ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and
Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
Executive Summary:
- Bulgaria: repeat attacks less likely
-
Macedonia: early stages
-
Albania: logistics possibilities
IRAN SEARCHING FOR WEAK LINKS IN THE EUROPEAN CHAIN: THE
BALKANS
ISRAELI agencies know that IRAN’S
MOIS and the al Qods force have established sleeper cells of agents and helpers
in various key countries in regions all over the world, from SOUTH AMERICA and CENTRAL
AMERICA to SOUTHEAST ASIA and East and West AFRICA, and they try to locate weak
links in the EUROPEAN chain… one such a weak link is the Balkans, they operated
there during the wars of the 1990′s (mainly, in BOSNIA and KOSOVO) and they are
trying to establish some sort of presence in Macedonia.
Background Information:
The same local conditions that make
the BALKANS an attractive target for Hezbollah and IRAN are also obliging ISRAELI
security services to increase their focus. The decision to expand the ISRAELI
diplomatic presence [in the Balkans] is a byproduct of budgetary reasons,
economic potential and yes, also the desire to challenge and stand up to IRAN
and Hezbollah terrorism.
IRAN’S operations are based on, and
are a result of, the following considerations: its capabilities, targets
(whether there are easy and soft to attack) and above all not to leave its
fingerprint, where they believe they would get away with murder- even if their
agents are caught red-handed.
This does not mean necessarily that
the Mossad will open ‘stations there. Embassies provide a good logistic cover
for intelligence operations and deploy so called ‘jumpers’- liaison intelligence officers and
officials who operate from HQ and ‘jump’ to countries were they are needed.
While ISRAEL enjoys “excellent
cooperation” with local BALKAN services, the latter in some cases lack
technological capacities and are weak in analysis, and certainly in monitoring
outside elements like IRAN- here enter the CIA and the Mossad to help them. The
Burgas inquiry is a good example of such an international cooperation,
combining local and international knowledge and understanding.
Intelligence cooperation between ISRAEL
and the BALKAN countries, whether Christian- or Muslim-majority, has increased
in the past three years. ISRAEL is working in cooperation with local security
services, and much of the relevant intelligence obtained by ISRAEL in the MIDDLE
EAST is then passed on to the BALKAN services… it is an ongoing cooperation for
them, not only with ISRAEL, but with US, UK and not to mention GERMANY services,
which have a strong and often underestimated presence and influence in the
region.
Bearing in mind the developing
trends of involvement in the BALKAN countries from both ISRAEL and its
adversaries, the previously-seen or potential threats in each, we can make the
following brief estimates for nine regional states. This list excludes TURKEY,
which would require a longer study, and CROATIA and MONTENEGRO, regarding which
interesting information exists but has still to be variefied.
BULGARIA: REPEAT ATTACKS LESS LIKELY
The BULGARIAN announcement blaming
Hezbollah for the Burgas bombing followed a lengthy investigation involving the
BULGARIAN intelligence and police, Mossad, Shin Bet, the CIA, MI6, Interpol and
others. Reportedly, ISRAELI intelligence had noticed a significant
increase in telephone traffic between known groups in LEBANON and unknown
parties in Burgas in the period before the attack- one of many clues indicating
a Hezbollah connection.
Some who have blamed the Burgas
bombing on Hezbollah depict it as ultimately an IRANIAN-sanctioned operation.
In the aftermath of the attack, an unnamed US
security official told the New York Times that it was “tit for tat”
retaliation for suspected ISRAELI assassinations of IRANIAN nuclear scientists.
However, other experts read it differently and restrict responsibility to the LEBANESE
organization. “Since Hezbollah’s ‘operational leader,’ Imad Mughniyah, was
assassinated in Damascus in 2008, the organization has attempted numerous times
to avenge his death by launching terrorist attacks against ISRAELI targets.
In July 2012 former BULGARIAN intelligence
chief Lt. Gen. Kircho Kirov
disclosed for the New York Times that his service had information in
2011 on planned attacks against ISRAELIS in BULGARIA, indicating that the
Burgas attack was not an unexpected aberration.
