Tuesday, 31 March 2015

YEMEN AND SAUDI ARABIA



INTO THE MAELSTROM: THE SAUDI-LED MISADVENTURE IN YEMEN

Citing a request for outside intervention by YEMEN’S deposed President ABD-RABU MANSOUR HADI, the governments of SAUDI ARABIA, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, BAHRAIN, QATAR, KUWAIT, and JORDAN have launched an aerial intervention against the so-called HOUTHI movement in YEMEN. EGYPT has four warships en route to ADEN In southern YEMEN and has expressed willingness to “send ground troops if necessary,” while TURKEY is considering providing logistical support. SUDAN and PAKISTAN are also reportedly joining the operation.



Background Information: YEMEN

YEMEN FIGHTING RISKS DEEPENING SECTARIAN DIVISIONS

YEMEN A CRITICAL BUT FORGOTTEN FRONT

BAB EL-MANDAB: STRATEGIC LINK BETWEEN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA, VIA THE RED SEA AND THE SUEZ CANAL at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2013/08/yemen.html


The HOUTHIS, also known as ANSAR ALLAH in ARABIC, or GOD’S PARTISANS, are a ZAIDI SHIA movement that began a rebellion in northern YEMEN in 2003–2004. In the chaos following the Arab Spring revolutions and the internationally overseen removal of YEMEN’S long-serving authoritarian ruler ALI ABDULLAH SALEH in 2012, the HOUTHIS expanded their power base—apparently with IRANIAN support—to undermine the SAUDI-backed HADI government.

In 2014, the HOUTHIS linked up with allies of the SALEH family, which is still angling for a way to recapture power, and rapidly pushed south, capturing the capital, SANAA. They then moved on to ADEN, where HADI had fled before leaving the country by sea on March 25 (it was announced that he arrived in RIYADH on March 26). Meanwhile, a separate SALAFI-SUNNI insurgency led by AL-QAEDA in the ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) continues to rage in the south and east of the country, with the self-proclaimed ISLAMIC STATE having recently raised its own profile in YEMEN by publicizing a string of gruesome massacres.

The intervention, dubbed OPERATION DECISIVE STORM, includes all member states of the GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) except OMAN, but SAUDI ARABIA—long an influential actor in YEMENI politics—is clearly the driving force behind it.

SAUDI ARABIA’S RAPPROCHEMENT WITH TURKEY AND QATAR

The operation comes at a critical juncture not only for YEMEN but also for SAUDI ARABIA and the region. In January 2015 former SAUDI KING ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ passed away and was succeeded by his half-brother King SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ. YEMEN has been King SALMAN’S most immediate foreign policy challenge since he ascended the throne.



Background Information: QATAR AND SAUDI ARABIA

THE QATARI PROJECT: “DESTROYING SAUDI ARABIA”?

QATAR INVESTED BILLIONS TO EXPAND ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

HOW MUCH AND TO WHOM IS QATAR PAYING? THE ANSWER: WAHHABI ASSOCIATIONS AND MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

STRIVING FOR BECOMING THE REGIONAL POWER PLAYER


At the diplomatic level, OPERATION DECISIVE STORM is a notable success for the monarch. It is the first deployment of the joint GCC military command set up in November 2014, and it is a product of his careful rapprochement with TURKEY and QATAR. The fact that the UNITED STATES has backed the operation is also significant and serves as further confirmation that the mutual estrangement in the last years of King ABDULLAH’S rule is fading away.

PROXY WAR BETWEEN IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA

The operation is also a boost domestically for SALMAN’S line, particularly his son MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, whose appointment as minister of defense was initially met with skepticism due to his youthful age and lack of experience. SAUDI media is now portraying MOHAMMED as personally spearheading the anti-HOUTHI operation, with one article exclaiming that “the sons of King SALMAN are at the forefront of DECISIVE STORM both on land and in the air.” MOHAMMED’S brother KHALED BIN SALMAN is an air force pilot.

Background Information: SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN

SAUDI ARABIA’S PROXY WAR

MIDDLE EAST UNDER THREAT AS IRAN ENCOURAGES SHIITE UPRISING IN SAUDI ARABIA?




SAUDIS HAVE LARGELY OVERSTATED IRANIAN INFLUENCE OVER THE HOUTHIS

On one level, what is now playing out in YEMEN is a religiously inflected proxy war between IRAN and SAUDI ARABIA, but that is not a sufficient explanation. In all probability, the SAUDIS have largely overstated IRANIAN influence over the HOUTHIS. The portrayal of what is happening in YEMEN as an IRANIAN takeover is meant to rally U.S. and GULF/ARAB support for the SAUDI position in what is essentially a localized, power struggle between the center and the periphery in YEMEN in which the SAUDIS had placed their bet with the center.

Background Information: SAUDI ARABIA

THE ENDLESS WAR: SAUDI ARABIA GOES ON THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST IRAN



That said, it remains unclear what political end state is envisaged for this operation, which comes months too late to preserve the power of SAUDI ARABIA’S traditional allies on the ground in YEMEN. Pro-SAUDI factions, such as the tribal militias of the powerful AL-AHMAR family, various SALAFI groups, and the government of ousted president HADI, have all been decisively beaten by the HOUTHIS since their southward advance began in earnest in mid-2014. While there is no shortage of anti-HOUTHI groups and powerful remnants of these forces, and though such units may still coalesce into a viable fighting force, they have not done so yet and the obstacles are many.

