With
cheap gasoline at the pump, and increased interest rates, you’d think we were
just recovering from a bad financial hang-over, but something much more
sinister is at place. Don’t worry though, there is a happy ending. A revolution is happening
before our eyes.
Oversupply
is not the reason that oil is dropping in price faster that Exxon Corporation
can say “uh-oh.” Canadian oil is dropping even lower, in some cases to $8 a barrel. Russia
is not suffering from these falling oil prices, either, as the mainstream press
would convey. Similarly, despite the recent Fed hike in the US interest rate,
which is the first in more than a decade, this does not herald an economic
turning point, at least not for the debt-slavery system that
is currently in place, but that is crumbling. The magic-money system of debt
and quantitative easing based on the petro-dollar is on its knees. This was
an act of desperation.
Falling oil prices are
not driving Moscow to expand its austerity program in an attempt to balance an
expected deficit of $38.6 billion in 2016. You can be sure President Vladimir Putin was
at least three chess moves ahead of
tumbling oil prices. Marek Dabrowski, co-founder of the Center for Social and
Economic Research in Warsaw and a professor at Moscow’s Higher School of
Economics, recently ran the numbers on
the oil-exporting economies and discovered a paradox. Russia is not even close
to being the most oil-dependent of
these countries.
It gets
even more interesting though. China has announced that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
is up and running as promised late last year. Members of the bank include
China, Russia, Denmark, Egypt, Iran, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, Sri
Lanka, the Philippines, Kuwait, and others – noticeably absent is
the United States of America.
Add to
the picture – commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a
halt. For the first time in known history, few cargo ships are in-transit in
the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are
either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving, reports ZeroHedge. Some claim that shipping companies are demanding to be paid in
Chinese yuan, and this is why no goods are moving.
§Former
Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts claimed the Federal Reserve
doesn’t have any more gold. That’s why they could only give Germany 5 tons
of the 1,500 tons it’s holding. In fact, when Germany asked for this
delivery, the Fed said no.
§As Matt Taibi wrote
for Rolling Stone last year in an article titled, “Everything is Rigged,
Continued: European Commission Raids Oil Companies in Price Fixing
Probe,”: “the European Commission regulators yesterday raided the offices of oil
companies in London, the Netherlands and Norway as part of an
investigation into possible price-rigging in the oil markets. The targeted
companies include BP, Shell and the Norwegian company Statoil. The Guardian explains that
officials believe that oil companies colluded to manipulate pricing data.”
To many,
it is old news that the US Corporate government is bankrupt. The new news
is how they are being taken down systematically by
the ‘white hats’ and other benevolent interests within our world organizations
that are tired of being pushed around by criminals using the petro-dollar, and
fiat money.
These
signs tell of a larger picture.
Secret bank bailouts are
soon to be a thing of the past. So
are bank bail-ins.
Industry corruption such as the Fifa ‘bribe’ which was funneled via HSBC in Hong
Kong came from a US bank fined for a link to Colombian drug
cartel will continue to be exposed, and huge fines will be paid. In other
cases, bankers representing the cabal will be fired or put in jail.
At the
end of 2015, the CEO of Brazil’s largest investment bank was arrested. This
was accompanied by huge layoffs at
major banks across the US. Regions bank has announced 260 layoffs for 2016.
Bank of America, Citibank and other cabal-fronts will also lay off thousands of
people this year. As part of a crackdown on corruption, China has also
uncovered the largest “underground bank”
in the country. Over 370 individuals involved in the scheme have been
arrested, according to the People’s Daily, for handling 400 billion
yuan ($64 billion) in illegal foreign-exchange transactions. It seems the
crime syndicate had tentacles everywhere. Though slow, the preliminary schedule
for mass arrests and for the re-chartering of the world’s
fraudulent banking system is underway.
With cyber warfare becoming
part of leaked news daily, the strategic moves of Putin, and the new banking
institutions coming into the fore, we may finally see the end of Cabal rule.
The war has been waged through
mainstream propaganda outlets, TV advertisements and even children’s games.
We’ve heard cash is dirtied by
drug dealing, tarnished by terrorism, tainted by tax evasion (heaven forbid!)
and just plain dirty. Not to mention so outdated.
