EGYPT: THE LYNCHPIN OF THE MIDDLE EAST (Part 2)

EAST AND WEST EMPIRE SATURATION – WHERE AND WHEN WILL THEY COLLIDE?

The operational modalities of the UNITED STATES as the ’police of the world’ are viewed by many with envy and with disgust. When the USA is advance its economic interests its massive military power projects far ahead of any diplomatic efforts. That is a luxury that others do not have. The US has benefited from this arrangement immensely and rival nations are attempting to reshape this model adding their own cultural sensibilities. As the old adage goes, ’talk softly but carry a big stick’.

In his December 1823 message to Congress, US president James Monroe had launched the doctrine that would bear his name. As the SPANISH empire collapsed, enticing the BRITISH to fill the void, he defied EUROPEAN intervention in the affairs of the AMERICAS. It would have been of benefit to all had the US not, under the guise of fighting against external colonialism, focused its foreign policy on constituting a continental block that the US itself hoped to dominate.

Without worrying about credible justification, the US intervened militarily in PUERTO RICO (1824), MEXICO (1845 and 1847), NICARAGUA (1857 and 1860) and in the province of PANAMA (1860). Alarmed, the governments of CHILE, BOLIVIA, ECUADOR, NEW GRENADA (COLOMBIA) and PERU met in Lima in 1847 to examine this interventionism. The outbreak of war against MEXICO in 1848 justified their concern: from Texas to California, the US annexed half MEXICO’S territory. After its own Civil War, the US became aware of its huge power. From 1880, having conquered the West, it turned its attention to the South. During General Grant’s presidency (1869-77), the theory of “manifest destiny” made clear US ambitions: to control the continent. The US spoke about the “defence of democracy” softly, and sent in the marines by way of a big stick. Besides the occasional military intervention, there were invasions followed by establishment of protectorates. --Le Monde

Many nations have been quietly sitting on the sidelines watching the UNITED STATES operating with righteous impunity. Beasts from the east are looking to not only stand up to AMERICA but slowly chip away at their turf. CHINA’S is following bits of the US playbook when it comes to their mixed-market economy, while rapidly building up their military force. CHINA is leveraging their military to intimidate any who would interfere with their economic aspirations while appearing meek and adamantly denying all accusations.

SOFT POWER VERSUS HARD POWER

Evidence compiled by The Sunday Age reveals that, in its relations with AUSTRALIA, CHINA uses its power to co-opt support and silence critics. Sometimes, it involves intimidation and threats. In international relations, there is soft power and there is hard power. Exercising it is how governments get their way. CHINA’S communist rulers are no different. They legitimately use soft power to win foreign friends and gain international influence. The tools of soft power are culture, education, public diplomacy, business links and people-to-people contacts. Then there’s hard power — overt pressure or threats. In CHINA’S case, its hard power carries more punch than most and, in relations with AUSTRALIA, it’s backed by lots of money. –The Age

The focus on peace, development, and cooperation was welcomed and continues as the main emphasis in CHINESE foreign policy; but it has been accompanied in recent years by repeated use of coercion and intimidation well beyond internationally accepted norms in support of CHINESE broad maritime claims in the SOUTH CHINA Sea and the EAST CHINA Sea. In short, the principles and praxis of CHINESE foreign and security policy have evolved and continue to change, reflecting a mix of domestic priorities, challenges and considerations, as well as treatment and acceptance by neighbors and others abroad. –CSIS

CHINA has been building a massive economic engine due to the needs of its gargantuan population. There have been subtle hints of a coming insurrection within CHINA due to pollution, corruption, land grabbing, limited water supply, and inflation of food prices. Over the last few years there have been major riots that have instilled fear within the leadership of CHINA. CHINA is digging its heels into the SOUTH CHINA SEA and the INDIAN OCEAN to apply its new economic and military grand strategy, building a new “Silk Road” between sea lines to ensure proper transport of its imports and military infrastructure. CHINA is weary of both RUSSIA and INDIA and do not want to find being cut off from the rest of the world. A military or financial blockade in the straits by its enemies or past allies would be debilitating.

ASIA-PACIFIC STRATEGIC RETRENCHMENT: POLITICAL AND MILITARY OBJECTIVES 

The USA, JAPAN and CHINA are projecting power and expanding maritime and mainland strategic defenses within the ASIA-PACIFIC landscape for control of trade sea routes, strategic raw materials – hydrocarbons hubs and security of geographic provinces of strategic interest. The ASIA-PACIFIC geopolitical scenario will be no easy task since ASIAN nations are interplaying AMERICANS and CHINESE, with the U.S. military providing security and CHINA providing economic fringe benefits.

“As you look at the Asia Pacific, it’s about competition for resources, limited resources,“ It’s about making sure that everyone is able to sustain their own sovereignty and their interests” – US Chief of Army Staff General Raymond T Odierno- American Enterprise Institute

Pentagon and civilian leaders are rapidly increasing U.S. Army, Marines and U.S. Navy presence in CHINA’S backyard. CHINA’S naval fleet, the largest in ASIA, which boasts 62 submarines, 13 destroyers and 65 frigates of active ships in the region. The U.S. military is increasing military footprints, boots on the ground with U.S. Marines, Joint Special Operations Command, military equipment depots and strategic intelligence and aerospace footprint with locales in AUSTRALIA, VIETNAM , CAMBODIA and the PHILIPPINES. Not only is the vast deployment of U.S. military armed forces concentrated toward CHINA’S expansion, these forces will provide security for vested interests in the region – JAPANESE Ichthys Gas , Royal Dutch Shell , ExxonMobil, Forum Energy and trillions of dollars worth of oil found in AUSTRALIAN outback. Coincidence?

