LIBYA:

FOUR YEARS DOWN THE ROAD

Turbulent events in SYRIA, the international community is closely watching, deflect attention from the situation in LIBYA. In this circumstances, the fourth anniversary of the murder of the LIBYAN leader MUAMMAR GADDAFI (October 20, 2011) went by virtually unnoticed. It dotted the ‘i’s and crossed the ’t’s in the internal LIBYAN conflict that commenced in February 2011.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON LIBYA

BOTH SIDES OF THE LIBYAN POLITICAL DIVIDE ARE SUPPORTED BY EXTERNAL POLITICAL ENTITIES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/03/libya-and-united-nations-part-1.html

ISLAM – A CONVENIENT TOOL FOR AMERICA’S GEO -STRATEGIC POLICIES?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2015/03/usa-geopolitics-in-libya.html

Had it not been for the powerful NATO airstrikes sweeping through LIBYA destroying its military facilities and killing personnel, the situation could have been quite different. Back then, they were harping that GADDAFI was allegedly the main obstacle in the way of the “nation rebelling against oppression” and that once he was ousted, the blood shedding would stop, and peace, prosperity and democracy would blossom.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON LIBYA

THE BALKANIZATION OF LIBYA Part 1

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/01/libya-then-and-now-balkanization-of.html

THE BALKANIZATION OF LIBYA Part 2

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/01/libya-then-and-now-balkanization-of_26.html

THE BALKANIZATION OF LIBYA Part 3

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2015/01/libya-then-and-now-balkanization-of_27.html 

LIBYA PLUNGED INTO A DIARCHY

But life proved these statements wrong. After GADDAFI’S death, colonel’s weak opposition fell apart and former military elite jumped to each other’s throats in a fight for a “piece” of the “authority pie.”

In the summer of 2014, LIBYA was plunged into a diarchy with two centers of power: one — in TRIPOLI, the other — in TOBRUK (in the eastern part of LIBYA), each one with its parliament, government and armed forces.

Since that time, combat operations between the two factions continue in some regions in the east, west and south of the country. And these exchanges of fire have transformed into a trench war over time. About 3.5 thousand LIBYAN military personnel and civilians were killed in the combat operations in the period from January 2014 to the end of April this year.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON LIBYA

THE POST-GADDAFI LIBYA IS NOT REAL

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/libya-doomed-from-day-one.html  

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/12/libya.html  

LIBYA’S INSTABILITY IS ALREADY SPILLING OVER INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2015/01/libyas-descent-into-chaos.html

The country is experiencing economic stagnation. Production of oil — the main natural assets of the country — has dropped almost fourfold in comparison with the times of GADDAFI’S rule, from 1.6 ml down to 440 thousand barrels per day.

UN’s mediation to bring the two conflicting LIBYAN blocs to a dialogue and peace talks have proven to be ineffective. For over a year there have been numerous attempts to reconcile the parties. There have been different venues used for reconciliation meetings held under the auspices of a special envoy of UN, BERNARDINO LEON, ranging from EUROPE to MOROCCO, EGYPT and ALGERIA. During the meeting of representatives of the conflicting parties held on October 9, 2015 in MOROCCO, Mr. BERNARDINO announced the names of the government of the LIBYAN national unity, which the parties had allegedly coordinated. But proposals of the UN mediator were rejected by both the internationally recognized parliament of TOBRUK and the government in TRIPOLI.

LIBYA IS A MAGNET ATTRACTING DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL ISLAMIST ELEMENTS

All those who tried to help LIBYA to untie this knot had to face its harsh reality — an overwhelming power crisis. It expectedly broke out after the former system of government and the balance of powers, which had existed in LIBYA for the last 40 years, collapsed after the massive external intervention.

