ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and
Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
Executive Summary:
- Organized crime in GREECE is a much larger phenomenon to reckon with but bears no direct threat to ISRAEL
- GREECE and CYPRUS: significant vulnerabilities
The
situation in maritime GREECE and especially in the divided island of CYPRUS to
its southeast has a different flavor to it than the BALKANS. In GREECE,
government rhetoric during the 1970’s and 1980’s fostered sympathies for the
Palestinian and other Muslim causes, creating international relations for
far-left and even student groups, some of which continue to this day. In CYPRUS
– until very recently one hub of the no-questions-asked global financial system
– the geographical proximity to the MIDDLE EAST has benefited terrorist groups
and intermediaries (among many others) for decades.
Indeed,
the usefulness of CYPRUS as a logistics and financial base made it somewhat of
a surprise that Hezbollah would be willing to risk this safe haven.
Background Information:
CYPRUS: EMERGING GEO-STRATEGIC KEY
PLAYER IN THE EASTER MEDITERRANEAN? At:
and
Nevertheless,
as the recent terrorism conviction there indicates, Hezbollah in 2012 had an
organized strategy involving surveillance of a hotel popular with Israelis, and
was willing to risk its position on the island. Perhaps, as
Haaretz defense correspondent Amir Oren suggested in February 2012,
in the context of a multiplicity of botched attacks in ASIA, the “most
worrying” aspect of those plots “was the evident drive to commit them even
though they hadn’t been properly prepared.” With increasing focus on LEBANON
and the SYRIA conflict, “the people available to carry out the attacks in INDIA,
GEORGIA and THAILAND were probably not the star graduates of [IRAN’S] sabotage
courses.” The testimony of the amateurish 24 year-old Hezbollah operative in
the Cyprus trial indicates that this might have been the case there as well.
As
with GREECE and BULGARIA, CYPRUS is a popular holiday destination that
benefited from the downturn in ISRAELI-TURKISH relations after May 2010. All
three countries have recorded a strong increase in ISRAELI tourists since then,
which unfortunately also makes them more tempting targets for Hezbollah.
(Comment by
Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: For ISRAELIS, CYPRUS has been a
popular tourist destination long before 2010, in fact as early as 1995 Israelis
flocked in considerable numbers to CYPRUS to spend short term holidays on the
Island )
“Security
specialists” who visited GREECE to assess tourist infrastructure security for a
private consulting company came to the conclusion that a large majority of sites,
be they the historical ones or the hotels, are not sufficiently secured,
including large and expensive resorts.
Even
were they to install a kind of police state, which they won’t, the varied
terrain and maritime nature of the country would make it almost impossible to
stop a serious [terrorist] outfit hell-bent on causing trouble, unless the
intel is very precise and timely. Adding the large and impoverished illegal
immigrant population, many of them Muslim, the vulnerability becomes evident
and could be exploited.
According
to analyst Ioannis Michaletos, GREEK security services are on constant alert
regarding possible attacks against ISRAELIS. “The authorities are keen to stop
any possible attacks on ISRAELI targets in GREECE, thus even when low-ranking ISRAELI
officials visit the country, security measures are beefed up,” he says. “One of
the reasons of course is Hezbollah, along with other Islamist groups that may
decide to strike.”
One
high-profile case was the GREEK arrests in February 2011 of two “LEBANESE of
Palestinian descent.” According to the IsraelDefense
website “their assignment was to infiltrate terrorists from another
organization by using fake passports.” Then, almost two months thereafter, the ISRAELI
Counter-Terrorism Bureau in the Prime Minister’s Office “published a chilling
warning to ISRAELIS traveling abroad to be especially vigilant in ‘MEDITERRANEAN
Basin States’ such as GREECE, CYPRUS, TURKEY, and MALTA.” Although an attack
did not occur, the ISRAELI security establishment would not have made such an
announcement unless there was ample reason for suspicion.
In
regards to Hezbollah specifically, Michaletos notes a sort of ‘disappearing
act’ trend that reflects on both heightened GREEK-ISRAELI security cooperation
and on the group’s more urgent needs elsewhere. “Their biggest exposure was
back in the 1980′s and 1990′s, but from 2001 to 2006 they significantly reduced
their presence, while they have spread across the globe… and have increasingly
redirected resources to SYRIA.”
ORGANIZED CRIME IN GREECE IS A MUCH LARGER PHENOMENON TO
RECKON WITH BUT BEARS NO DIRECT THREAT TO ISRAEL
Since
2010 and “the convergence of Athens and Tel Aviv,” the GREEK security services
have “started to pay close attention to the activities of all LEBANESE
individuals in the country, so they themselves are keeping a very low profile.”
This has led to some successes; for example, a cigarette-smuggling Hezbollah
cell active in the country was dismantled in 2009. Still, as Michaletos
reminds, “Hezbollah works through intermediaries and has local allies as well.
Back in January 2007, when the AMERICAN embassy suffered a rocket attack by the
leftist Revolutionary Struggle, the group’s proclamation of responsibility
ended with ‘support to Hezbollah,’ indicating again a nexus between alleged GREEK
leftist terrorists and the LEBANESE group.”
Further,
he adds, “Hezbollah has on various occasions sold weapons to EUROPE via GREEK smugglers
in CRETE, though there have been no arrests… and surplus ammunition from IRAQ
found its way to GREECE via LEBANESE channels after 2003.”
However,
organized crime in GREECE is a much larger phenomenon in which the major
players are BALKAN, NIGERIAN and PAKISTANI groups in areas including human and
narcotics trafficking, document forgery, counterfeiting and racketeering.
Such
groups are not direct threats to ISRAEL, which (along with the US) is much more
concerned with the influence and activities of IRAN in a country severely
affected by financial crisis. The
US recently sanctioned a GREEK businessmen allegedly involved in
sanctions-busting ship-to-ship transfers of IRANIAN oil. On 14 March, the GREEK
government announced a probe into a foreign company for its “involvement in an
alleged covert shipping network operated on behalf of the IRANIAN government.” ISRAELI
security experts have noted past cases of IRANIAN retributions for economic
setbacks such as contracts cancelled under Western pressure, so it would not be
without precedent for this to happen again here.
In
general, however, our estimate is that GREECE and CYPRUS are not at the top of
list of regional countries for IRANIAN-sanctioned or Hezbollah activity. Like BULGARIA,
CYPRUS has attracted greater international security attention due to its recent
Hezbollah case, so it is likely that any plots here would be deferred for now.
In GREECE, a much larger country with a plethora of vulnerable targets,
opportunity certainly exists but IRAN probably realizes that any attack on GREEK
soil would endanger (licit and illicit) oil export to the cash-strapped
country.
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