LIKELY
FORTHCOMING SCENARIO
The US administration placed itself in a dilemma
after announcing the “Red Line” doctrine regarding the use of chemical weapons
in SYRIA. In order to maintain its credibility the US is now forced to react,
at least that is what the US wants the public to believe. AMERICAN public on
the other hand strongly oppose US intervention and involvement in SYRIA.
Update:
Element of surprise lost
From the military perspective, current attack revelations by the U.S. government in terms of SYRIA is counterproductive. The impending strike against the Assad regime is the best pre- announced missile attack in history. Thus the element of surprise is lost and therefore the US are now stalling by claiming the administration has not yet decided if and when to attack. Or are this just deceiving tactics?
Another scenario could be that ISRAEL has received updated intelligence to the fact that if the US and its allies initiate a strike, Assad could launch bio - chemical warheads against ISRAEL and its allies in the region. And thus the US and its allies are debating if they are able to knock out the majority of chemical weapon storage sites in Syria efficiently.
Update:
Element of surprise lost
From the military perspective, current attack revelations by the U.S. government in terms of SYRIA is counterproductive. The impending strike against the Assad regime is the best pre- announced missile attack in history. Thus the element of surprise is lost and therefore the US are now stalling by claiming the administration has not yet decided if and when to attack. Or are this just deceiving tactics?
Another scenario could be that ISRAEL has received updated intelligence to the fact that if the US and its allies initiate a strike, Assad could launch bio - chemical warheads against ISRAEL and its allies in the region. And thus the US and its allies are debating if they are able to knock out the majority of chemical weapon storage sites in Syria efficiently.
SHORT
SURGICAL MISSILE STRIKES BY USA AND ITS ALLIES, SIMILAR TO THOSE CONDUCTED BY
ISRAEL IN RECENT PAST
Thus a US military intervention in SYRIA in most
likelihood will be short surgical missile strikes similar to those conducted by
ISRAEL in recent past in SYRIA, and let the UK, FRANCE and TURKEY intervene in
a more complex, mainly clandestine way. But even public opinion in the UK seems
to oppose UK involvement in the conflict, thus making every step Britain’s
politicians make, precarious one.
With short surgical missile strikes the USA saves
its face by sticking to its threat; mainstream media on the other hand has its
action extravaganza, portraying the intervention in an inflated way in order to
continue the propaganda-media war which has raged in SYRIA since the beginning
of the uprising and last but not least the weapons industry will also be a
benefiter, for the uprising in SYRIA will continue for quite some time.
Interesting to note is that GERMANY’S stance is hardly
ever mentioned when it comes to an allied military intervention in SYRIA.
Granted GERMANY has upcoming elections in a couple of weeks and thus prefers to
keep a low profile on the international stage, but on the other hand is the key
player in the EUROPEAN UNION and usually does not let FRANCE and BRITAIN take
the helm regarding EU foreign policies.
RUSSIA
WILL NOT INTERVENE
RUSSIA on the other hand, despite being a strong
ally of SYRIA will not intervene in case of US military intervention in SYRIA.
Thus the question remains if IRAN will openly intervene. Most probably not, IRAN
will use strong accusative rhetoric’s but will refrain from engaging openly in
the conflict, but rather step up terror attacks against ISRAEL and the USA and
its allies through its proxy, Hezbollah in LEBANON.
CLOSE
COORDINATION BETWEEN THE USA AND ISRAEL
Post US intervention scenario |
ISRAEL clearly will have strong influence on US
decision making and on how the intervention in SYRIA will be conducted, for
clearly the repercussions of such attack will be significant for ISRAEL, thus
surgical – cosmetic strikes are the most likely scenario. Which leaves the
question, why BRITAIN and FRANCE are so eager to engage in SYRIA?
Is it
a deception tactic coordinated with the USA and ISRAEL, or do the two former imperialist,
colonialist powers of the region anticipate geo- strategic advantages if the
current regime is toppled in order to implement a similar strategy as was the
case with the Sykes Picot Agreement between FRANCE and BRITAIN, which divided
the region and specifically SYRIA between the two countries. The 1915 agreement
some argue, was the reason not only for the division of SYRIA but also the
starting point of the ISRAELI Palestinian conflict and thereby causing
instability in the entire region.
See: SYKES PICOT AGREEMENT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement
FRANCES COLONIAL AMBITIONS IN SYRIA
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/frances-colonial-ambitions-in-syria.html
SYRIA
WILL PROBABLY CONDUCT A FEW CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS AGAINST UNPOPULATED
AREAS IN ISRAEL
In retaliation to a Western attack, SYRIA will most
likely launch one or two conventional missiles into ISRAEL, making sure to
cause minimum damage, for they know ISRAEL favors the current regime over a
scattered Islamic fundamentalist regime.
Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote June
2012: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS
……..This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would,
on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any
new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between
two uneasy neighbors’…………
(Read the entire article at:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-feasts-and-rites-of-confusion.html
TURKEY and the GULF STATES will provide support for
the USA but will refrain from conducting their own intervention scenario and
focus on clandestine insurgence operations, propaganda and logistic support.
RUSSIA, as mentioned above, will not intervene
militarily once the US engages in SYRIA, but most probably will increase weapon
supplies to SYRIA, a lucrative business for all parties involved, because the
civil war in SYRIA will in most likelihood continue for a long time, similar to
the civil war in LEBANON which lasted 15 years.
US
PIVOT: IT IS NOT US INTENTION TO TOPPLE ASSAD!
Interesting to note is that the USA recently claimed
it is not the USA’S intention to topple Assad, because he is the lesser of the
two evils, when it comes to choose between Assad and Islamic Fundamentalists. The reason for this shift in rhetoric’s
could be that the US is finally becoming fully aware that if Assad is cornered,
he might really launch his bio – chemical weapons, thus ignite a full scale war
in the region, for unlike IRAQ, SYRIA possesses bio – chemical warheads.
GEOPOLITICAL
ANALYSIS AND MONITORING wrote March 08th
2012 that: Contrary to the weapons of mass destruction hoax fabricated by
the USA in order to justify the IRAQ invasion, SYRIA really posses such lethal
arsenal and probably will not hesitate to use
them when cornered.
Read full article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html
UNPREDICTABLE
REACTION FROM THE ASSAD CLAN IF CORNERED http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html
SYRIA’S BIO – CHEMICAL WARFARE THREAT? LEGITIMATE, OR A WELCOME
EXCUSE FOR US INTERVENTION?
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria_11.html
WELCOME
TO THE MIDDLE EAST
IRAN is backing Assad. The GULF
STATES are against Assad!
Assad is against the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.
But the GOLF STATES are pro-Sisi! Meaning they are against the Muslim Brotherhood!
Iran is pro. Hamas, but Hamas is backing the Muslim Brotherhood!
Obama is backing the Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas are against the US!
The GULF STATES are pro US.
Assad is against the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.
But the GOLF STATES are pro-Sisi! Meaning they are against the Muslim Brotherhood!
Iran is pro. Hamas, but Hamas is backing the Muslim Brotherhood!
Obama is backing the Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas are against the US!
The GULF STATES are pro US.
TURKEY
is with GULF STATES against Assad; yet TURKEY is pro-Muslim Brotherhood and
against General Sisi, and General Sisi is being backed by the GULF STATES!
Welcome to the MIDDLE EAST and have a nice day.
Welcome to the MIDDLE EAST and have a nice day.
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