Disagreements (earlier contained by the regime) between tribes and regions incited by ambitions of politicians, between the center and socially disadvantaged rural areas, etc., instigated a wave of violence.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON LIBYA

LIBYA - A FAILED STATE

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/10/libya-failed-state.html

LIBYA - THE WILD WEST OF NORTHERN AFRICA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/10/libya-wild-west-of-northern-africa.html

Groups of mujahedeen have also been engaged in the turmoil in DERNA and SERT, the towns, which took an oath of allegiance to ISIS. From time to time, they show on TV footages depicting how ISLAMISTS behead CHRISTIANS and other “heretics” in these towns.

At the end of 2011, hundreds of insurgents from LIBYA went to SYRIA to help ASSAD’S foes. Later, some of them joined ISIS in SYRIA and IRAQ. In 2014, some of them returned home.

More than ever before, LIBYA is being perceived as a magnet attracting all sorts of destructive regional Islamist elements and as a source of threat for the neighboring countries of NORTH AFRICA and the MIDDLE EAST.

A grim lesson we can learn from the LIBYAN phenomenon (which resulted from the scenario devised and implemented according to the western instructions) is how an internal strife can devastate a rich country and challenge its territorial integrity and unity.

LIBYAN people suffered hefty losses twice. After GADDAFI’S overthrow, when the society divided into the “winners and losers,” and the second time, when the winners divided into two feuding groups and started fighting against each other.

This lesson is a warning for other countries, including SYRIA. In this context, RUSSIA’S efforts to counter expansion of ISIS and its support of DAMASCUS are dictated by common interests of the two countries and peoples in their struggle against this world’s evil. That inspires hopes that situation in the SYRIAN ARAB Republic will advance along a different developmental trajectory than it did in LIBYA.

ARGENTINE ELECTIONS: UNCERTAINTY BEFORE THE KIRCHNER ERA COMES TO AN END

A HIGHLY POLARIZED NATION

Encouragement or autocracy? "DANIEL will continue our great work!" Shouted ARGENTINE President CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER at a campaign event with party colleague and presidential hopeful DANIEL SCIOLI. The 58-year-old governor of the province of BUENOS AIRES, who leads in polls with about 42 percent, remained as always discreet and noncommittal.

Background Information: 

ARGENTINE ELECTIONS 2015

TRIO INFERNALE? MACRI, CLARING GROUP AND ELIOTT MANAGEMENT

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/06/argentina-opinion-on-argentine-politics.html

ARGENTINA AT A CROSSROAD

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/05/argentina-at-crossroad.html

ARGENTINA, BARELY 30 YEARS OF DEMOCRACY, A YOUNG NATION TRYING TO FIND ITS BEARING

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/11/argentine-evolution.html

ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE STIMULUS AND NO AUSTERITY

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/italy-and-argentina-comparison.html

 

Both of them belong to the PERONIST party - a collective movement, ranging from neoliberalism, conservatism to socialism and far the left. While KIRCHNER is considered a center left politician, SCIOLI, who never was the first choice candidate of CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER, seems a more moderate, business-friendly candidate with neoliberal tendencies that do not differ much from his main adversary MAURICO MACRI. This makes it difficult for the bourgeois opposition to snatch the Presidency from the PERONISTS movement in this Sunday’s upcoming Presidential election. The best chances to challenge SCIOLI, according to recent polls, has the mayor of BUENOS AIRES MAURICIO MACRI, a right wing former businessman, who comes short of 30 percent.

MACRI is the son of a self-made immigrant millionaire, who’s only real entrepreneurial achievement so far was resurrecting the legendary BOCA JUNIORS soccer club from rock-bottom to a successful club some years ago.  

"Keep the current model" versus "liberal market opening" are the alternative, for the estimated 32 million eligible voters. The fact that both models have reached their limits, making the decision for voters in ARGENTINA not any easier. The neoliberalism of the 1990s ended with the financial crisis and insolvency of the country in 2001. Then  the KIRCHNER’S emerged – first CRISTIAN’S late husband NESTOR, who died 2010 ruled the country, only to be succeeded by his wife, who adopted a more autocratic  stance on ruling the country, conducting difficult and negotiations with the creditors, nationalized enterprises, and imposed harsh currency exchange controls.

