As the geopolitical game
over Mediterranean hydrocarbons heats up, TURKEY has suspended energy deals
with ITALY’S Eni over the company’s involvement in oil and gas exploration
offshore CYPRUS.
The timing is important. It comes
just days after CYPRUS secured a painful EU bailout package
and it considers extending April bidding for the next round of oil and
gas exploration licenses. Bidding is set to end on 26 May, but may be
prolonged, according to Bloomberg.
EXPLORE IN CYPRUS, GET KICKED OUT OF TURKEY
The extension of the deadline would
give CYPRUS more time to lure in additional investors, which it desperately
needs. TURKEY is hoping to send these potential investors a message: Explore in
CYPRUS, get kicked out of TURKEY.
CYPRUS is divided along
GREEK-CYPRIOT and ethnic TURKISH lines, with the GREEK CYPRIOTS controlling
two-thirds of the Mediterranean island nation. The GREEK-CYPRIOT Republic of
CYPRUS became an EU member in 2004, but TURKEY only recognizes the breakaway
north. TURKEY has warned CYPRUS against any unilateral move to explore for oil
and gas offshore CYPRUS, maintaining that TURKISH CYPRIOTS should have equal
rights to these resources.
TURKEY IS CONCERNED OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT NOBLE ENERGY
INC.’S ANNOUNCES BLOCK 12 AS COMMERCIAL VIABLE
Eni is a key partner in three major
TURKISH pipeline projects. The suspension appears to be centered on the
Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline project, which will transport oil from RUSSIA and
KAZAKHSTAN to TURKEY.
It is unclear what will happen to
Eni’s involvement in two other pipelines, the RUSSIAN-led South Stream
and Blue Stream gas pipelines, which run through the Black Sea to deliver
RUSSIAN gas to TURKEY. Eni has a 20% share in the South Stream project, while
Gazprom holds a 50% share.
In January , Eni and its
partner—SOUTH KOREAN Kogas—signed an agreement to explore in the CYPRIOT part
of the explosively rich Levant Basin. Total, Eni and Kogas plan to conduct
seismic surveys later this year and drill their first wells in 2014.
What’s really irked Turkey is Noble
Energy Inc.’s (NBL) plans to start drilling
an appraisal well in June and the possibility that it could announce commercial
viability in its Block 12 before the end of this year. Noble thinks it’s block
holds a minimum of 7 trillion cubic feet of gas. This is the development to
watch closely, because commercial viability will be the tipping point for
Ankara.
STRATEGIC SHIFT: TURKEY & RUSSIA VERSUS CYPRUS & EU
In the meantime, RUSSIA missed its
chance to win a nice share in CYPRUS’ offshore exploration in return for a bailout package.
Cyprus wasn’t offering enough to make it worth RUSSIA’S while to anger TURKEY,
which it needs for its massive pipeline projects. So far, RUSSIA’S Gazprom has
steered clear of Cypriot waters.
What this comes down to is that a
choice has to be made between CYPRUS and TURKEY. The EU will stick with CYPRUS
for now, and RUSSIA will keep its pipeline plans secure in Turkey.
50 Milliarden Euro in Griechenland, 70 Milliarden Euro in Irland, 40
Milliarden Euro in Spanien - ein Eurostaat nach dem anderen sieht sich
gezwungen, seine Banken mit gigantischen Summen zu stützen, um damit die
Verluste auszugleichen, die den Geldhäusern aus faulen Krediten
entstanden sind. Aber wohin gehen die Milliarden eigentlich? Wer sind
die Begünstigten?
Mit dieser einfachen Frage reist der preisgekrönte Wirtschaftsjournalist
und Sachbuchautor Harald Schumann quer durch Europa und bekommt
verblüffende Antworten.
Die Geretteten sitzen - anders als häufig
vermittelt und von vielen angenommen wird - nicht in den ärmeren
Eurostaaten, sondern hauptsächlich in Deutschland und Frankreich. Ein
großer Teil des Geldes landet nämlich bei den Gläubigern der Banken, die
gerettet werden wollen oder müssen. Und obwohl diese Anleger
offenkundig schlecht investiert haben, werden sie - entgegen aller Logik
der freien Marktwirtschaft - auf Kosten der Allgemeinheit vor jeglichen
Verlusten geschützt. Warum ist das so? Wer bekommt das Geld? Eigentlich
simple Fragen, die aber den Kern der europäischen Identität berühren.