GULF COALITION AIRSTRIKES SHOULD NOT BE OVERESTIMATED

For the moment, and perhaps the foreseeable future, SAUDI ARABIA lacks a strong ally on the ground to exploit the aerial attacks, and such attacks may not be enough. History shows that airstrikes without corresponding ground forces do not produce decisive victories.



The capacity of GULF airstrikes should also not be overstated. At the moment, the intervention forces appear to be going after fixed targets that were identified in advance, like air bases and command centers rather than mobile HOUTHI units, fighters in urban areas, or supply lines. To engage targets of the more mobile type—which would be far more useful in a battle of the kind now raging in YEMEN—would require coordination with local allies on the ground and the use of spotters to guide airstrikes.

It is hard to see the SAUDIS deploying ground forces to eject the HOUTHIS, given the likelihood of a quagmire without a clear exit. An exception may be a buffer zone on the SAUDI ARABIA–YEMEN border, similar to SAUDI ARABIA’S inconclusive 2008–2009 intervention. While an intervention of this type could in fact apply significant pressure on the HOUTHIS—given that their leadership and much of the core armed cadre hails from the SAADA region on the SAUDI border—it would require significant effort, and it would not in itself sort out the situation further south in SANAA and ADEN.

MILITARY VICTORY MAY NOT BE THE GOAL - TEMPERATE SAUDI APPROACH TO THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD HOWEVER COULD BE THE GOAL

The SAUDIS can aim to use the air operation to gain greater leverage in negotiations for some sort of power-sharing agreement. To this end, they are also rekindling their relationship with the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD–affiliated faction of the ISLAH PARTY in order to buy influence on the ground and reassemble anti-HOUTHI forces. This also fits with the recent, more temperate SAUDI approach to the BROTHERHOOD regionally.


The net effect of this operation is ultimately dangerous for YEMEN’S future path. It will open up more fissures on the ground, perhaps bolster the HOUTHIS’ popular support as defenders of YEMENI sovereignty, and create more opportunities for AQAP and the ISLAMIC STATE to flourish.


Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the original article written by FREDERIC WEHREY

Monday, 30 March 2015

LIBYA AND THE UNITED NATIONS - Part 2



UN SECURITY COUNCIL SUPPORTING WESTERN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA





Related articles:

WAS LIBYA GETTING A TOO POWERFUL PLAYER IN AFRICA FOR WESTERN ENTITIES?

IT’S ALL ABOUT WATER, OIL AND THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

LIBYA: FROM FINANCIAL POWERHOUSE OF AFRICA TO INDEBTED COUNTRY, THANKS TO FOREIGN INTERVENTION




Abu ANAS AL-LIBI and AHMED ABU KHATTALA were only two of the hundreds of LIBYANS who had gained their expertise from the networks that were spawned by Western intelligence forces in the anti-GADDAFI fight. These groups could never agree and ended up in rival militias. Those militias that were from the western parts of LIBYA coalesced around the groups called DAWN. DAWN forces were resisting the domination of the bureaucratic and professional elements who called themselves the legitimate government. This faction won the most recent ‘elections’ in LIBYA. This is the faction that claims international legitimacy, the 200-member Council of Representatives (COR).

OVER $100 BILLION UNDER THE GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK

With the support of QATAR, SUDAN, and TURKEY, the “illegitimate forces” controlled one of the most strategic assets in post-GADDAFI LIBYA, the Central Bank. It is reported that there is over $100 billion under the Governor of the Central Bank. These militias, with the backbone forces hailing from MISRATA, had pushed through a law in 2013 excluding former officials of the GADDAFI government from participating in the government.[7] This law was one of the many steps to marginalize those educated elements who had worked closely with SAIF AL ISLAM as “reformers” but had jumped ship to place themselves at the head of the rebellion in 2011.

REBELLION CHIEF HIFTER RETURNED TO LIBYA WITH THE BLESSING OF THE USA

One of those who had placed himself at the head of the rebellion was General HIFTER who had been part of the armed forces of LIBYA under GADDAFI. In the 1980s he joined the opposition and retreated to VIRGINIA in the USA. After the incessant NATO bombings in 2011, he returned to LIBYA and placed himself as the most senior officer in the rebellion, especially after the assassination of General YOUNIS. There were credible media reports that HIFTER returned with the blessings of a faction of the US policy-making community based in LANGLEY, VIRGINIA. Like the Western supported (COR), HIFTER could not build a real political and military base and was driven out of BENGHAZI militarily. In February 2014, HIFTER called a coup d’etat but no one paid attention. It was after this failure that HIFTER turned to EGYPT, ALGERIA and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES for military support. 

Gen. HIFTER - US sponsored?
Then, these states bombed positions of rival militias in BENGHAZI. HIFTER is supposed to be aligned to the internationally recognized government in BAYDA, but as one can see from the withdrawal of the QATAR ambassador from EGYPT, there are members of the GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL that do not recognize this government in BEYDA.

In many of the recommendations coming out of the think tanks and policy centers of the West there have been calls for reconciliation between the HIFTER forces and the MISRATA forces. The specter of continued proxy warfare between QATAR, TURKEY and SUDAN on one side and EGYPT and SAUDI ARABIA on the other was very disquieting for the Western imperial forces that want to dominate the future of LIBYA and NORTH AFRICA. Hence, on August 27, the UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL adopted Resolution 2174, authorizing the placement of financial and travel sanctions on individuals and entities in LIBYA and internationally who are found to be “engaging in or providing support for other acts that threaten the peace, stability or security of LIBYA, or obstruct or undermine the successful completion of its political transition.”

