PROFOUND STRATEGIC RIVALRY
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and
Monitoring from the original article written by Gregory R. Copley via Oilprice
Executive Summary:
- Sunni versus Shia, Persians versus Arabs - cultural and strategic drive which has been apparent for more than three millennia
- Fear on the part of the Sunni states and communities, that IRAN can and will strategically dominate them
- Two ISRAELI airstrikes in SYRIA not linked to one another
- Vilification of IRAN by QATAR, TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA in order to gain geostrategic leverage over IRAN
- SYRIA and chemical weapons
- SYRIAN chemical weapons are designed for major urban warfare and not open street warfare
- The principal chemical weapon in the SYRIAN arsenal is VX
- ISRAELI air strikes: creating the impression that ISRAEL has now entered the fray in an attempt to ensure the overthrow of Assad
- ISRAEL did nothing to strike at SYRIAN military units conducting their campaign against the jihadist insurgents
- ISRAEL anxious that Assad not be overthrown because ISRAEL believes a Sunni-dominated outcome would be far worse for ISRAEL and the region
- A Sunni-dominated SYRIA would end, for the time being, any prospect of IRAN’S strategic reach to the MEDITERRANEAN
- IRAN mending fences with ISRAEL: repeating history?
- KURDISH as well as ISRAEL normalization deal with TURKEY, brokered by the USA, is illusory
- ISRAEL persuaded to foster ties with TURKEY because of strategic interests
- Until the beginning of 1979, ISRAEL fought hard to help sustain the unity and strength of IRAN
- Turkey’s transformation from secular and anti-Islamist bastion to Islamist and anti-ISRAELI activist state
- TURKEY openly opposes RUSSIAN strategic interests, including RUSSIAN commitments to SYRIA
- Forthcoming IRANIAN elections
- IRAN to take over SYRIA? - a most unlikely scenario
The Biblical conversion of Paul to Christianity “on the road
to Damascus” implied a turning point for the onetime antagonist of Christ. But
now the road to Damascus is an unmarked and uncertain path, full of treachery
and hidden motives ...
Events unfolding in the LEVANT —
particularly with regard to the externally-sponsored conflict underway within SYRIA
— during April and May 2013 were being played out like a flickering, imprecise
lantern show in the international media, distorting and mis-directing major
states’ policies toward the region.
SUNNI VERSUS SHIA, PERSIANS VERSUS ARABS - CULTURAL AND
STRATEGIC DRIVE WHICH HAS BEEN APPARENT FOR MORE THAN THREE MILLENNIA
The actual events on the ground were
on one planet; those same events portrayed in the international media and
political arenas were on an entirely different one. But that was not by
accident: there has been a strong element in reporting and policy statements of
attempting to portray the origins and the “inevitability” of outcomes along the
lines of wishful thinking.
FEAR ON THE PART OF THE SUNNI STATES AND COMMUNITIES, THAT
IRAN CAN AND WILL STRATEGICALLY DOMINATE THEM
What is being disguised by all of
this is an underlying series of conflicts. Again, there are several
fundamentals:
1. The deep geo-strategic
competition — indeed, profound strategic rivalry — between IRAN and TURKEY,
something which is now coming to a head;
2. The historical rivalry between RUSSIA
and TURKEY briefly contained in recent years, but now resurging;
3. The evolving (over the past
half-century in particular) fear on the part of the Sunni states and
communities, that IRAN can and will strategically dominate them, not merely on
the grounds of IRAN’S Shi’a religion, but on historical Persian (ie: non-Arab)
cultural and strategic drives (which have been apparent for more than three
millennia); and
4. The reality that there is no
external power presently in the LEVANT-MASHREQ-ARABIAN-PERSIAN GULF-RED SEA region
which has sufficient authority to ensure quiescence and compliance. This has
not been the case for about 500 years.
But on the current situation: To
begin with, there were reports during the first week of May 2013 that chemical
weapons had been used in the conflict in SYRIA, and this — very significantly —
followed “concerns” by the US about possible use by the SYRIAN Government of
chemical weapons, despite the fact that there had been no suggestion of such
use.