The PHILIPPINES and U.S. military are considering the development of a territorial defense force orce capable of handling the PHILIPPINES’ strategic interest in the SOUTH CHINA SEA, a high-ranking U.S. military – ABS 

The proposed airfields and naval bases in the PHILIPPINES, a close U.S. ally, coincides with a resurgence of U.S. warships, planes and personnel in the region as Washington turns its attention to a newly assertive China – Reuters

CHINA’S rising military power in the region is expanding well beyond it’s borders through stealth wars and operations , key transport and delivery of strategic resources and continued intrusion on nations economic exclusive zones. CHINA’S activities in the region are necessary to nourish it’s regional appetite for power, influence and resources, diplomacy necessary to sustain the CHINESE economic engine. JAPANS considerable dependence on imported energy resources (90%) transiting routes of Malacca – South and East CHINA Sea is a high risk of engagement of military forces and energy firms with CHINA over territorial disputes especially over oil and gas in the heavily disputed Okinawa and Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands .

CHINESE state-run oil companies hope to develop seven new gas fields in the East CHINA Sea, possibly siphoning gas from the seabed beneath waters claimed by Japan, a move that could further inflame tensions with Tokyo over the disputed area- Gulf Times

However, whichever side you fall on, the fact remains that CNOOC is CHINA’S largest offshore exploration and production company which takes its mandate from Beijing to secure as much oil and gas as possible, seriously – Energy Tribune

U.S. and Philippines strategic architecture is operation acquisition prevention, AirSea Battle vs anti-access/anti-denial capabilities (A2/AD), military’s offshore control concept to ensure the flow of strategic assets to U.S. allies while blockading CHINESE access, interdict import of strategic raw materials at vital sea gates and choke points and inhibit CHINESE corporate offshore oil and natural gas energy and naval activities in the exclusive economic zones, mainly CHINA’S 9-dash line territorial claim over PANATAG, Parcel and Spratly Islands of the South CHINA Sea.

The PHILIPPINES has deployed a fresh batch of marines and supplies to a shoal in the disputed South CHINA Sea, where a CHINESE warship and surveillance vessels appeared last month and triggered a new standoff in the strategic waters, the PHILIPPINE defense secretary said on June 19 – Asahi.

Military’s Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) is shifting its operations from internal security to territorial defense in 2014, focusing on the Luzon coastlines amid disputes over marine boundaries in Southeast Asia, the new Nolcom chief – Inquirer

A decades-old territorial squabble over the South CHINA Sea is entering a new and more contentious chapter, as claimant nations search deeper into disputed waters for energy supplies while building up their navies and military alliances with other nations, particularly with the UNITED STATES – Reuters

The PHILIPPINES plans to relocate major air force and navy camps to a former US naval base north of Manila to gain faster access to waters being contested by CHINA in the South CHINA Sea- South China Morning Post

Strategic dialogue between the U.S., CHINA and JAPAN over economic exclusive zones, oil and gas regions and military encounters over territorial disputes could easily ignite a South CHINA Sea Flashpoint . With hardly any noise or accusations from pundits, the U.S. massive military and diplomatic buildup in the ASIAN Block is a counter-move toward CHINA’S renminbi bloc and forestall the creation of multinational ASIAN block adopting the Yuan as a primary currency and the direct exchange of oil and gas for Yuans.

Beijing’s possible move to back the yuan with gold would not be meant as a strategic measure to strengthen the national currency and increase its attractiveness as an investment medium. Rather, it would be a flaunt aimed at demonstrating to the world (and to the USA in particular) that CHINA is capable of taking the risks associated with a departure from the dollar standard – RBTH

CHINA may soon start direct trading between the yuan and the AUSTRALIAN dollar, bypassing the U.S. dollar when exchanging the units, to take advantage of growing financial and trading ties between two nations – WSJ

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A FUTURE SMALL SCALE WAR OVER SHRINKING STRATEGIC RESOURCES? 

When considering CHINAS A2-AD strategy, one popular theory is that CHINA would go all in launching massive saturation missile strikes on AMERICA and JAPANESE bases to gain advantage and attain victory

The US-PH alliance is erecting an offensive/defensive perimeter in the Asia-Pacific to secure jump-off points for pre-emptive strike capabilities. The Pentagon is increasing the MEU to 2500 in Darwin, increasing rotational Naval and JSOC operations in the PHILIPPINES , shifting Marines from JAPAN to GUAM which all could find themselves transiting the region in littoral combat ships as part of the Single Naval Strategy. The PHILIPPINES are planning to relocate air and naval forces to Subic Bay to cut reaction time by fighter aircraft to contested South CHINA Sea areas. JAPAN is revamping Self Defense Forces from a defensive position to first strike – amphibious island capturing abilities with military frontiers to counter CHINESE intrusion and defend JAPANS East CHINA Sea territories and energy resources. 

CHINA is deploying naval operations west to shield Middle East oil routes. CHINESE submarines loaded with nuclear missiles are on high alert as counteroffensive strategy to turn SOUTH CHINA SEA into off limits zone. CHINA’S military test firing of anti-satellite rockets capable of disrupting communications and the navigation of U.S. carrier strike groups. Pointed at TAIWAN are Carrier Hunter anti-ship warheads intended to destroy the ships’ flight decks, launch catapults and control towers. CHINA’S growing naval assertiveness by circumventing gaps in JAPAN’S Maritime Chokepoints and launching coastguard paramilitary vessels to keep pressure on JAPAN over disputed islands in the EAST CHINA SEA.