The model was successful: The economy was growing, poverty declined 2003-2013 from 9.9 to 3.7 million, the middle class doubled and the International Financial institutions fumed over the ARGENTINE success story by defying neoliberal financial and economic doctrines.

THE REAL OPPOSITION IS THE MEDIA IN ARGENTINA

The hopelessly divided opposition which in reality are self-seeking one man shows supported by the powerful CLARIN media conglomerate argues that this success had been achieved through high social transfers, bloated bureaucracy and subsidies that made electricity and transport in ARGENTINA unbeatably cheap. The fall in commodity prices (soya, corn, wheat etc.) cut deep in the states budget, thus making it difficult to maintain the necessary level of spending.

Glancing at the economic data shows that the country really is facing economic problems: The artificially high peso casts a burden on the trade balance and inflation is estimated at 25 percent. The opposition also lambasts the current administration for being corrupt. They refer to the rapid accumulation of wealth of the KIRCHNER family, which also includes CRISTINA FERNANDES DE KIRCHNER’S son MÁXIMO, who is running for senator in this Sundays upcoming elections.

The opposition, mainly individual politicians, are deeply split in a center right and left movement which in themselves are even further divided.

MACRI’s polls show that he only has a chance if he manages to achieve a runoff. In such scenario the currently third placed, dissident Peronist ex-MP and former Mayor SERGIO MASSA, could be the tip of the scale.

In the final days of campaigning MASS gained enormous ground over MACRI and thus could even end up in second place on Sundays elections. According to some political observers, the chances of SCIOLI winning in the first round have risen since MACRI’S campaign team has made some serious tactical as well as strategic mistakes, thus loosing ground. 

In summary the three candidate’s economic stance does not differ too much from one another but are in deep contrast to the current administrations economic model. The big question is also if the three will continue to fight the hedge fund (also referred to as vulture funds) of ELLIOT Management who have been in a legal battle over debt issues with ARGENTINA for some time now and who have been facing increasing criticism from the UN as well as other institutions for their questionable business practices.   

Background Information: 

NEOLIBERALISM VERSUS SOCIALISM

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS VERSUS ARGENTINA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/04/international-financial-institutions.html

THE GEOPOLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/09/argentina-geopolitics-of-international.html 

  

ELLIOT CAPITAL HEDGE FUNDS, A CLIENT AND SHAREHOLDER OF FITCH RATING AGENCY?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/argentinean-politics-under-claw-of.html   

US COURT RULING ON ARGENTINE BOND DEFAULT- THE PARIS CLUB, USA AGRICULTURE COMPANIES, AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SPECULATORS “GRAB” FOR ARGENTINA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2011/07/money-makes-world-go-round-and-politics.html

THE CENTRAL BANK OF ARGENTINA BREAKS RANKS WITH NEO-LIBERAL BANKING POLICY AND TARGETS JOBS OVER LOWER INFLATION

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/06/argentinean-central-bank-targets-growth.html   

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/07/argentine-default-to-be-or-not-to-be.html

IMF PLEADS GUILTY BUT INSISTS ON AUSTERITY

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/02/imf-doctrines-and-its-geopolitical.html

WALL STREET ANIMOSITY AGAINST ARGENTINA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/08/wall-street-animosity-against-argentina.html

LATAM NOT ADHERING TO VULTURE FINANCE SYSTEM DICTATED BY IMF, WORLD BANK AND CORPORATIONS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/01/latam-economic-downgrading-tactics-by.html

When ARGENTINA was the “Sunny boy” of the IMF under president MENEM, who unquestionably followed IMF doctrine of privatizing state assets......................................