THERE IS REAL MONEY IN TRIPOLI

Having failed militarily and politically to hold power in TRIPOLI, the Western backed forces of the COR that had been driven to the border at TOBRUK then sought the intercession of the UNITED NATIONS. By the summer of 2014, TRIPOLI was no longer safe for Western embassies and their strategic planners. They fled to strategize from next door in TUNISIA. The UNITED NATIONS deployed BERNARDINO LEÓN to negotiate a settlement between the rival forces. Since these negotiations have been underway, there emerged an even deadlier struggle regarding the control of the CENTRAL BANK.

From the NEW YORK TIMES we learnt that the Treasury Secretary of the UNITED STATES, JACK LEW, threw his support behind SADIK OMAR EL-KABER, Chairman of the CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA. There is one branch of the CENTRAL BANK IN BENGHAZI that was seized recently by the “internationally recognized government” forces loyal to BEYDA, but the gold and reserves are held in Tripoli.

According to the NEW YORK TIMES, “The central bank, which holds more than $100 billion in foreign cash reserves and investments, has so far remained aloof from the chaos that has steadily engulfed LIBYA since the ouster of Col. MUAMMAR EL-QADDAFI in 2011. The bank’s chairman, SADIK OMAR EL-KABER, a respected veteran of several international banks who was appointed by the Western-backed transitional government after Colonel QADDAFI fell, had sought to remain neutral.
‘The central bank is the last line of defense of state institutions and it is very important that it stays far away from political struggles,’ the bank said in a statement at the beginning of the month.”[8]

US TREASURY VERSUS US FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT

Where are the analysts who can shed light on why the US Treasury supports the faction in TRIPOLI that controls the CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA, while the FOREIGN POLICY ESTABLISHMENT and intelligence services support the HIFTER faction that has been pushed to the margins of LIBYAN society in the BAYDA–TOBRUK region?

In the past six months, the UNITED NATIONS has been seeking to give weight to this faction camped out in the EAST while awaiting EGYPTIAN military support. Members of the SECURITY COUNCIL who have been destabilized by the activities of the NATO forces and their allies cannot be intellectually and politically lazy when it comes to this new quest by FRANCE and EGYPT to seek the mandate of the UN to enter into LIBYA to give legitimacy to the HIFTER faction. The “internationally recognized faction” of LIBYAN society has now called on the SECURITY COUNCIL of the UNITED NATIONS to lift the arms embargo against LIBYA, so that LIBYANS can defend themselves against ISIS. This claim must be scrutinized by the real international community, the billions of world citizens who are suffering from the repression, exploitation, militarism and plunder of the imperial project of Western capitalism.

WESTERN DESTABILIZATION, ISIS AND THE COUNTER-REVOLUTIONARY MOMENT

The uprisings in EGYPT and TUNISIA signaled a profound turn of the peoples against the plunder and exploitation of their societies. The Western political establishment and military that supported governments such as BEN ALI and HOSNI MUBARAK were taken aback by the swiftness of the removal of these loyal servants of neo-liberal capitalism. In the book ‘Global NATO and the Catastrophic Failure in LIBYA’ the intervention in LIBYA had been precipitated by the need to have a base to launch a war against the workers of EGYPT when the revolution matures and the people rise up against the militarists of the region. 

The same Western media that have been pushing the drumbeats of war are in the main silent when EGYPT imprisons and kills those who want fundamental change in EGYPT. In the same week that EGYPT was bombing LIBYA, the courts under the military leader EL-SISI sentenced the prominent EGYPTIAN activist ALAA ABDEL-FATTAH to five years in prison. Eighteen others were sentenced to three years in prison and also fined for opposing the military dictatorship in EGYPT.

THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL SHOULD BE LURED INTO BACKING WESTERN FORCES TO TAKE CHARGE OF LIBYA

The politics of retrogression in LIBYA and EGYPT has descended to such a state and the peoples do need peace. Yet the nature of the political and economic crisis in EGYPT is in many ways even direr to the point where EGYPTIAN workers will still go to LIBYA to eke out a livelihood. Many from the progressive movements have retreated from a clear position of support for the EGYPTIAN workers and their allies who want peace. The SECURITY COUNCIL OF THE UNITED NATIONS must not be railroaded to place the Western-backed forces in charge of LIBYA. There should be clear opposition to the proxy wars in LIBYA and for the UN to expose and expel EGYPT, QATAR, TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA from their mischief-making in LIBYA.

Before NATO’s intervention, LIBYA’S civil war was on the verge of ending, at the cost of barely 1,000 lives. Since then, however, LIBYA has suffered at least 10,000 additional deaths from conflict. In other words, NATO’s intervention appears to have increased the violent death toll more than tenfold.

THE NONALIGNED WORLD AND THE SPIRIT OF BANDUNG

This year marks 60 years since the people of the global South met in BANDUNG to oppose colonialism and imperialism. In those 60 years the frontiers of colonialism have been replaced by the Wests usage of financial warfare to oppress the common people and support financial institutions. In a world where the bankers are promoting austerity everywhere, the push by Global NATO is to control all sources of maneuver by oppressing people. Religious extremism has now been found to be a useful tool to promote barbarism and counter-revolution. In a context of neo-liberal austerity and alienation, the payment of a monthly stipend by Gulf billionaires to unemployed youths is one more expedient to hinder the full mobilization and politicization of these youths of the full impact of capitalism on humans everywhere.

