ISRAEL, IRAN and the BALKANS Part 5

ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS. SERBIA AND KOSOVO

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso

SERBIA AND KOSOVO: A TRULY COMPLICATED SITUATION 

The most complex diplomatic situation in the BALKANS today remains that of SERBIA and KOSOVO. This has unsurprisingly led to a knotty situation for the international relations of ISRAEL, IRAN and these BALKAN states.

While archrivals ISRAEL and IRAN can’t seem to agree on anything, they have so far both agreed on not recognizing KOSOVO as an independent state. After Prishtina’s February 2008 unilateral declaration of independence, the ISRAELI government was concerned that the Palestinians could use this as a precedent, and chose not to recognize KOSOVO, though they did realize the importance of fostering good relations. Humorously enough, in January 2009 the task of nation-branding KOSOVO to win more international recognitions was awarded to Saatchi & Saatchi, the Israeli subsidiary of France’s Publicis.

For their part, the IRANIANS perceived the KOSOVO independence process as a US-backed project, which it certainly was, and as such remain happy to oppose it. Thus Tehran’s own sectarian archrival, SAUDI ARABIA, is along with QATAR and TURKEY in a much stronger position among Muslim countries when it comes to KOSOVO. IRAN’S support for SERBIA was also a legacy from the days of YUGOSLAV leadership in the non-aligned movement under Tito. In fact, Tito cut off diplomatic relations with ISRAEL when the Six-Day War of 1967 occurred; they would only be renewed on January 31, 1992, when Milosevic was in charge in Belgrade and the other republics were breaking away in the various wars. ISRAEL understood then that its IRANIAN rivals were supporting the BOSNIAN Muslims against the SERBS.

Since both ISRAEL and IRAN do not recognize KOSOVO, it has been difficult for either to advance institutional relationships in key areas, though both nations are believed to have key ‘agents of influence’ among the local business and political elite. The other major power interested in SERBIA is RUSSIA (that sometimes ally of both IRAN and ISRAEL), which of course brings the US and NATO states into the game as well.

Considering that both SERBIAN and KOSOVAR authorities claim to want EU membership, all of these competing interests makes the situation very complex. SERBIA has somehow managed to fairly successfully balance its relations with all parties, inviting IRANIAN investment and even allowing IRAN Air flights to refuel in Belgrade between March and June 2011, until alleged US pressure forced its stop. At the same time, Belgrade and ISRAEL are trying to develop deeper diplomatic and economic relations, and the number of SERBIAN tourists visiting ISRAEL continues to rise year-on-year. The sheer complexity of SERBIA’S balancing of interests makes for a situation that is both very interesting and very difficult to read.

It can be reasonably assume that IRAN will not risk its entrenched interests in SERBIA by trying to conduct any operations on its territory. And while reliable intelligence sources revealed the presence of at least 120 (Sunni) Muslims from KOSOVO, SERBIA and MONTENEGRO among SYRIA’S rebel ranks, these fighters are opposing the IRANIAN-supported SYRIAN government. So, even if they are deeply anti-ISRAELI, they are in some way on the ‘ISRAELI side’ in this very complex and constantly-shifting conflict. The real question for the future is how ISRAELI and IRANIAN approaches to SERBIA and KOSOVO will shift in the long term, after the latter two come to some sort of eventual compromise.