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/04/argentina-and-repsol.html   

CORPORATOCRACY...... ARGENTINA’S DEFAULT IN 2001, WHICH MANY ARGUE WAS CAUSED TO A LARGE EXTEND BY THE IMF.......

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/10/corporatocracy.html

ARGENTINA HAS REFUSED TO SWALLOW THE IMF’S BELT-TIGHTENING RECIPES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/07/argentina-and-paris-club.html   

Ultra-right candidate MACRI clearly will heed to the neoliberal doctrines and pay the hedge funds in full, thus putting the country once again into even higher debt and financial dependence from organizations such as the IMF the WORLD BANK to name but a few, thus fostering austerity and economic stagnation. But then again one cannot be certain that SCIOLI will not do the same.

Our opinion for Sunday’s most likely election outcome is as follows:

• SCIOLI wins the first round and MASSA could be the big surprise and emerge in second place
• SCIOLI will face a run –off with MASSA
• SCIOLI will face a run – off with MACRI in which MASSA once again will be the tip of scale in the run – off election bid.

QATAR AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL AMBITIONS

QATAR CULTIVATES A NEW GLOBAL IMAGE

At face value, QATAR’S engagement with the world is impressive. DOHA has not only cultivated a strong alliance with the UNITED STATES as the host of U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) and extended overtures to ISRAEL, but until recently the tiny emirate truly also competed with its larger neighbor—the Kingdom of SAUDI ARABIA—for a dominant role in the SUNNI ARAB world. A closer examination of QATARI foreign policy, however, demonstrates that a number of DOHA’S initiatives have proven unsuccessful, diminishing the ultra-rich PERSIAN GULF emirate’s global presence.

Background Information:

QATAR WAS THE MOTHER WHOSE MILK FED THE ISLAMIST GROUPS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/07/qatar-and-muslim-brotherhood.html

THE QATARI PROJECT: “DESTROYING SAUDI ARABIA”?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/saudi-arabia-and-qatar.html

QATAR’S GREAT POWER GAMES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/qatars-great-power-games.html

QATAR RUNS COVERT DESERT TRAINING CAMP FOR ‘MODERATE’ SYRIAN REBELS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/11/qatar-runs-covert-desert-training-camp.html

Until 2011, QATAR sought to use soft power, particularly diplomacy, to increase its presence and establish the GULF nation as a major actor on the international stage. However, after the ARAB Spring erupted across the MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA (MENA), QATAR quickly shifted its foreign policy strategy. Instead of focusing on soft power, DOHA became increasingly involved in regional conflicts, most notably in LIBYA and SYRIA. In the process, QATAR’S work to cultivate relations based on soft power was quickly undone and DOHA’S status as an influential regional actor was diminished.

At this juncture, a key question remains unanswered. Where does QATAR go from here? It appears that the emirate is seeking to re-cultivate its soft power influence. However, rather than relying on diplomacy, the QATARIS seem to be using the culture of competitive sports to promote their views. Branding is central and critical to QATAR’S long term plan, and they are heavily investing in global sporting ventures to promote their image before the world.

MEDIATION AND DIPLOMACY: 2003–2011

Despite QATAR’S tiny size—both geographically and demographically—DOHA’S foreign policy earned the emirate significant influence from 2003 until the ARAB Spring uprisings of 2011. Prior to the SYRIAN crisis, QATAR’S strategy was to maintain positive relations with all influential actors without committing to any one particular party. From 2003 onward, EMIR SHEIKH HAMAD formulated foreign policy in a manner that garnered QATAR a reputation for being an “honest” peace broker.

This reputation was evident in the peace that the former Emir of QATAR helped broker between the U.S., UK, and LIBYA over the dismantling of the LIBYAN nuclear program. In 2008, DOHA played a highly productive role in resolving LEBANON’S internal crisis, thereby preventing another LEBANESE civil war from erupting. The QATARIS also exerted their diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts and tensions in AFGHANISTAN, DARFUR, Palestine, and the Horn of AFRICA.