Pope Francis has weighed in on the beheadings and called the 21 EGYPTIAN Copts who were murdered by supporters of the ISLAMIC STATE “martyrs.” The Pope stated that the 21 died purely because they were Christians. ISIS is following a grand tradition of beheadings and cutting off of hands that had been perfected by repressive governments for centuries. Progressive intellectuals and anti-imperial forces have for long been pointing to the fact that the war against the regime of ASSAD in SYRIA by the SAUDI government provided the conditions for the rise of ISIS. Other independent authorities reach even further back as in the case of the former UN SECRETARY GENERAL. Speaking at the MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE in GERMANY, Kofi Annan blamed the 2003 US-led invasion of IRAQ for the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), warning that the MIDDLE EAST must evolve and adapt for lasting peace.

“The folly of that fateful decision was compounded by post-invasion decisions. The wholesale disbandment of the security forces, among other measures poured hundreds of thousands of trained and disgruntled soldiers and policemen onto the streets. The ensuing chaos has proved an ideal breeding ground for the SUNNI radical groups that have now coalesced around the ISLAMIC STATE label.”

ROLE OF US INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES IN EASTERN LIBYA

This same statement about the outcomes of the war in IRAQ can be stated quite firmly in relation to the outcomes of the NATO intervention in LIBYA. In short, it is not possible to fully discuss how to rid LIBYA and NORTH AFRICA of the so-called ISIS without a full blown examination of the role and activities of the CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY in EASTERN LIBYA. Many of the misguided youths who are now called ISIS were recruited by the CIA in the aftermath of the overthrow of GADDAFI to go to fight in SYRIA. These same LIBYANS are returning and have understood the importance of propaganda. Hence, the slick video messages with profound bloodletting are staged for maximum shock. These recruits learnt the full meaning of Shock and Awe.

One can agree with the Pope that the beheadings represented a “barbaric assassination,” but the Pope needs to use the moral authority of his position to expose and condemn the known elements that bankroll ISIS. Now, the military regime in EGYPT is working with the faction of LIBYANS who are supposed to be the legitimate government to call on the UNITED NATIONS to lift the arms embargo against LIBYA and to authorize the open military intervention of EGYPT into LIBYA. The EGYPTIAN regime has now sought to neutralize BRICS by seducing the leader of RUSSIA and presenting himself as being anti-imperialist. SAUDI ARABIA is at the same time seeking to seduce CHINA so that the forces of the global SOUTH will be divided about what is going on in LIBYA and EGYPT. In the UN SECURITY COUNCIL both the representatives of CHINA and RUSSIA are proving that when it comes to questions of destruction in AFRICA they will take a backseat to the machinations of the P3.

The progressive forces will have to be cautious about the hype over the so-called Islamic state. The political leadership of SAUDI ARABIA cannot support violent extremists all over the world and then seek to distance itself from elements such as ISIS that emerged out of its financing of JIHADIDTS that are fighting in IRAQ and SYRIA. When the academics and scribes for the military and foreign policy establishment join in this new call for military intervention in LIBYA to fight ISIS, the progressive forces must organize in all ways possible to expose and deter the UN from giving legitimacy to the repressive regime of EGYPT to whip up militarism in order to maintain itself in power.

By Horace G. Campbell

END NOTES

[1] Grace Dent, “If teenage girls want to join Isis in the face of all its atrocities, then they should leave and never return,” The Independent, February 23, 2015. http://tinyurl.com/k7vepky
[2] Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: ISIS Executed Hundreds of Prison Inmates,” October 30, 2014. http://tinyurl.com/lkws28b
[3] Patrick Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution, Verso Books, 2014
[4] See Horace Campbell, “The US, NATO, and the Destruction of Libya,” Telesur, July 31, 2014. http://tinyurl.com/pvga7ef
[5] David D. Kirkpatrick, “Brazen Figure May Hold Key to Mysteries: Ahmed Abu Khattala Capture May Shed Light on Benghazi Attack,” New York Times, June 17, 2014. http://tinyurl.com/qat876s
[6] See Horace Campbell, “Lessons from the Kidnapping of Abu Anas al-Libi in Tripoli: Counter-Terrorism and Imperial Hypocrisy’” Counterpunch, November 8-10, 2013. http://tinyurl.com/or89zlb
[7] David D. Kirkpatrick, “New Law in Libya Bans Some From Office,” News York Times, May 5, 2013. http://tinyurl.com/ns9m9sv
[8] David D. Kirkpatrick, “Libyan Parliament Fires Central Bank Chairman,” New York Times, September 14, 2014. http://tinyurl.com/p6dyzsr
[9] Patrick Cockburn, “Private Donors from Gulf States Helping to Bankroll Salaries of Up to 100,000 Isis Fighters,” Counterpunch, February 23, 2015, http://tinyurl.com/mneedkc

[10] “Libya’s descent into violence – the Guardian briefing,” Guardian, February 16, 2015, http://tinyurl.com/n5u3uut; See also Frederic Wehrey and Wolfram Lacher , “Libya’s Legitimacy Crisis : The Danger of Picking Sides in the Post-Qaddafi Chaos,” Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2014

Thursday, 26 March 2015

YEMEN: JOINT EGYPT SAUDI AND US AIRSTRIKES in YEMEN



SITREP : YEMEM 




EGYPT SEIZES BAB EL MANDEB . SAUDIS BOMB  YEMENI HOUTHIS. US LAUNCHES AIR STRIKES OVER TIKRIT


Background Information on YEMEN: 

THE GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE RED SEA


In a surprise step, EGYPTIAN marine naval and marine forces Thursday morning, March 26, seized control of the strategic BAB EL-MANDEB Straits to foil TEHRAN’S plans to grab this important energy shipping gateway between the RED SEA, the GULF OF ADEN and the SUEZ CANAL, DEBKAfile’s military sources report from the GULF. EGYPT disguised the raid as a counter-piracy operation. It rounded off the SAUDI-led air strikes launched the same morning against IRAN-backed HOUTHI rebels in YEMEN. These operations signaled the start of a major SUNNI ARAB revolt against IRAN’S approaching takeover of YEMEN, through its HOUTHI proxy, and advances in other strategic positions in the MIDDLE EAST, with WASHINGTON’S support.

