JIHAD
IN SYRIA: THE PENETRATION OF RADICAL ISLAM IN THE SYRIAN CONFLICT
Recent reports of
dozens of KUWAITI jihadists traveling to fight in the SYRIAN conflict further highlight the stronger
foothold radical Islamic groups are gaining in SYRIA. Since January 2012, SYRIA has been transformed into a major battleground of the
jihad world, with a number of foreign and SYRIAN jihadist groups surfacing to
participate in the conflict. This development not only poses a serious threat
to the present SYRIAN government or any government that may follow, but also threatens the armed opposition in SYRIA,
headed by the Free SYRIAN Army (FSA).
At present, at least ten different
notable foreign and SYRIAN groups with varying ideologies are waging militant jihad
in SYRIA. In spite of these differences, a useful distinction becomes apparent
when comparing each group’s mode of operation, which can be categorized as one
of three types:
·
The first type is “support” groups that predominantly
assist the flow of arms and fighters into SYRIA.
·
The second are “guerilla” groups that carry out small
scale but regular attacks on security forces.
·
The third are “terror” groups that carry out high
profile bombings outside the usual areas of conflict. Through this distinction,
it quickly becomes evident that the “terror” groups have had the most
significant contribution to the conflict in SYRIA.
These groups have carried out at least twelve high profile
attacks since January 2012, including suicide car bombings in Damascus, Aleppo,
and Idlib. In addition to helping escalate the violence in SYRIA, the attacks caused
a psychological blow to the SYRIAN regime by highlighting some weaknesses of
the SYRIAN security apparatus. Primarily these attacks were carried out by two SYRIAN
Salafist groups, Jabhat al-Nusra and its Idlib based offshoot, Kata’ib Ahrar
al-Sham, these “terror” groups
have been inspired and assisted by al-Qaeda
in IRAQ to become two of the most prominent SYRIAN groups currently
operating in the conflict.
SALAFIST
INSURGENCE FROM IRAQ, JORDAN, EGYPT, AND MOST RECENTLY KUWAIT.
Despite this, “terror” groups in SYRIA do not receive
widespread support within SYRIA and have not attempted to forge links with the
FSA. Nonetheless, outside SYRIA these groups have gained wide support,
including receiving small numbers of foreign Salafist fighters from IRAQ,
JORDAN, EGYPT, and most recently KUWAIT.
This external support has also been extended to a number of
“guerilla” groups operating in the SYRIAN conflict and is linked to the
increased violence around Homs as well as a significant percent increase in
improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against SYRIAN security forces since
January 2012. Despite different ideologies, many of the SYRIAN and foreign
groups in this category have forged loose ties with the FSA and are assisting
them in their fight against the SYRIAN security apparatus, through the use of
guerilla warfare tactics based on experience gained in other jihad arenas. Two
examples of groups that work with the FSA are the SYRIAN group Dhu al-Nurayn and the LEBANESE based
group Fatah al-Islam.
The “support” groups, which constitute the third category,
remain a key link in supplying arms and fighters into SYRIA along preexisting
smuggling routes, mainly from IRAQ and LEBANON. These groups, though remaining
at the sidelines, are important in helping feed the conflict in SYRIA and have
indicated they may join the conflict at a later date. One example is the group
called “The Free Army of IRAQIS.”
SUNNI
GROUPS ON THE DOORSTEP TO SYRIA CHALLENGES HIZBOLLAH’S PREVIOUSLY UNRIVALED
DOMINANCE
With the pressure of the internal
conflict already straining the current SYRIAN government’s authority over the
country, these radical Islamic groups only add to
this pressure. With the small size of these
groups, the unpredictability of their attacks, and their increasing capability
in fomenting unrest, it makes it difficult for SYRIAN security forces to
effectively combat these groups as well as the FSA. In the long term, this
prolonged pressure helps continue to weaken the SYRIAN government. For the main
SYRIAN opposition, the radical Islamic elements are currently a necessary but
problematic partner in its fight against the SYRIAN government: By keeping
these radical Islamic groups at arm's length, making alliances with some, and
denouncing others (especially al-Qaeda),
they are hoping to utilize these groups' fighting power without damaging their
credibility in the eyes of the SYRIAN people and the international community.
Yet in the long term, with these
radical Islamic groups gaining more support and competence, this uneasy
relationship may waver and the opposition, especially the FSA, may find it
faces an additional challenge to its rise to power in SYRIA. The ability of any
future SYRIAN government to control the impact of these radical Islamic groups
is a key question, as a possible repeat of events in IRAQ after the AMERICAN-led
invasion of 2003 demonstrated. In the IRAQI case, radical Islamic elements took
advantage of the power vacuum left from the disintegration of the security
apparatus and established a strong presence there that is still felt today.
Outside SYRIA, radical Islamic
elements in SYRIA could, in the long term, affect two key regional actors:
Hizbollah and ISRAEL. With the conflict already disrupting, Hizbollah’s vital
long term support from SYRIA and IRAN, the emergence of openly hostile radical
Sunni groups on its doorstep in SYRIA challenges Hizbollah’s previously
unrivaled dominance.
For ISRAEL, the conflict in SYRIA has largely been beneficial, helping destabilize SYRIA’S government, and by extension, two of its key allies, IRAN and Hizbollah. However, with the emergence of several radical Islamic groups in SYRIA strongly hostile towards ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S northern border may begin to see attacks from these groups in the future. With the situation in SYRIA growing more sectarian and chaotic, the radical Islamic groups in SYRIA are sure to profit, but to what extent is an open question.
For ISRAEL, the conflict in SYRIA has largely been beneficial, helping destabilize SYRIA’S government, and by extension, two of its key allies, IRAN and Hizbollah. However, with the emergence of several radical Islamic groups in SYRIA strongly hostile towards ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S northern border may begin to see attacks from these groups in the future. With the situation in SYRIA growing more sectarian and chaotic, the radical Islamic groups in SYRIA are sure to profit, but to what extent is an open question.
By Jonathan Robinson via INSS.
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