Throughout this period, DOHA relied heavily on AL-JAZEERA (QATAR’S state-run news network), currently referred to as one of the major wings of QATARI public diplomacy. By 2006, the network had added a twenty-four hour channel and diversified its reach by broadcasting programs in TURKISH and even SWAHILI; by 2010 it was reported that seventy-eight percent of the ARAB World relied upon AL-JAZEERA for international news. Attracting such a wide and diverse audience played a critical role in the cultivation of QATARI soft power throughout the 2000s. The QATARI leadership was quick to realize that via AL-JAZEERA the emirate was able to promote its values and ideas, as well as a positive image, throughout the MENA region.

Furthermore, AL-JAZEERA enabled QATAR to manipulate international events to advance DOHA’S interests. A key example of this occurred in 2009. In a cable sent to DOHA, the U.S. Embassy claimed that SHEIKH HAMAD told then-Senator JOHN KERRY about a bargain he had in place with then-EGYPTIAN President HOSNI MUBARAK. AL-JAZEERA would not broadcast any programs on EGYPT or its government, in exchange for a shift in CAIRO’S position on ISRAEL-PALESTINE negotiations. Though MUBARAK is reported to have said nothing in response, there is little doubt that AL-JAZEERA is not as editorially independent as it claims.

DIRECT INVOLVEMENT: 2011-2012

In 2011, QATAR inexplicably changed its strategy. Soft power was swapped out for direct military involvement. In LIBYA, DOHA took an active role against MUAMMAR GADDAFI. Not only did the emirate provide serious funding and an estimated twenty thousand tons of weaponry, but it also trained and sent LIBYAN exiles and other militia groups to fight. Doha also became deeply involved in SYRIA and EGYPT’S ARAB Spring uprisings. Yet QATAR’S failure to advance its interests in these countries significantly diminished DOHA’S credibility. QATAR’S soft power card suffered, as did AL-JAZEERA’S reputation after it was heavily criticized for an alleged editorial bias.

EGYPT is the clearest example of QATAR’S fall from grace. According to many observers, QATAR used AL-JAZEERA to spread its pro-MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD agenda. Following the EGYPTIAN coup d’état of July 3, 2013 which ousted MOHAMMED MORSI, a growing number of EGYPTIANS began viewing AL-JAZEERA as little more than a promoter of QATARI interests. The military takeover in CAIRO forced QATAR to withdraw from EGYPT, leaving its GULF rival SAUDI ARABIA to capitalize on the situation and provide the junta with USD 13 billion in aid, reasserting Riyadh’s position as a regional mediator.

THE WORLD CUP BID

In DECEMBER 2010, QATAR won the bid to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, beating JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, and the U.S. This was arguably the beginning of QATAR’S efforts to cultivate a new form of soft power in which DOHA would promote itself as a global sporting destination.

However, since securing the bid, QATARIS have been subjected to high levels of criticism. Voices accuse DOHA of becoming the host of the World Cup in 2022 through corrupt maneuvers, as well as failing to protect the human rights of its migrant work force. Consequently, the domestic brand and image that DOHA sought to promote is not what the world sees today. 

While many commentators argue that the allegations have set back any new ambitions of QATAR, DOHA’S reaction is telling. While QATAR’S leadership has hit back against allegations surrounding the infamous MOHAMED BIN HAMMAM, DOHA views the World Cup as simply one wing of QATAR’S overall strategy. In part, this seems to be due to the smart and wide-ranging investments that they have made since winning the bid. Although QATAR’S image has been damaged, it is premature to conclude that this damage is permanent.