TWO ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES IN SYRIA NOT LINKED TO ONE ANOTHER
Then there were three significant
strikes by ISRAELI Air Force aircraft (probably F-16Is launching a series of
highly-accurate SPICE smart bombs and possibly other weapons from LEBANESE
airspace) against targets in SYRIA on May 5 and — against the Republican Guard
base the Mount Qassyoun military facility outside Damascus — on May 7,
2013.
TURKISH and US official agencies
indicated that the two events were linked, and made misleading — and knowingly
incorrect — statements on some aspects of what were, in fact, two very separate
and unrelated incidents.
Background Information:
ISRAEL’S
– SYRIA AIRSTRIKE AFTERMATH
IRANIAN general and two aides were the real target of alleged
ISRAELI airstrike in SYRIA. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/02/israels-syrian-airstrike-aftermath.html
SYRIA AND ISRAEL, AIRSTRIKE REPERCUSSION
Falling into Assad's trap?
At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/syria-and-israel-airstrike-repercussion.html
The statements by US and TURKISH
officials seemed to indicate that a “red line” had been crossed by the SYRIAN
Government of Pres. Bashar al-Assad, and that this opened the way for possible
US intervention.
VILIFICATION OF IRAN BY QATAR, TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA IN
ORDER TO GAIN GEO-STRATEGIC LEVERAGE OVER IRAN
All of this has been against a
backdrop of an international portrayal of the SYRIAN situation that:
(i) The Government of Pres. Bashar
al-Assad was about to collapse at any moment, a portrayal which had been defied
by events for some three years;
Background Information:
SYRIA: ASSAD WINNING THE WAR?
Assad pulls ahead in SYRIAN
war. Putin, Khamenei are co-victors. At http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/02/syria-assad-winning-war.html
SYRIA – ASSAD FIRM IN
SADDLE
IC (international community) tactical retrieve, in order to avoid another
LIBYAN style fiasco? At:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/01/syria-assad-firm-in-saddle.html
US INTELLIGENCE: ASSAD FIRMLY IN CHARGE
IN SYRIA. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syria.html
(ii) A spontaneous civil war was
underway in SYRIA, despite the reality that it was a war promoted by the US and
fueled by weapons, manpower, logistics, and propaganda, from QATAR, TURKEY,
and, to a degree, SAUDI ARABIA, with those players pursuing separate agendas
which all entailed the removal of a pro-Shi’a ‘Alawite SYRIAN Government
supported by, and supporting, the Shi’a Government of IRAN; and
Background Information:
SHIITE
PERSIANS VERSUS WAHHABI SAUDIS
The MIDDLE EAST is pervaded and increasingly infected by the
sectarian rivalry between the SHIITE PERSIANS and the WAHHABI SAUDIS, who are
now fighting proxy wars all over the region. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html
TURKEY AND
SYRIA: AN UNDECLARED STATE OF WAR
Sectarianism - “Sunni
crescent” At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
(iii) The vilification of IRAN for
its pursuit of nuclear weapons (which was true insofar as this was the stated
case by the WEST, but which case was supported by TURKEY, QATAR, and SAUDI
ARABIA out of their direct geo-strategic competition with IRAN, in the hope
that the US and ISRAEL would actually be prompted to fight IRAN on their behalf).
What has been attempted by the TURKISH,
US, UK, and some other governments and media is to obfuscate some of the
realities, and blur other issues so as to portray a situation which is not
realistic. That is not to plead a case for Pres. al-Assad or IRAN, but rather
to highlight that, if policy judgments are to be taken, that they be taken in
light of the facts seen in appropriate context.
SYRIA AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS
The SYRIAN Armed Forces have long
held stocks of chemical weapons. SYRIA is considered to have chemical agents
and munitions. It has a biological agents and munitions program and may already
possess biological agents and munitions. ISRAELI and US analysts report that SYRIA
has the capability to produce botulinum toxin, ricin toxin and anthrax at its
two biological warfare centers. Additionally, SYRIA is considered by UK and US
analysts as having the most sophisticated chemical weapons program in the ARAB
world. It has delivery systems suitable for use with chemical and biological
munitions. SYRIA signed the Geneva Protocol with reservations, and signed but
has not ratified the Biological Weapons Convention.