Just recently NORWAY has jumped
aboard the cashless society agenda with DNB, the country’s largest bank,
calling for a total end to cash. The story only sounds shocking only to people
who haven’t heard the similar stories from SWEDEN or DENMARK or India or Israel
or any of the dozens of other countries whose banksters and
(bankster-controlled) governments have openly lusted after a world of
completely trackable, completely bank-controlled transactions.
But all of these stories,
reported piecemeal here and there over the years, don’t give the full story
about how this “war on cash” is being waged on every continent and in every
country by the same banksters that stand to benefit from a cashless world.
Let’s fix that by compiling a list of examples from around the world of how
cash payments are being regulated, restricted and phased out. The list below
will be updated as new stories come in.
THE CASHLESS SOCIETY LIST
ARGENTINA – ARGENTINA’S currency crisis has been known for some
time. In short, ARGENTINIANS don’t trust the peso and are willing to pay
premium for any currency they perceive as “more stable,” especially US dollars
which are traded on the black market as “blue dollars” at prices far exceeding
the official exchange rate. That’s why ARGENTINA has been tipped for some time
as a country that is likely to go cashless sooner than later, with a 2014
report from the Bitcoin Market Opportunity Index ranking ARGENTINA as the most
likely jurisdiction to replace sovereign currency with bitcoin. ARGENTINIANS
have reason to be wary about this New Monetary Order, however; in a move
described as “an eerie glimpse of what a cashless society enables” the ARGENTINIAN
government mandated that banks report every credit card purchase made in the
country directly to the tax authorities and added a 15 percent tax surcharge
every time a purchase is made outside the country using a credit card issued by
an ARGENTINE bank.
AUSTRALIA – Late last year the Westpac banking group issued a “Cash
Free Report” touting the highly self-serving finding that “Over half (53 per
cent) of payments currently made in AUSTRALIA are cashless” (using Westpac
online banking services like their card-less ATMs, no doubt). The report goes
on to predict that AUSTRALIA will be cash free by 2022. Meanwhile, the
government is readying a cashless welfare system that will allow the government
to control what the money is spent on. What could possibly go wrong?
BELGIUM– In 2014 the BELGIAN government passed new restrictions on
cash payments: cash can no longer be used to pay for real estate, and there is
a 3000 euro limit on cash payments for other assets (unless purchase second
hand).
CANADA– In 2007 the CANADIAN government stopped allowing payment
of taxes in cash at government service centers. In 2010 Passport CANADA
followed suit. In 2011 56% of Canadians polled said they were happy to live in
a bankster-controlled cashless society so the country killed the penny in 2012
and the Royal CANADIAN Mint started pimping the “MintChip” as a new form of
electronic payment that will be “better than cash.” The Mint ended the program
in 2014 but the Great White North is still on track to be a cashless society in
the coming years.
CHINA– The People’s Bank of CHINA, citing the need to “reduce
costs, curb crimes and money laundry, facilitate transactions and boost central
bank’s control on money supply and circulation” set up a research team in 2014
“to study application scenarios for digital currency and strive for an early roll out.”
DENMARK – In the 1990s about 80% of DANISH retail purchases were
made with cash, but these days it’s more like 25%. But if the DANISH government
has its way, that number will be 0% by 2030. That’s the year the DANISH
government has set for the complete elimination of paper money in DENMARK.
ECUADOR – Last year ECUADOR became the first government to launch a
digital currency completely administered and controlled by a central bank.
Called the Dinero Electronico, the currency can be purchased with cash, stored
in electronic wallets on a phone, and can be exchanged by text message.
EU– The head of the EU Anti-Fraud Office Giovanni Kessler, came
out earlier this year to call for abolishing the 500 euro note because they
“can make the life of fraudsters much easier.” He also noted that a more
widespread adoption of electronic payment systems would be better for his
office because “Traceability is paramount in fighting corruption and fraud.”
FRANCE – In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attacks last year, the FRENCH
government stepped up its war on cash. In March of last year, FRENCH Finance
Minister Michel Sapin declared it necessary to “fight against the use of cash
and anonymity in the FRENCH economy” in order to combat “low-cost terrorism.”
As of September 2015 it is illegal for FRENCH citizens to make purchases
exceeding 1000 euros in cash.