In fact, ISRAEL provided key
intelligence that foiled a suspected Hezbollah attack on ISRAELI ski tourists
going from TURKEY to BULGARIA in January 2012. The fact that this had occurred
irked some ISRAELI officials later, as they considered the January plot as a
clear warning that should have led to the disruption of the Burgas plot.
In the months after the Burgas
bombing, it
was reported that ISRAEL and BULGARIAN police were cooperating to protect ISRAELIS
and Jewish sites in BULGARIA ahead of the Jewish holidays. Kirov had in October
2010 spoken publicly regarding a threat from Asbat al-Ansar, a group reportedly
based in a Palestinian refugee camp in south LEBANON. The group’s threat had
been made in an
interview for BULGARIAN media, claiming that BULGARIA’S military
involvement in AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ made it a ‘legitimate’ target. According to
the 2010 report, Asbat al-Ansar was involved in recruiting mujahedin to fight
Western troops in those countries.
The failed plot in January 2012 and
the successful one in July of that year brought unprecedented international
attention and foreign intelligence cooperation to BULGARIA, making it now a
rather ‘hot’ place for terrorists. Further, BULGARIA’S foreign intelligence
service has long been known for its offensive capabilities, which can only have
been heightened during the past eight months of foreign cooperation. The only
hiccup in this regard has been a pattern of oblique comments between BULGARIAN
and ROMANIAN services, which can be read as a matter of pride.
In view of these facts it can be assessed
that even though BULGARIA remains porous and difficult to secure in general,
Hezbollah will be less likely to try and execute a repeat operation here than
it will be elsewhere in the region.
ALBANIA: LOGISTICS POSSIBILITIES
As NATO members, ALBANIA and CROATIA
are [in addition to BULGARIA] countries where the IRANIANS focus on. Multiple
informed sources, including ISRAELI diplomats and local officials indicated
that the
opening of an ISRAELI embassy in ALBANIA in August 2012 was partially
motivated by future security concerns.
While Sunni terrorist groups and
states, not IRAN, have historically been more active in ALBANIA, the ISRAELI-ALBANIAN
diplomatic alliance could provoke new interest from Tehran. ALBANIA’S shrewd
Prime Minister Sali Berisha has attempted to ingratiate himself among the ISRAELI
leadership by echoing their position on IRAN in public statements. Berisha
colorfully dubbed IRAN and its leader the “new Nazis” in November 2011, winning him
plaudits in the ISRAELI media. Perhaps not coincidentally, ALBANIAN leaders
in 2011 were actively promoting foreign investment opportunities, such as
energy that have attracted interest from foreign companies, including an ISRAELI
one.
As with BULGARIA and the
politicization of Hezbollah among EU allies, tricky diplomatic issues exist for
ALBANIA in its relations with ISRAEL and other allies. ALBANIA abstained from
the 2012 Palestinian UN vote, reportedly infuriating TURKISH Prime Minister
Erdoğan- a public embarrassment for the informal leader of the Muslim world,
making him appear unable
to exert sufficient leverage over EUROPE’S only OIC member state. A number
of complicated issues were involved here, including Palestine’s non-recognition
of KOSOVO, and ALBANIA’S relations with the US.
Berisha seems more investment-oriented
in his general approach, after all, he had his country join the OIC years ago
because of the Islamic states’ investment promises. Mr. Berisha is a
charismatic speaker, but not necessarily pro-ISRAELI out of ideals alone.”
Given the TURKISH-ISRAELI rapprochement, it will be interesting to see how ALBANIAN
policymakers adapt in order to remain relevant to both allies.
For his part, Dr. Ely Karmon places ALBANIA
after BOSNIA as a danger for IRANIAN infiltration and logistics in the region.
While acknowledging that “here, political attitudes to IRAN are far less
positive to IRANIANS than in BOSNIA,” he adds that “pro-IRANIAN elements can
support financial activities” on behalf of the Islamic Republic.