Thursday morning too, the US launched its first air strikes against ISLAMIC STATE positions in the IRAQI city of TIKRIT, rallying to the aid of the IRANIAN-commanded IRAQI operation, which had failed to dislodge the JIHADIS in two weeks of fighting.
The separate operations in YEMEN and IRAQ attested to the widening breach between the SUNNI Arab camp and the OBAMA administration and the former’s resolve to thwart US strategy for buying a nuclear deal with TEHRAN by empowering IRAN to attain the rank of leading MIDDLE EAST power.

The formal announcements coming from RIYADH and WASHINGTON attempted to gloss over the open breach. The SAUDIS Wednesday indicated that their military buildup on the YEMENI was “purely defensive,” while WASHINGTON subsequently declared support for the SAUDI-GULF-EGYPTIAN air strikes after they began.
According to our WASHINGTON sources, PRESIDENT OBAMA decided Wednesday to accede to the IRAQI premier HAIDER AL-ABADI’S request for air support to de-stall the TIKRIT operation against ISIS. IRAN’S AL QODS BRIGADES chief, Gen. QASSEM SOLEIMANI, who commanded the operation from the start has departed the scene.

Nothing has been said to indicate whether the IRANIAN forces, including Revolutionary Guards officers, remain in the area. It appears that the OBAMA administration prefers as little as possible to be mentioned about US-IRANIAN battlefield coordination in IRAQ versus the ISLAMISTS, especially since it was not exactly a big success. At the same time, US air strikes launched to support ground forces are bound to be coordinated with their commanders, who in this case happen to be mostly IRANIAN. In the last two weeks of the TIKRIT operation, liaison between the US and IRANIAN military in IRAQ was routed through the office of the IRAQI Prime Minister in Baghdad.
Early Thursday, RIYADH reported that the SAUDI Royal Air Force had taken out HOUTHI air defenses, destroyed numerous HOUTHI fighter planes and were imposing a wide no-fly zone over YEMEN.
EGYPT is providing political and military support for SAUDI-GCC operation against HOUTHI fighters in YEMEN, the EGYPTIAN state news agency said Thursday. EGYPT'S Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying this support could involve EGYPTIAN air, naval and ground forces, if necessary.
DEBKAfile’s military sources add: The SAUDIS declared YEMENI AIR SPACE A NO-FLY ZONE to achieve two goals: (1) To deny the YEMENI forces advancing on the key port city of ADEN access to air cover which would undoubtedly have been forthcoming from mutinous elements of the YEMENI air force. Without it, the rebel advance would be severely hobbled, and, (2) to prevent IRANIAN warplanes from landing at YEMENI air bases with deliveries of military equipment and ammunition their HOUTHI proxies.

GULF sources disclose that SAUDI ARABIA has placed 100 warplanes and 150,000 troops with heavy weapons at the disposal of the operation against IRAN’S YEMENI proxy, the ZAYDI HOUTHIS, as well as pressing into service PAKISTANI, MOROCCAN and JORDANIAN military units. This force is a sign that RIYADH intends of following up its air action with a ground invasion across the border into YEMEN to crush the revolt in its backyard.

LIBYA AND THE UNITED NATIONS - Part 1



IS THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SUPPORTING WESTERN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA?


Executive Summary:

  • QATAR AND ITS PROXY WAR WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT IN LIBYA
  • UN SECURITY COUNCIL SUPPORTING WESTERN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN LIBYA
  • EGYPT WIDENING WARS IN NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA
  • WARMONGERING MAINSTREAM MEDIA?
  • GRAB FOR THE CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA BY INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
  • TRIPOLI THE SEAT OF POWER OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ORGANIZATIONS, THE CENTRAL BANK AND NATIONAL OIL COMPANY
  • TRACKING ISIS FINANCIAL BACKERS – NOT REALLY A BIG DEAL FOR BRITAIN AND THE USA – IF ONLY THEY REALLY WISH TO DO SO
  • BOTH SIDES OF THE LIBYAN POLITICAL DIVIDE ARE SUPPORTED BY EXTERNAL FORCES
  • NTC MOVED TO TOBRUK-BAYDA, WHEREAS THE WESTS RECOGNIZED GOVERNMENT IS BASED IN BAYDA
  • P3 OPPOSED CALLS FROM THE AFRICAN UNION AND FROM THE BRICS STATES FOR A FULL EVALUATION OF THE NATO INTERVENTION IN 2011
  • REAPING THE HARVEST OF WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS IN LIBYA


The hysteria over the possible deployment of WESTERN troops to WEST ASIA and NORTH AFRICA is again on the rise. With every passing day there is some new headline about rape, mutilations, beheadings and mass killings by ISIS. For the last nine months the news about these killings came out of SYRIA and IRAQ, but as of late there was the video clip of the beheading of 21 EGYPTIAN workers in LIBYA.

The Pope has called the beheadings, “barbaric assassinations.” Naturally, the world vented and there was righteous outrage all around. What was missing, however, was a sober analysis of what created the conditions for this so-called “Islamic State” to grow in the LEVANT and now to appear in LIBYA.