Background Information:
GIVEN
FACT: SYRIA DOES POSSESS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MISSILE HEADS
Contrary to us “weapons of mass destruction” hoax justifying the
invasion in IRAQ, SYRIA really possesses a lethal arsenal of chemical and
biological warheads. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html
SYRIAN MISSILES WILL PRE - EMPT ANY MILITARY INTERVENTION
SYRIA threatens to unleash missiles against any country preparing
for military intervention in SYRIA. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html
SYRIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE DESIGNED FOR MAJOR URBAN WARFARE
AND NOT OPEN STREET WARFARE
However, it is clear that the
chemical weapons and CW doctrine and units in the SYRIAN Armed Forces are
directly and absolutely copied from those of the (former) USSR. The claims of sarin gas being used in the
current SYRIAN fighting, however, show a substance and use doctrine totally
alien to SYRIAN Army practice.
Defector debriefs have indicated
that SYRIAN chemical weapons are
designed for major urban warfare in which entire communities are targeted for
destruction; they are not suitable, or designed, for open street warfare where SYRIAN
Government forces would be exposed. As well, Sarin is a substance — often
made up in a bathtub concoction — used more by al-Qaida and other terrorist
groups (such as the attack by members of Aum Shinrikyo on March 20, 1995,
against civilians in a Tokyo subway).
THE PRINCIPAL CHEMICAL WEAPON IN THE SYRIAN ARSENAL IS VX.
“Evidence” of SYRIAN Government alleged use of “chemical
weapons” came in the form of polluted soil samples provided by the Sunni
jihadis fighting the Government. Significantly, however, there was no actual
evidence of chemical weapons residual in these samples, nor in the corpses
delivered as “proof” of a Government CW attack.
Despite this, significance, the US
Government issued statements implying the credibility of the CW use reports by
the SYRIAN Government, and noting that this was pushing the US closer to a
situation whereby a “red line” had been crossed by the Assad Government,
requiring US response. Not surprisingly, this was further promoted by the TURKISH
Government.
However, by escalating a climate
which, de facto, promoted a belief that the SYRIAN Government was using, or
would use, chemical weapons, the US White House has begun to build acceptance
for an escalation of US aid to the Sunni rebel groups to include, initially at
least, weapons and munitions. That was strongly suggested by US Defense Dept.
officials at the beginning of May 2013.
ISRAELI AIR STRIKES: CREATING THE IMPRESSION THAT ISRAEL HAS
NOW ENTERED THE FRAY IN AN ATTEMPT TO ENSURE THE OVERTHROW OF ASSAD
There is clearly a process which was
being created to generate or sustain the sense of “inevitability” that the tide
was (still) turning against Assad, and the threat of US intervention remained
high. As well, the confluence of events with the allegations of chemical
weapons use and the ISRAELI air strikes, the impression was being given that ISRAEL
had now entered the fray in an attempt to ensure the overthrow of Assad.
[However, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on SYRIA
emphasized in a statement May 6, 2013, that it had reached no conclusions about
the possible use of chemical weapons in SYRIA’S civil war, but indicated that
the “rebels” appeared to have been the ones using the Sarin.]
But it was clear that ISRAEL’S actions
had nothing to do with the media froth — stirred by politicians — about chemical
weapons. Neither was there any indication that Israel wished to see the end of
the Assad Government.
Comment by geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
COULD
IT BE THAT KEEPING ASSAD IN POWER IS MAYBE THE EXACT INTENTION OF ISRAEL?
In June 2012 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring
wrote: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS……….This is almost certainly because the
ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it
is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective
balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’…..
Read entire article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-feasts-and-rites-of-confusion.html
THE ALAWITES AND ISRAEL
IT IS GENERALLY BELIEVED THAT AMONG THE ARAB REGIMES SYRIA IS THE MOST IMPLACABLE ENEMY OF ISRAEL. Read entire article at:
THE ALAWITES AND ISRAEL
IT IS GENERALLY BELIEVED THAT AMONG THE ARAB REGIMES SYRIA IS THE MOST IMPLACABLE ENEMY OF ISRAEL. Read entire article at:
Read related topics under:
ISRAEL COPING WITH A FULL SCALE CIVIL WAR IN
SYRIA at
REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA, FULL SCORE FOR ISRAEL?
and
ISRAEL DID NOTHING TO STRIKE AT SYRIAN MILITARY UNITS
CONDUCTING THEIR CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE JIHADIST INSURGENTS
The ISRAELI strikes in early May
2013 against SYRIAN targets were all very carefully delineated to ensure a
message as well as a military outcome. Firstly, ISRAEL did nothing to strike at
SYRIAN military units conducting their campaign against the jihadist
insurgents. It targeted units conveying IRANIAN weapons being routed to Hezbollah
units for use against ISRAEL, particularly Fattah 110 missiles.