GERMANY – In a rather abrupt turnaround from a 2014 Bundesbank
paper on “The Irreplaceability of Cash,” the GERMAN Finance Ministry (perhaps
egged on by the country’s leading Keynesian economist) is looking into a 5000
euro cap on all cash payments. And although GERMANY is still a cash-based
society, things are changing; a 2014 survey found that 34% of the population
makes purchases electronically already and 20% can envision making all their
purchases via smartphone payment systems in the future.
HONG KONG – When it launched in 1997, the HONG KONG Mass Transit
Railway’s Octopus Card was just the second contactless smart card system in the
world (after SOUTH KOREA’S UPass). Although originally used to pay for journeys
on public transit, it can now be used at convenience stores, vending machines,
supermarkets, photo booths and other retail outlets. In 2004 all metered
parking spaces in HONG KONG were converted to cashless meters that required
Octopus Cards for payment.
INDIA – INDIA is one of the most cash-dependent economies in the
world with a cash-to-GDP ratio of 12%, almost four times that of fellow BRICS
nations BRAZIL and SOUTH AFRICA. But it
won’t be for long if the INDIAN government has its way. Last June the INDIAN
Ministry of Finance posted a draft proposal to its website for facilitating the
rise of cashless payments in the country. In his 2015 budget speech the Finance
Minister declared: “One way to curb the flow of black money is to discourage
transactions in cash. Now that a majority of Indians has or can have, a RUPAY
debit card. I therefore, proposes to introduce soon several measure that will
incentivize credit or debit card transactions and disincentives cash
transaction.”
IRELAND – A 2013 paper from the Central Bank of IRELAND lamented IRELAND’S
slow adoption of electronic payments and over-reliance on cheques, noting “IRELAND
could save up to €1bn per year by migrating to more efficient [i.e. electronic]
payment instruments.” Later that year, the Central Bank launched a National
Payments plan to help facilitate the transition and kicked off a €1m national
marketing campaign to encourage the migration to electronic payments. The scale
of the campaign surprised many, with the Irish Independent pointing out that
“It’s a major advertising spend in the current climate, where a big-promotion
budget spend is considered to be in the region of €500,000 outside of the big
global blue-chips.” Late last year the Cork City Centre Forum attempted to take
the lead in the cashless transition by launching the “Cork Cash Out” campaign
aiming “to encourage consumers to ween off cash and opt-in for electronic-only
transactions instead.”
ISRAEL – In 2014 a special committee headed by ISRAELI Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Chief of Staff Harel Locker released a report
examining how to reduce the use of cash in the country. The report advocates
reforms (including restrictions and limits on cash transactions) as part of a
strategy whose aim is “reduced use of cash, reduced use of endorsed checks, and
increased use of electronic means of payment.”
ITALY – In 2011 newly appointed ITALIAN Prime Minister Mario Monti
made cash payments over 1000 euro illegal. “What we need is a revolution in ITALIANS’
thinking” Monti told reporters as he announced the emergency decree which was
put into law before it was even formally voted on in parliament.
KENYA– Last year the KENYAN government awarded a contract to
MasterCard to administer a smart card that can be used to pay for government
services and receive welfare payments. Anne Waiguru of the Ministry of
Devolution and Planning explained: “Uwezo Fund beneficiaries, Youth and Women
Funds disbursements, National Youth Service, Social welfare government cash
transfers to families, government food subsidies, hunger safety net cash transfers
and cash transfers to orphaned children will be disbursed through the cards,”
neglecting to add that the card also gives MasterCard access to the biometric
details of 170 million potential customers.
MEXICO – In 2013 the MEXICAN government banned cash payments of
more than 500,000 pesos for real estate and more than 200,000 pesos for cars,
jewelry or lottery tickets.
NETHERLANDS – In 2013 the mayors of Almere, Rotterdam and
Maastricht engaged in a publicity stunt to promote a campaign encouraging the public
to abandon cash. They spent a week without spending any cash, relying solely on
debit cards for purchases. The campaign is part of a long term trend away from
cash and toward debit payments in many supermarkets and other businesses around
the country.