QATAR AND ITS PROXY WAR WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT IN LIBYA

In light of the beheadings the governments of FRANCE and EGYPT called for urgent discussions in the UN Security Council in order for the UN to lift the arms embargo against LIBYA. From ITALY, WESTERN news sources are calling for an attack on ISIS in LIBYA before it reaches EUROPE. At the same moment while the EGYPTIANS were soliciting political support from EUROPE for its intervention in LIBYA, the government of QATAR, which has been waging a proxy war with SAUDI ARABIA and EGYPT in LIBYA, withdrew its ambassador from EGYPT. Using the news organization AL JAZEERA to bring out its point of view, QATAR’S foreign ministry said DOHA had expressed reservations over the raids, stressing the need for “consultations before any unilateral military action against another member state.” The QATARI government was protesting the bombing of innocent civilians in LIBYA.


EGYPT WIDENING WARS IN NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA


Some diplomats at the UNITED NATIONS claim that the government of EGYPT led by General ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI is seeking the green light from the UNITED NATIONS for more open military intervention in LIBYA. The EGYPTIAN military leadership has been involved on one side of the widening wars in NORTH AFRICA and WEST ASIA for some time, having participated in bombing of some factions in LIBYA last year. The beheadings of 21 EGYPTIAN workers in the town of SIRTE in LIBYA has been the new reason used by General SISI to launch a new wave of air strikes in LIBYA. Yet, although the beheadings had taken place in SIRTE, the aerial bombings took place in DERNIA, the seat of that faction of LIBYAN society that had been manipulated by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) since the wars in AFGHANISTAN in the eighties.

Background Information: DERNA

ISLAMIC STATE HAS ALSO EMERGED IN LIBYA, SPECIFICALLY IN THE CITY OF DERNA


WARMONGERING MAINSTREAM MEDIA?

Although this inconsistency in the actions of the government of EGYPT has been glossed over by the WESTERN mainstream media, these same vehicles of militarism expressed shock at the news of the beheadings of COPTIC CHRISTIANS in LIBYA, and the rise of the so-called ISLAMIC STATE in LIBYA.


Where was this media when there was the ethnic cleansing of TAWERGHA? How did this same media act as cheerleaders for the NATO intervention in 2011? The argument political analysts and observers have, is that the same WESTERN states and their strategic think tanks that drove the wars in IRAQ and the intervention in LIBYA cannot give leadership in the UNITED NATIONS over the questions of peace and reconciliation. ANGOLA, CHINA, MALAYSIA and VENEZUELA will stand condemned in the court of progressive public opinion if these countries in the UN Security Council allow the world to be railroaded into another UN supported deployment of troops to support western military and economic interests in LIBYA.

Creating an international commission that can document the role of NATO, EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR with a view to setting the conditions for an international force to intervene in LIBYA to disarm the militias could be a solution to the problem. Such an international force would exclude members of NATO and the current combatants in LIBYA: QATAR, SUDAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and EGYPT.

GRAB FOR THE CENTRAL BANK OF LIBYA BY INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

A closer examination of the beheadings in SIRTE and focus on the struggles over the CENTRAL BANK in LIBYA and how the NATO governments are maneuvering for their “internationally recognized” government to get their hands on the billions of dollars in reserves in LIBYA.

Background Information: LIBYA AND ITS MONETARY RESERVES

WALL STREET COULD NOT ALLOW TRIPOLI TO BE DEBT-FREE, to continue accumulating international financial possessions, and to be a creditor nation giving international loans and investing funds in other countries, particularly in AFRICA.

In 2008 GOLDMAN SACHS was given us$1.3 billion dollars by the LIBYAN investment authority. (Part 2 - BALKANIZATION of LIBYA)



TRIPOLI THE SEAT OF POWER OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ORGANIZATIONS, THE CENTRAL BANK AND NATIONAL OIL COMPANY

The so-called ISIS in LIBYA have mastered the art of propaganda and have learnt how to use the media to strike fear in the hearts and minds of the citizens of WESTERN EUROPE and NORTH AMERICA, while committing real crimes against humanity in the LEVANT. Military information operation is now such a central part of modern warfare, that those who have trained this JIHADIST front know how to produce slick media products for maximum shock value.


Central Bank Libya
Although the small base of LIBYANS who say that they adhere to ISIS in LIBYA is in the EAST in DERNIA, those who carried out the beheadings of the 21 EGYPTIAN workers choose the city of SIRTE. This was the birthplace of GADDAFI. It was the seat of the idea of the Constitutive Act of the African Union and it is near to the center of the institutions that hold real power in LIBYA: TRIPOLI. At the seat of power are two of the most important organizations for those who want to wield power, the CENTRAL BANK and the NATIONAL OIL COMPANY.



ISIS PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (PSY OPS) PER EXCELLENCE

From all reports, the video of the beheadings had been skillfully produced with one of the beheaders pointing to EUROPE. This heinous media event had its desired effect. EUROPEAN newspapers have now carried stores about how ISIS considers LIBYA as the gateway to EUROPE. One BRITISH newspaper noted, “In ISIS we are observing a level of atrocity towards mankind that, post-Nazism, we hoped we would never again witness.”[1]


Every killing, beheading and rape has become a media event without real alternatives to the WESTERN drumbeat for perpetual war. Last year when the so-called ISIS made their appearance, it appeared that for westerners, ISIS was barbaric only when they killed westerners or those considered to be WESTERN allies in the region. In October 2014, Human Rights Watch reported that “Islamic State militants drove 600 SHIA, CHRISTIAN, and YAZIDI male prisoners into the middle of the desert, lined them up along the edge of a ravine, and executed them at point blank range.” [2]

TRACKING ISIS FINANCIAL BACKERS – NOT REALLY A BIG DEAL FOR BRITAIN AND THE USA – IF ONLY THEY REALLY WISH TO DO SO

BRITAIN and the USA who clearly understand and know the sources of finance, weapons and training for ISIS have joined in condemnation of the atrocities while retreating from exposing the real supporters of ISIS. The governments of BRITAIN, the UNITED STATES, FRANCE, ITALY, KUWAIT and SAUDI ARABIA have the capabilities to track the financial backers of ISIS.