THE FUTURE

It appears that in recognition of their dwindling regional influence, the QATARIS have embarked upon a new strategy of cultivating soft power through sport and culture. Since 2010, the QATARIS have invested massive amounts of wealth into a number of major sporting companies and ventures. This strategy represents both a diversification of the QATARI economy as well as a move to regain its lost international status. DOHA is aware that the emirate’s natural gas reserves cannot last forever and QATAR is already facing growing competition from the U.S. and AUSTRALIA. Bloomberg’s energy desk believes that by 2018 AUSTRALIA will be the leading manufacturer of Liquefied Natural Gas. At this juncture, DOHA views sports as a means to open new doors into more financial deals and to re-cultivate international influence following failed foreign policy strategies regarding the ARAB Spring.

In the near future sporting culture will form an increasingly central part of QATAR’S international strategy. In the aftermath of the controversy surrounding the FIFA World Cup bid, it is vital that QATAR builds a successful international brand and this is exactly what is happening. The QATARIS, recognizing the importance of branding and have made strategic investments in this sector.

Only large, globally recognizable brands will be found in the QATARI portfolio. Key examples include BARCELONA and PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN, two of the best known and most successful football teams which are now QATARI-owned. The spillover effects from these investments may eventually translate to growing economic and political relationships with the FRENCH and SPANISH governments. Beyond this, QATAR has also reportedly made a USD 7 billion bid for a controlling stake in Formula 1 Racing. The emirate has also invested in UK horse racing, DEUTSCHE BANK, and AMERICAN EXPRESS, just to name a few strategic moves.

By engaging with projects across the world, QATAR is positioning itself to regain influence on an international scale with an entirely different strategy. By associating with global brands, DOHA is embarking on a new course of creating relationships and developing partnerships with key actors and institutions. Presently, QATAR’S influence is markedly less than it was in 2010. Yet, the dream of establishing a dominant global presence is not over. Qatar’s immense natural resource wealth will secure a prosperous future for the GULF state. Ultimately, this prosperity will ensure that the tiny emirate’s presence remains disproportionately large.

By Gulf State Analytics Akhil Shah

IRAN AND RUSSIA IN SYRIA:

WHAT ARE THE STAKES?

   

IRAN has a number of reasons to prop up ASSAD, while IRAN’S ARAB rivals, especially in the PERSIAN GULF, and TURKEY, are supporting the opposition groups including extremists to force him out of office. The fall of ASSAD can bring into power SAUDI-TURKEY-backed successors that would be anathema to IRAN.

First, IRAN and SYRIA along with HEZBOLLAH in LEBANON constitute an “axis of resistance” and a ‘SHIA crescent” in the view of IRAN’S rivals, and SYRIA is the only way that IRAN can keep touch with HEZBOLLAH.

IRAN CONSIDERS SYRIA A KEY ELEMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT

Second, IRAN is concerned about IRAQ, which shares a long border with IRAN. IRAN considers SYRIA a key element in the protection of the IRAQI government. If the SYRIAN government loses to SUNNI extremist opposition groups, it can adversely impact the IRAQI government, and directly threaten IRAN’S western border.

Third, SYRIA, which has been IRAN’S only ARAB ally in the region, holds a significant position in IRAN’S anti-imperialist revolutionary principles. Thus, it has been a vital figure in helping IRAN break the isolation caused by being surrounded by a SUNNI and ARAB majority. If SYRIA were to collapse, it would change the balance of power in the MIDDLE EAST against IRAN, and lead to its further isolation.

Involvement in SYRIA is a zero-sum game for IRAN, and the SAUDI ARABIA-TURKEY combine. IRAN sees SYRIA as part of the solution while SAUDI ARABIA and TURKEY, would like to see SYRIA without ASSAD. So, ASSAD’S government collapse will definitely have security, political and economic repercussions for TEHRAN and damage IRAN’S credibility and prestige as a revolutionary dominating state.