NORWAY – Late last week Trond Bentestuen, a senior executive at NORWAY’S
largest bank, complained to the VG Newspaper that the NORWEGIAN central bank
“can only account for 40 percent” of the NORWEGIAN kroner in circulation,
meaning “that 60 percent of money usage is outside of any control.” There’s
only one conclusion, according to Bentestuen: “There are so many dangers and
disadvantages associated with cash, we have concluded that it should be phased
out.” Don’t worry, though, the nation’s Finance Ministry says it has “no plans
to change the law in this area”…for now.
PHILIPPINES– In the PHILIPPINES, the government has launched an
“E-Peso” project with the explicit aim of “transforming communities into
cashless societies.” Touted as “a digital/virtual currency based on the PHILIPPINE
Peso” its main selling point (according to the E-Peso’s own website) is that:
“Since E-Peso transactions are completely digital, everything will
automatically be recorded onto the customer’s account activity log.” The
initiative is funded by infamous CIA front USAID, which “has awarded a
US$25-million, five-year project to a company called Chemonics to support the PHILIPPINE
government in the promotion and adoption of e-payments in the PHILIPPINES.”
SAUDI ARABIA – A MasterCard report on “The Cashless Journey” noted
that by increasing the share of debit card transactions in the economy between
2006 and 2011, SAUDI ARABIA was moving at a faster than average pace toward a
cashless society. Commenting on the report, Khalid Hariry of MasterCard noted:
“SAUDI ARABIA is indeed moving at a better than average pace on its cashless
journey, which has been significantly spurred along by government leadership.
Regulation mandating wages assignment of employees’ to bank accounts has vastly
increased access to electronic payment methods for the SAUDI population over a
short period of time. These changes, coming alongside initiatives to spur
acceptance, and a push to migrate payments made during the Hajj and Umrah
pilgrimages, can be expected to shift substantial share of consumer payments
away from cash in the coming years.”
SPAIN– Citing budgetary austerity and the need to clamp down on
tax fraud the SPANISH government banned cash payments of more than 2,500 euros
in 2012.
SWEDEN – Last year Stockholm’s KTH Royal Institute of Technology
released a report stating that the country is on track to completely
eliminating cash transactions in the foreseeable future. Noting that there are
now only 80 billion Swedish crowns in circulation in the economy (down from 106
just six years ago), the report highlights how digital person-to-person payment
technology “Swish” (developed in collaboration with DANISH banks) is already
transforming the country’s banking sector, where there are now entire banks
that do not accept cash. Meanwhile, the SWEDISH public is being urged to stop
using cash by no less a cultural icon than ABBA’s Björn Ulveaus, who brags that
the ABBA museum is now a cashless institution.
URUGUAY – Under the “Financial Inclusion Law” which took effect in
May 2015 the URUGUAYAN government has banned all cash payments over $5,000,
thus requiring all property and vehicle purchases to go through the banking
system. This is part of a wave of such legislation throughout LATIN AMERICA hailed
as a way of “giving the people what they need” (i.e. access to banking) even
when (as the very same report notes) “those on the edges of the financial
system are distrustful of banks” especially in URUGUAY.
UK – In 2014 cashless payments surpassed cash payments for the
first time in the UK, with research (from cashless payment provider Kalixo Pro)
suggesting that the average BRIT only carries £17.79 in cash at any time and 1
in 4 will walk away if a business doesn’t accept card payment. London buses
went cashless in 2014 and just last year the Bank of England’s chief economist
made the case for negative interest rates and abolishing cash.
Currently
ISLAM is experiencing what CHRISTIANS experienced in 1529 when the tug of war
raged between ROMAN CATHOLICS and LUTHERAN PROTESTANTS
By SHAHID JAVED BURKI via Project Syndicate
Turmoil has seized much of the MUSLIM
world. In SYRIA, a brutal war has already taken 250,000 lives, displaced half
of the country’s 21 million people, and sent a million refugees to EUROPE
seeking asylum. In YEMEN, the HOUTHI tribe has risen up against the government,
and are now facing SAUDI-led airstrikes. Conflicts like these reflect a number
of factors, the most prominent of which are the conflicts between ISLAM’S two
sects, SUNNI and SHIA, and between fundamentalists and reformists.