ISIS is following a grand tradition of beheadings and cutting off of hands that had been perfected by repressive governments for centuries. The difference here is that the forces of ISIS were nurtured out of the somewhat reckless actions of WESTERN imperialism in NORTH AFRICA and WEST ASIA over the past twenty years.

Progressive intellectuals and anti-imperial forces have for long been pointing to the fact that the war against the regime of ASSAD in SYRIA by the SAUDIS provided the conditions for the rise of ISIS. Patrick Cockburn has spelt the regional and factional forces that coalesced into the formation that is now called ISIS in the book, ‘The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution’. [3] This knowledge is kept away from WESTERN citizens as the military and political establishments skillfully use the atrocities of ISIS to promote their political agendas.

The BRITISH Foreign Secretary, PHILIP HAMMOND, condemned the murders in LIBYA and said the UK remains fully supportive of the UN’s efforts to build a national unity government for LIBYA. “Such barbaric acts strengthen our determination to work with our partners to counter the expanding terrorist threat to LIBYA and the region. Acts of terrorism should not be allowed to undermine LIBYA’S political transition. We remain fully supportive of the UN’s efforts to build a national unity government for LIBYA and to bring a political solution to the ongoing security crisis. Those who support terrorists can have no part in this process.”

The White House called the killings “despicable and cowardly.” “This wanton killing of innocents is just the most recent of the many vicious acts perpetrated by IS affiliated terrorists against the people of the region, including the murders of dozens of EGYPTIAN soldiers in the SINAI, which only further galvanises the international community to unite against IS,” said spokesman JOSH EARNEST. “This heinous act once again underscores the urgent need for a political resolution to the conflict in LIBYA, the continuation of which only benefits terrorist groups, including IS.” From the White House and from BRITAIN, the world is alerted to the fact that the West is working on “political resolution” to the conflict in LIBYA.

WHO IS THE SO-CALLED LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT IN LIBYA?

When the UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL passed the resolution that gave NATO the green light to intervene in LIBYA in 2011, it gained the support of a small group of opposition forces that called themselves the NATIONAL TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL (NTC). These LIBYANS created a political body with 33 representatives from most LIBYAN regions. The one thing they could agree on was opposition to GADDAFI, but they could not agree on how to develop a political program to reconstruct LIBYA.

After the fall of GADDAFI and the withdrawal of the NATO jets and Special Forces from QATAR, the NTC split into different factions. Those who had access to the weapons gained the upper hand. The UNITED STATES started out as a competitor with FRANCE and BRITAIN, seeking to install a transition process. The late Ambassador CHRISTOPHER STEVENS was one of the foremost articulators of the ‘transition’ plan with the agencies and contractors such as the CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT for International Peace, RAND CORPORATION, the NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE and the STATE DEPARTMENT travelling to LIBYA with consultancies to establish “good governance.” We learnt from the army newssheet ‘Stars and Stripes’ that under this transition plan, the US AFRICA COMMAND was supposed to gain a contract for US $600 million to train 8,000 LIBYAN soldiers.

Background Information: USA AFRICOM

AFRICOM EXPANDS MISSION IN AFRICA


As with all well laid plans, reality intervened. The civilian leaders of the NTC proved incapable of building basic political organizations and those with the guns who had been organized into militias refused to disarm.

BOTH SIDES OF THE LIBYAN POLITICAL DIVIDE ARE SUPPORTED BY EXTERNAL FORCES

At first, the plan was for the CENTRAL BANK to pay-off the more than 200,000 youths in these militias with monthly stipends, but as the elements with guns grasped the political and organizational weakness of those in the transitional parliament, they decided to flex their muscles. When these armed elements started kidnapping and killing the officials of the NTC, many of whom ran away to CAIRO, MALTA, DUBAI or to GENEVA, depending on their financial strength, the infighting between the militias and the bureaucrats consumed many of the NGO workers who had joined in the rebellion such as SALWA BUGAIGHIS.

Background Information:

ISLAM – A CONVENIENT TOOL FOR AMERICA’S GEO -STRATEGIC POLICIES


Small GULF entities such as the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and QATAR took sides in the internecine battles providing weapons and logistics as the armed elements sidelined the politicians who had been anointed by the WEST to succeed in LIBYA. [4] Frederic Wehrey, writing for Foreign Affairs magazine last year, noted that both sides of the LIBYAN political divide are supported by external forces:
“EGYPT and the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE) have backed DIGNITY, while QATAR, SUDAN, and TURKEY are purported to be backing DAWN.

Background Information:  DAWN AND DIGNITY

DIGNITY FRONT VERSUS DAWN FRONT 


NTC MOVED TO TOBRUK-BAYDA, WHEREAS THE WESTS RECOGNIZED GOVERNMENT IS BASED IN BAYDA

Contrary to some commentary, both sides have used force against civilians and elected institutions, and both show little sign of compromise. Despite WESTERN diplomatic and political support, and with the military support of EGYPT and the UAE, the rump of the NTC could not organize to defend themselves and gradually left TRIPOLI, settling to set up its Parliament in the far EAST in the area around TOBRUK-BAYDA. The seat of the WESTERN recognized government is supposed to be BAYDA.”