ALBANIA remains opaque. The legacy
of (Sunni) terrorist infiltration back in the 1990’s, subsequent construction
works in Tirana linked to al Qaeda supporters, and today’s vocal Islamist
groups indicate potentially fertile soil. Further, the local economy has been
affected by the economic downturn in GREECE and ITALY, from where ALBANIAN
diaspora workers have traditionally sent regular remittances. Distraction from
local economic issues seems to be coming increasingly in the form of
ultra-nationalism of an ethnic (not religious) inspiration, and ALBANIA remains
a strong US partner. However, the operative conditions for using the country as
a rear logistics or even a platform for an attack do exist and as such the situation
will be worth watching in the future.
Background Information:
MACEDONIA: EARLY STAGES
Another investment-hungry BALKAN country,
MACEDONIA, recently came onto the radar when it welcomed its first resident IRANIAN
ambassador, Saeed Sadegh Mohammadi, on 8 February 2013. There is currently an
interesting analytical disagreement between certain local and foreign experts
regarding whether this poses a security threat.
ISRAELI experts believe that this
new diplomatic presence “will be a platform for economic, cultural and even
religious activities,” fitting the pattern of IRANIAN activity in developing
countries.
MACEDONIAN officials downplay the
threat. “The IRANIAN government knows their diplomats will be monitored 24
hours a day- there is nothing they can do,” said one senior security official,
noting that it would be tactically difficult for a short-staffed diplomatic
facility in a small country to stay off the radar. Rather, the upgrading of IRAN’S
diplomatic ties is being considered as “merely symbolic” by MACEDONIAN
intelligence, and as a response to ISRAEL’S own strengthened relations with MACEDONIA;
this has included the long-awaited opening in March 2011 of the Holocaust Memorial
Center one of only four in the world.
It is a game for image. IRAN feels
it needs to respond wherever ISRAEL makes its own presence, so after the
[Holocaust Center] was opened, this was what IRAN decided to do, but does not
imply to be a major security threat for now.
However, other observers feel the
‘game’ could escalate in dangerous ways. This upgrading to ambassador status
was definitely initiated by the Iranian side. They came in and said, ‘we want
to expand our trade and cultural relations.
The US tried to get [the MACEDONIANS] to stop
or at least delay it by dragging out the process bureaucratically to keep IRAN from
starting to send diplomatic pouches, which they have used in the past to
transport explosives and equipment. Nevertheless, within a year IRAN would be
able to set up full operations.
At the same time, other deep
background information indicates that regardless of any potentially nefarious IRANIAN
intentions, the US is confident in the capabilities of the MACEDONIAN
counter-intelligence and police forces, which are per capita more robust than
in most other regional states. It is also the case for the last few years that ISRAEL
has supplied the MACEDONIAN side with high-tech electronics useful for
intelligence gathering activities.
Whether or not any IRANIAN-linked
security problems emerge in MACEDONIA, the game is set to continue, with ISRAEL
probably making the next move: diplomatic sources have hinted that ISRAEL’S
next full embassy in the region will be opened in Skopje, though the timetable
is not clear. Currently, the ISRAELI Embassy in CROATIA has jurisdiction over ISRAELI
interests in MACEDONIA.
Nevertheless, as was the case with
the Tirana embassy decision, what we are hearing from diplomatic sources is
that security concerns (as well as flourishing trade and cultural ties) partly
explain why an embassy will be built in Skopje. Indeed, recent minor vandalism
of the Holocaust Memorial Center by ALBANIAN nationalist/Sunni Islamist
protesters was an unsettling development. Since the Jewish structure was not
the focus of the protesters’ anger or activities, there should have been no
reason for attacking it. The incident served to remind that MACEDONIA continues
to hosts a small but problematic Islamist underground. In view of these facts,
it is also interesting to remember that when the provocative TURKISH
blockbuster Valley of the Wolves: Palestine came to theaters in MACEDONIA,
the ‘sponsors’ of local showings specified on posters were all Muslim and ALBANIAN
companies, including a security company with ties to local Wahhabi groups.
At present, we can conclude that
while IRAN may wish to establish a presence for possible trouble-making here,
it is still at a very basic level and a proactive approach from local
authorities will probably restrict this possibility. However, the very fact of
fresh IRANIAN interest and the continued displays of anti-Semitism from some
local Muslims will keep Israeli intelligence focused on the general situation.
Background Information:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/01/the-balkans-organized-crime-and.html
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