The strikes can be seen as parallels
to the ISRAELI Air Force strikes in late October 2012 against the Yarmouk
factory and the SUDAN Technical Center, near Khartoum, SUDAN because these
facilities were providing similar IRANIAN-developed weapons to Hezbollah and
Gaza-based HAMAS.
ISRAEL ANXIOUS THAT ASSAD NOT BE OVERTHROWN BECAUSE ISRAEL
BELIEVES A SUNNI-DOMINATED OUTCOME WOULD BE FAR WORSE FOR ISRAEL AND THE
REGION.
The US Associated Press noted on May
5, 2013: “ISRAEL says the Iron Dome [anti-missile defense system] shot down
hundreds of incoming short-range rockets during eight days of fighting
against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip last November [2012]. Hezbollah
fired some 4,000 rockets into ISRAEL during the 2006 war, and ISRAEL believes
the group now possesses tens of thousands of rockets and missiles.” The logic
of the May 2013 strikes was, for ISRAEL, clear: IRAN had attempted to test how
far ISRAEL’S restraint would go, knowing that, for the time being, ISRAEL was
anxious that Pres. Assad not be overthrown, largely because the Government of ISRAEL
believed a Sunni-dominated outcome would be far worse for ISRAEL and the
region.
Background Information: US INTELLIGENCE: ASSAD FIRMLY IN CHARGE IN SYRIA.
At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syria.html
A SUNNI-DOMINATED SYRIA WOULD END, FOR THE TIME BEING, ANY
PROSPECT OF IRAN’S STRATEGIC REACH TO THE MEDITERRANEAN
As well, from an IRANIAN standpoint,
Tehran was conscious of the reality that it might have to move strenuously to
safeguard its investment in SYRIA. A Sunni-dominated SYRIA would end, for the
time being, any prospect of IRAN’S strategic reach to the Mediterranean.
IRAN MENDING FENCES WITH ISRAEL: REPEATING HISTORY?
IRAN’S only other option would be to
mend fences with ISRAEL, and start to restore the millennia-old IRAN-ISRAEL partnership, as the late Shah of IRAN had
done.
Background Information:
IRAN:
AN OLD FRIEND OF THE JEWS? At: http://www.communitym.com/article.asp?article_id=101438
IRAN softens tune on ISRAEL. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iran-and-israel-improvement-in.html
TURKISH - IRANIAN EQUATION
In the meantime, IRAN has made it
clear to the TURKISH Government that Tehran would absolutely not allow SYRIA to
go without a fight which could — and almost certainly would — ultimately entail
“strategic actions” against TURKEY on a number of fronts.
TURKISH Prime Minister Reçep Tayyip
Erdogan is already confronted by several major challenges:
(a) the fact that the TURKISH Armed
Forces are largely impotent, because he decapitated their leadership out of
fear of a new military coup d’etat to restore the General Staff’s supremacy in
government;
(b) the continuing demands for KURDISH
rights; and — among many other challenges — an economy which is delicate and dependent
on RUSSIAN goodwill to a far greater degree than he would readily wish to
acknowledge.
Prime Minister Erdogan attempted to
mitigate the growing KURDISH situation by striking what he felt was a deal with
the imprisoned leader of the PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: the KURDISH
Workers’ Party), Abdullah Ocalan, who still languishes in a TURKISH prison
under sentence of death. On March 20, 2013 (KURDISH New Year), he announced an
“historic call” to end the fighting between the PKK and the TURKISH Government.
The ceasefire would require all the PKK’s armed fighters inside the country to
leave, a process which began in early May 2013.
