,
Khamenei has
been more receptive to a deal when he calculated the credit would go to
him, although he has acquiesced to IRANIAN presidents making offers at other
times as well.
By Zachary
Keck via The Diplomat.
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