What is becoming evident is that the fighting in LIBYA is being supported by the staunchest allies of the UNITED STATES, BRITAIN, FRANCE and ITALY. These countries have pushed the UNITED NATIONS to pass a resolution to buy time for the factions of the LIBYAN political class that has been pushed out of TRIPOLI. This section of the LIBYAN political class is organized around the COUNCIL OF REPRESENTATIVES (COR). The State Department in their document on transition stated that, “The UNITED STATES government, the European Union, and several MIDDLE EASTERN governments have stated their view that the COR and the interim government led by AL THINNI are the legitimate governing bodies in the country.”

P3 OPPOSED CALLS FROM THE AFRICAN UNION AND FROM THE BRICS STATES FOR A FULL EVALUATION OF THE NATO INTERVENTION IN 2011

RUSSIA'S REVENGE FOR LIBYA

As mentioned numerous times, RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN in 2011.

CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed, namely tap the oil reserves of LIBYA.

Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further.

Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in June 2012 and included into this analysis

UNLIKE IN LIBYA, RUSSIA AND CHINA THIS TIME AROUND WILL NOT TOLERATE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE SYRIAN EQUATION AND ENERGY GAME

ENERGY DEALS RUSSIA AND CHINA INKED WITH MUAMMAR QADDAFI PRIOR TO THE MILITARY INTERVENTION

According to some analysts this instability could also be triggered deliberately by certain foreign entities who invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil and fossil extraction prior to the military intervention in LIBYA. When coalition forces decided to intervene in LIBYA they did not consider the consequences such intervention would have on the geopolitical landscape.

With the aim to gain control over Libya’s oil reserves WESTERN coalition forces thought they could outwit CHINA and RUSSIA who also invested heavily in LIBYA’S lucrative oil industry. Lured into voting in favor of the UN resolution which in the end paved the way for Military Intervention in LIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA expected to receive their fair slice of the “energy cake” once the intervention was concluded, instead they were left out of the equation, losing millions of dollars of investments in LIBYA, for all energy deals RUSSIA and CHINA inked with Muammar Qaddafi prior to the military intervention suddenly became void, leaving the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN the sole benefiters of the entire operation.

Read also:

Note from the Editor: Above paragraph was written by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring in October 2013 and included into this analysis


With their diplomatic muscle in the Security Council of the UNITED NATIONS, NATO members, especially the P3 (BRITAIN, FRANCE and the UNITED STATES) have opposed calls from the AFRICAN UNION and from the BRICS states for a full evaluation of the NATO intervention in 2011. Instead, the P3 pushed for the naming of a SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE TO LIBYA. The Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, BERNARDINO LEÓN, was handed the task of giving meaning to the transition plans that had been hatched by WESTERN think tanks. LEON’S mandate was “to help establish a ceasefire, facilitate political dialogue and support the work of the House of Representatives and LIBYAN Government in establishing an inclusive political framework as part of the democratic transition.”

REAPING THE HARVEST OF WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS IN LIBYA

Throughout the years of imperial opposition to MUAMAR GADDAFI, the WESTERN intelligence agencies cultivated the ISLAMISTS in LIBYA because political opposition to GADDAFI had taken religious forms. The WEST invested heavily in the EASTERN part of LIBYA and cities such as BENGHAZI and DERNIA built networks of fighters who were interspersed with WESTERN military forces in AFGHANISTAN and other sites of destabilization. More than eight years ago, a West Point study drew attention to the fact that the corridor which goes from BENGHAZI to TOBRUK, passing through the city of DARNAH (also called DERNIA) represented one of the greatest concentrations of jihadi terrorists to be found anywhere in the world.

It was from the East where the rebellion was stoked and after the fall of GADDAFI, it was from this same region where the CIA recruited JIHADISTS to fight against the ASSAD regime in SYRIA. However, these JIHADISTS could not be controlled and when they fell out, the world found out about the den of JIHADISTS in the EAST when the US Ambassador to LIBYA was consumed in the struggles between competing militias at a CIA facility in BENGHAZI in 2012. 


There is a long list of individuals that in the past worked with WESTERN intelligence operations and are now labelled as terrorists. AHMED ABU KHATTALA and ABU ANAS AL-LIBI are two such individuals who have been involved in the shadowy networks of JIHADISTs and western intelligence organizations. When AHMED ABU KHATTALA was picked up in LIBYA by Western military forces, the New York Times ran the story: “Brazen Figure May Hold Key to Mysteries: AHMED ABU KHATTALA Capture May Shed Light on BENGHAZI Attack.”[5]

In 2013, ABU ANAS AL-LIBI was captured on the streets of TRIPOLI by US Delta Force and AL-LIBI was quickly flown out of LIBYA. He was then extradited to NEW YORK to stand trial for helping to mastermind the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombing in NAIROBI, KENYA. ABDUL-HAMED AL-RUQUAI is another name for ABU ANAS AL-LIBI. His career as an operative with long connections to BRITISH and US intelligence services was about to be exposed in the trial which was supposed to start in January 2015. Then before his trial on terrorism charges was set to begin in MANHATTAN federal court, ANAS AL-LIBI died in custody.


This was a most convenient death because in his untimely death, the world will never know why the BRITISH government had released AL LIBI when BRITAIN knew full well the ties between the AL QUEDA forces and the extremists from LIBYA who wanted to fight GADDAFI. [6]

Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the  original article written by Horace G. Campbell