KURDISH AS WELL AS ISRAEL NORMALIZATION DEAL WITH TURKEY,
BROKERED BY THE USA, IS ILLUSORY
This — like the triumphal “deal” to
normalize Turkish-Israeli relations brokered by US Pres. Barack Obama on March
22, 2013 — was, however, illusory. PKK
sources, even as they began moving to safe- havens in IRAQ in the first week of
May 2013, acknowledged that Ocalan had made his “call” as one more step to
stave off the hangman, and his followers understood that. But the fight was
not, in reality, paused or shelved, and IRAN and SYRIA have, in fact, stepped
up their active support for the PKK and other KURDISH movements fighting the TURKISH
Government, mostly from safe-havens in IRAQ.
IRAN has the capacity to mobilize
the PKK and other KURDISH movements against TURKEY, and this may be a challenge
which the Erdogan Government cannot ultimately meet. In all of this, as well,
the issue of the ARMENIAN community’s potential role in all of this cannot be
under-estimated, and ARMENIA — with a strong lobby in the US — is an ally of IRAN,
GREECE, and TURKEY. Moreover, the GREEK and CYPRIOT governments have a stake in
seeing an initiative to break up TURKEY succeed, given the threats which TURKEY
has continued to make against GREEK ÆGEAN territorial waters and islands, and
to continue its military occupation of more than one third of CYPRUS (with
attendant and ongoing blackmail of CYPRUS to delay or confound the development
of offshore CYPRIOT natural gas reserves).
Background Information:
For now, and despite growing
closeness between Mr Erdogan and US Pres. Obama, TURKEY’S chances of
joining the EU are slipping further away; indeed, the EU itself is fighting for
cohesion.
Background Information:
TURKEY'S INTEREST IN EU MEMBERSHIP PLUNGES
The question is does TURKEY need EU membership???……. most likely not. At: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/11/turkeys-interest-in-eu-membership.html
ISRAEL PERSUADED TO FOSTER TIES WITH TURKEY BECAUSE OF STRATEGIC INTERESTS
Several critical strategic questions
remain for Mr Erdogan, such as whether he can, through the grudging
re-establishment of the restoration of “normal” diplomatic relations with
Jerusalem, stave off ISRAEL’S active participation in covert acts hostile to TURKEY’S
survival.
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF 1979, ISRAEL FOUGHT HARD TO HELP
SUSTAIN THE UNITY AND STRENGTH OF IRAN
At present, ISRAEL has been
persuaded that the preservation of TURKEY would be in ISRAEL’S strategic
interests, but it is worth remembering that until the beginning of 1979, ISRAEL
fought hard to help sustain the unity and strength of IRAN.
That changed progressively over the
subsequent decades to the point where the Binyamin Netanyahu Government of ISRAEL
has come to actively participate in steps designed to weaken and even dismember
IRAN.
(Officially this seems the case, unofficially
things appear somewhat different, for one should not forget that ISRAEL fosters
unofficial ties with a number of ARAB states as well, so why not with the PERSIANS?
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring)
TURKEY’S TRANSFORMATION FROM SECULAR AND ANTI - ISLAMIST
BASTION TO ISLAMIST AND ANTI - ISRAELI ACTIVIST STATE may not have been hallmarked by a visible “revolution”, but
its change is as profound as was the 1979 change in IRAN.
Washington may not have noticed it (although the White House
has embraced it), but ISRAEL can hardly much longer ignore it.
TURKEY OPENLY OPPOSES RUSSIAN STRATEGIC INTERESTS, INCLUDING
RUSSIAN COMMITMENTS TO SYRIA
In all of this, of course, RUSSIA
has a profound influence. When Turkey found itself strategically isolated at
the end of 2008 and early 2009, it was forced to kow-tow to Moscow, which had
the ability to cut off the flow of much of the transit oil and gas to EUROPE,
via TURKEY, from the Caspian. This would have devastated the TURKISH economy,
so Ankara made noises of friendship and cooperation with Moscow. Not that there
was any improvement in the historical animosity between the two, but the mutual
containment situation prevailed briefly. Subsequently, however, Ankara has
begun openly opposing RUSSIAN strategic interests, including RUSSIAN
commitments to SYRIA. Moscow was not letting this confrontation pass
unremarked.