EUROPE WAS A LEADER IN TERMS OF QUALITY INFRASTRUCTURE
Austerity is threatening the EU’s
competitive edge and the region could fall behind other areas of the world if
spending is not kept up on key infrastructure projects including aviation.
Company executives, trade groups and
even EUROPEAN UNION officials themselves say the region is in danger of falling
behind competitors, with possibly irreversible consequences.
EUROPEAN infrastructure spending
rose just 1.5 percent last year to USD$741 billion, compared to global growth
of 4.5 percent and a 7.1 percent rise in ASIA-PACIFIC, according to data
compiled by Marketline, a business information provider.
Spending in EUROPE will increase
slightly over the next four years, to 4.3 percent growth by 2016, Marketline
said, but will continue to significantly under-perform the world average. Only
the UNITED STATES will do worse, with growth of just 1.8 percent seen in 2016.
Trade within EUROPE, which has a
population of more than 730 million and represents roughly 22 percent of the
world's cargo by value, is expected to double in the coming decade.
Brussels said in a policy paper
released before the recent budget cuts that EUR€550 billion (USD$704 billion)
in high-priority projects were needed by 2020 to create a core transport
network to meet the increased demand.
CONCERNS THAT EUROPE RISKS LOSING ITS COMPETITIVE POSITION
The investment would connect 120
major ports and airports to rail, upgrade 15,000 km (9,300 miles) of rail
tracks to high speed and remove 35 key cross-border bottlenecks. The region's
railways use seven different gauges and only 20 major airports and 35 major
ports are directly connected to the rail network.
The upgrades would not only make the
distribution of goods faster and cheaper, but also be required to meet EU
targets to reduce carbon emissions by 60 percent, halve conventional car use
and shift 50 percent of long distance freight onto trains and ships by 2050.
Airline executives have been among
the most outspoken about concerns that EUROPE risks losing its competitive
position if it fails to implement these plans.
Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport
plans to spend EUR€2.1 billion between 2011 and 2015 on new facilities, for
example, while Dubai said last year it plans to invest EUR€6 billion in airport
expansion by 2018 to boost capacity by 50 percent.
"EUROPE was a leader in terms
of quality infrastructure," Air France-KLM chief executive Jean-Cyril
Spinetta told reporters. "I am very concerned about the future, especially
airports. The amount of investment in other regions is incredibly high."
DEUTSCHE Bank owns Vegas investments that equal its exposure in GREECE, SPAIN and PORTUGAL and probably CYPRUS
CYPRUS – IS THE EUROPEAN UNION OPENING PANDORA’S BOX?
By Harris A. Samaras
Are
we witnessing the slow death of the EUROPEAN UNION? Have the repeatedly failing
EU policymakers finally opened Pandora’s Box with their recent proposal for CYPRUS?
Why
are some EUROPEAN member states taking actions that are catastrophic for the EUROPEAN
sentiment?
Aren’t
all citizens of the EU equal under the EUROPEAN law?
It
is a serious blunder and a gaffe when the EU is squeezing the government of one
of its member states, CYPRUS – to confiscate the deposits that rightfully
belong to EU ordinary citizens and others alike! Depositors that trusted the
written and unwritten laws that the EUROPEAN UNION inspired or used to inspire…
Could
such action ever affect the EUROPEAN Financial Crisis positively?
NORTHERN EUROPE VERSUS SOUTHERN EUROPE
CYPRUS
never had a problem with earlier “blunders” caused by EU policy… The CYPRUS
banking sector is indeed quite large but it was in solid state up until the
one-sided decisions of some EUROPEAN governments caused many billions of losses
to banks through the haircut imposed on GREEK sovereign debt and elsewhere
within the EU…
All
EU member states must in concert find a solution for the EU as a whole instead
of shifting the damage to one member state or another… The crisis of the Euro
area is systemic! Decisions taken by the strongest countries in the EU have
spread misery sequentially to citizens in IRELAND, GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN,
ITALY and now CYPRUS. This is not going to end if they, the strongest
countries, keep on handling the crisis in such manner. The EU has to enforce a
decision making process where the EUROPEAN governments are asked to care for
all their citizens. The inability of the EU to take care of its citizens wholly
led to the failure of the EU… clearly seen these days by the way the EU has
handled the CYPRUS financial issue…
IS A CYPRUS-LIKE INCURSION ON PEOPLE’S SAVINGS UNLIKELY TO
HAPPEN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE EU?