Background Information:

A CHALLENGING TIME FOR RUSSIA-IRAN TIES

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2015/04/russia-and-iran.html

A SPY WHO TRIED TO SCALE KREMLIN WALL

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/08/russia-and-saudi-arabia.html

SYRIA, RUSSIA, AND IRAN REFUSE TO HEED TO TURKISH GEOSTRATEGIC AND POLITICAL INTERESTS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html

RUSSIAN FORCES TAKE SYRIAN CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDER CONTROL

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/09/russian-forces-take-syrian-chemical.html

RUSSIA’S MOTIVES

SYRIA’S alliance with RUSSIA dates back to the days of the SOVIET UNION. There might have been some tactical changes in their policies towards each other at certain times, but the nature of their alliance has always been the same. SYRIA and RUSSIA’S opposition to the West has brought the two countries close together.

RUSSIA has a naval military base in TARTUS, SYRIA. This is RUSSIA’S only naval base in the MEDITERRANEAN, which plays a vital role in RUSSIA’S SYRIA policy and its maritime doctrine. This is significant motivation to support ASSAD.

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:

Worthwhile to mention is that the RUSSIAN Naval base in TARTUS has only gained strategical significance since the start of the civil war in SYRIA, prior to that the base might have been, per decree of the SYRIAN Government, called “RUSSIAN NAVAL BASE” but hardly ever saw RUSSIAN Naval movement or RUSSIAN military activity per say. (Except of some RUSSIAN military advisor paying sporadic visits to the base once in a while)  As far as open source Intel goes, the naval base, until the civil war was solely used by the SYRIAN Navy. Since the beginning of the civil war however the navy base became the political as well as strategic focal point of both the West and RUSSIA.   

Unlike RUSSIA’S claim of targeting the Islamic State (IS), most of RUSSIA’S recent strikes have been planned in the WESTERN part of SYRIA – HAMA, LATAKIA and IDLIB – where anti-ASSAD non-IS operatives dominate. This is in order to secure the naval bases, and check any threat to ASSAD that could undermine RUSSIA’S authority in the region.

JIHADISTS FROM CHECHEN AND CAUCASUS ARE ANOTHER REASON THAT HAS BROUGHT RUSSIA TO SYRIA.

CHECHEN IS leader
ABU OMAR AL-SHISHANI

It is estimated that around 2,500 RUSSIAN nationals and 7,000 others from former SOVIET republics have joined the IS and other Islamist groups fighting against ASSAD. Prominent among them is the CHECHEN IS leader ABU OMAR AL-SHISHANI, who hopes to return home and fight against MOSCOW after bringing ASSAD down. These jihadists could pose a big threat inside RUSSIA’S borders. Hence, considering the frequent attacks by CHECHENS inside RUSSIA, this is a national security issue for PUTIN and a pre-emptive war.

Background Information:

RUSSIA NEEDS IRAN’S COOPERATION IN ORDER TO STRATEGICALLY SECURE THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/06/israeli-azerbaijani-alliance-and-iran.html

For ASSAD, this is a question of self-preservation. Without IRANIAN and RUSSIAN involvement, his government would have toppled. From his point of view, there is no difference between extremists such as the IS and seculars such as the SYRIAN Free Army. In fact, secular fighters could very well be more threatening to ASSAD’S SYRIA than the IS if the former are to grow in strength.

WHAT BRINGS IRAN AND RUSSIA TOGETHER IN SYRIA?

IRAN and RUSSIA have become close partners given common enemies, and common friends. Both, for different reasons, share similar attitudes towards SYRIA.

According to the IRANIAN point of view, extremists in SYRIA are supported by the US and its regional allies to bring down ASSAD. IRAN’S cooperation with RUSSIA could therefore be a turning point that could undo their attempt. Saving ASSAD means IRAN can secure its regional hegemonic position and restore a favorable balance of power.

For RUSSIA, their victory would mean removing opposition to ASSAD, which could also involve the crushing of CHECHEN rebels before their return to RUSSIA. This would also allow RUSSIA to play an international role and gain decision-making power in the SYRIAN crisis that would, in turn, help RUSSIA expand its influence and emerge as a crucial player in the region.

By Majid Izadpanahi via IPCS