Background Information:
The US Obama Administration’s call
for RUSSIAN help in removing Assad, therefore, should be seen as asking Moscow
to act against its own interests, and yet Washington phrases the request as
though RUSSIAN Pres. Vladimir Putin was somehow unreasonably supporting a
dictator who was bound to fail. US Secretary of State John Kerry called on
Pres. Putin in Moscow on May 7, 2013 (while also meeting RUSSIAN Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov) in the knowledge that both sides did not wish to appear
at odds over the SYRIA issue. But it should be seen as extremely unlikely that RUSSIA
could be persuaded to act against its own vital strategic interests merely
because Obama and Kerry want to support a situation which would ultimately be
inimical to RUSSIAN interests in the area.
FORTHCOMING IRANIAN ELECTIONS
From another perspective, the
actions of IRAN in the area need also to be seen through the prism of the
forthcoming (June 14, 2013) IRANIAN Presidential elections, in which outgoing
Pres. Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad was hoping to see a continuation of his policies
through the election of his key protégé, Esfandiar Rahim Masha’i. This seems
unlikely.
Read upcoming article: IRANIAN ELECTIONS:
WOULD A RAFSANJANI PRESIDENCY UNDERMINE A DEAL WITH
IRAN? At:
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iranian-elections.html
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/05/iranian-elections.html
Finding a way in which Ahmadi-Nejad
can be removed from office [by the Supreme Leader] without further damaging the
image of clerical governance, and finding a suitable replacement who has the
authority of a Bonapartist, yet still subservient to the ‘Revolution.
“One clear candidate appeals to many
clerics: Tehran Mayor Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf. Mayor Qalibaf, who has strong
battlefield leadership credentials from his service in the IRANIAN
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pasdaran), is a strong opponent of Ahmadi-Nejad,
and yet is seen as strongly nationalistic and supportive of the clerical system
of government. Known sources indicated that there was movement toward replacing
Ahmadi-Nejad with either an active Pasdaran leader, or a strong civilian such
as Qalibaf.
IRAN TO TAKE OVER SYRIA? - A MOST UNLIKELY SCENARIO
That remains the outlook, and the
influence of the Pasdaran should not be under-estimated, either in the election
of a new leader, or in the strategic actions taken with regard to SYRIA.
ISRAELI writer Brig.-Gen. (rtd.) Dr Shimon Shapira, writing in Jerusalem Issue
Brief on May 5, 2013, even went so far as to say that IRAN planned to take over
SYRIA, citing a mid-April 2013 visit by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to
Tehran for meetings with Supreme Leader ‘Ali Khamene’i and Gen. Qasem
Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Pasdaran. Suleiman reportedly
prepared an operational plan named after him and “based upon the establishment
of a 150,000-man force in SYRIA, the majority of whom will come from IRAN, IRAQ,
and a smaller number from Hezbollah and the GULF states”.
SHORT-TERM INTERESTS — SUCH AS ELECTIONS — VERSUS LONG- TERM
INTERESTS.
Shapira went on to note: “Mehdi
Taaib, who heads Khamene’i’s think tank ... recently stated that ‘SYRIA is the
35th district of IRAN and it has greater strategic importance for IRAN than
Khuzestan [an ARAB- populated district inside IRAN]’. Significantly, Taaib was
drawing a comparison between SYRIA and a district that is under full IRANIAN
sovereignty.”
In all of this, in IRAN, ISRAEL, TURKEY,
the US, and elsewhere, we see the play of short-term interests — such as
elections — versus long- term interests.
Caught in the middle of all this, in
many respects, is CYPRUS and the development of the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN gas
fields, held hostage by Ankara, which has promised to make investment and
exploitation in and of the offshore CYPRIOT gas fields — and therefore the
provision of an alternative energy supply for WESTERN EUROPE, independent of TURKISH
transit fees — difficult.
TURKEY IS HOLDING OUT, LOGICALLY, FOR A STAKE IN THE ENERGY
RESOURCES.
Background Information:
EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE
Mediterranean Flashpoint? At:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/normal-0-false-false-false-en-us-x-none_14.html
and
In all of these developments, too, we
see huge gambles being taken as Washington, Ankara, Doha, and Tehran attempt to
win “throw-of-the-dice” gains before their situations change irreversibly.
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