This
inconceivable way of blackmailing the government of CYPRUS to confiscate the
deposits is sending a clear message: Nobody with deposits in smaller countries,
such is LUXEMBOURG for instance, should feel safe with her or his deposits;
nobody with deposits in a weaker financially country, such is SPAIN, should
feel safe about her or his deposits either…
Whatever
happens, the CYPRUS story teaches important lessons for every EUROPEAN and not
only economy: Austerity has failed!
A
most valid question which if we answer yes to transforms into an oxymoron: Are
the people that led EUROPE into this mess the right ones to lead EUROPE out of
it?
BOOST GROWTH WITH NO MONEY
Praying
that there will be no bank runs across EUROPE…
It
just does not make any sense…
You
would expect that finance Ministers across EUROPE to have known better…
How
could countries like, CYPRUS, GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN, ITALY and SLOVENIA ever
boost growth with no money? With lending rates continuously dropping how can
any country even have growth?
WHAT IS GERMANY'S REAL ROLL IN ALL THIS?
One
thing is for sure: Decisions like this one about CYPRUS or about the haircut of
the GREEK debt benefit in essence some countries… it can be very easily
observed from the markets that such decisions reduce the financing cost of the GERMAN
government… the GERMAN government can now borrow at negative rates… while it
inflicts pain and misery on other countries… not everyone is equal under the EUROPEAN
law!
Moreover,
GERMANY is quick to scold the citizens of other countries for the actions of
its own government officials and bankers; actions which GERMANY tolerated and
even encouraged for years… enjoying a large market for its manufacturing
products, while exerting enormous financial leverage over other EU member
states… its economic missteps have gone unnoticed and so has its profit-taking
from its EU partners…
Only
an ignorant should not worry that the total failure of the EUROPEAN UNION is
around the corner…
The
EUROPEAN Central Bank has also been quite unclear on its position… and it was
the vehicle to blackmailing the CYPRUS government… thus contributing to say the
least to the mess that the EU is now into…
In
order for the EU to “work”, the EU needs to form a banking union (as per the EUROPEAN
Council’s decision of June 2012) which primarily means that all member states
should have a common credible deposit insurance guarantee; a guarantee that
shall apply to everybody in the Euro Area! Now the EU or better the strongest
states, members of the EU, made a mockery of it, sending clearly the message
that that they do not want to be part of such a decision, a decision that they
so much preached about and advocated for less than a year ago…
Those
in the EU that use blackmail as a mean to their own benefit should think again…
Is it the right way towards a better EU to demand confiscation of somebody’s
deposits? It is not! And notions of recalibrating the amounts to be seized or
better stolen from depositors are not a solution either! The EU as a whole
should take responsibility! And remember this is more about EUROPE than about CYPRUS!
IS IT JUST ABOUT THE RUSSIAN MONEY DEPOSITED IN CYPRUS?
The
EU did not feel that way two decades ago, even a few years ago…
Is
it just a GERMAN-led propaganda which argues that the CYPRUS depositor is aimed
at RUSSIAN oligarchs who evade taxes? But it targets ordinary CYPRIOTS nearly
as much as it targets high depositors and somehow it doesn’t matter if it’s the
life savings of a middle-class family…
Is
it just about the deposits of non-residents? Only very recently the IMF and the
EU stated in their reports about CYPRUS that supervision of international and
local commercial banks in CYPRUS are more than competent, progressed over the
years to the highest of standards…
Is
it just about the recently confirmed and scientifically estimated huge
hydrocarbon reserves of CYPRUS? A fact by the way that has so strangely been
ignored or diminished by the EU and international media…
See:
COULD
IT BE THAT THE TROIKA (WITH GERMANY IN LEAD) IN REALITY FOCUSES ON TAKING
CONTROL OF CYPRUS’S PROCLAIMED HYDROCARBON FINDINGS?
Could
it be that the EU in its effort to save a mere €5.8 billion (the CYPRUS
“bail-out” money)… is upsetting EUROPEAN confidence and trust… facing possible
bank runs… and in essence risking trillions?