Alewite Falg
SYRIAN President BASHAR
AL-ASSAD’S ALAWITEregime enjoys the support of SHIA
powers, especially IRAN, whose regional influence depends on a SHIA regime
remaining in power. And that is precisely why SUNNI powers – most prominently SAUDI
ARABIA – are committed to toppling that regime. YEMEN’S government, by
contrast, is SUNNI-led, and thus has SAUDI ARABIA’S support, hence the bombings
of the IRAN-backed SHIA HOUTHIS. Unsurprisingly, tensions between IRAN and SAUDI
ARABIA have intensified lately, a trend that culminated in the severing of
diplomatic relations over SAUDI ARABIA’S execution of a popular SHIA cleric.
The chaos fueled by these
conflicts – and by instability in other countries in the region, such as AFGHANISTAN
and IRAQ –has enabled the rise of some truly contemptible forces, beginning
with the Islamic State (ISIS). That group has gained so much influence that US
generals have asked President BARACK OBAMA to authorize additional troops to
join the fight against it. Moreover, there are reports that the UNITED STATES may
postpone the withdrawal of its troops from AFGHANISTAN, where an increasingly
brutal war against the government has enabled the TALIBAN to gain territory and
created an opening for ISIS to become active. ISIS has also penetrated PAKISTAN.
The religious element of the
conflicts raging in the Middle East today is a major reason why they have been
so difficult to defuse. The SUNNI-SHIA schismgoes back to the year 632, when
the Prophet MUHAMMAD died without indicating how the fast-growing ISLAMIC
community should pick his successor. Those who became the SHIA believed that
the position should remain in the prophet’s immediate family and supported the
selection of ALI IBN ABI TALIB, the prophet’s cousin and son-in-law. Those who
became the SUNNI supported the choice of the community’s senior members: ABU
BAKR, who had served as a close adviser to MUHAMMAD.
Today, most of the world’s 1.6
billion MUSLIMS are SUNNIS. They are widely dispersed, spread over a vast swath
stretching from MOROCCO to INDONESIA. After decades of migration to EUROPE and NORTH
AMERICA, there are also strong SUNNI communities in several WESTERN countries.
THE
SUNNI-SHIA CRESCENT
The SHIA number 225 million and
are geographically much more concentrated. IRAN, with 83 million, is the
world’s largest SHIA-majority country, followed by PAKISTAN with 30 million and
INDIA with 25 million. The “SHIA crescent” – including IRAN and its immediate
neighbors AFGHANISTAN, AZERBAIJAN, IRAQ, PAKISTAN, and TURKEY – accounts for
70% of the sect’s total population.
A fresco painting from the Chehel Sotun Pavillion in Isfahan, Iran, depicts Persian warfare during the Safavid dynasty period.
This geographic distribution is
the result of a series of historical accidents, a combination of conquests and
(often forced) conversions. Though ISLAM arrived in IRAN by way of conquest in
637-651, the country did not officially adopt SHI’ISM for nearly another
millennium, with SHAH ISMAIL I of the SAFAVID dynasty undertaking in 1501 the
forcible conversion of the country’s SUNNI population.
SHI’ISM spread through SOUTH ASIA
as a result of repeated military incursions by PERSIA’S rulers into AFGHANISTAN
and INDIA. Today, that region’s SHIA population is concentrated in urban areas,
and largely comprises the descendants of the soldiers and other state
functionaries who stayed behind in the conquered territories.
SUNNI ISLAM, for its part, was
first spread through SOUTH ASIA by the SUFI saints, most of whom came from CENTRAL
ASIA and preached a more tolerant and inclusive form of ISLAM than that of the ARABIAN
PENINSULA. But the rising influence of SAUDI ARABIA after the 1970s, when
skyrocketing oil prices boosted the country’s wealth considerably, helped to
spur the spread of the Kingdom’s dominant and austere WAHHABI sect.
Beyond attracting millions of MUSLIM
workers from SOUTH ASIA, SAUDI ARABIA financed the establishment of WAHABBI
madrassas along the AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN border. The TALIBAN (which, in ARABIC,
means “students”) in both AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN are the products of these
seminaries, as are militias like LASHKAR-E-TAIBA and LASHKAR-E-JHANGVI, which
have mounted attacks on religious sites in INDIA.
TODAY’S
TURMOIL REFLECTS A CLASH OF WORLDVIEWS THAT IS BOTH THEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL.
Conservative SUNNIS, such as
those who adhere to fundamentalist WAHHABISM, favor theocratic authoritarian
rule, whereas more moderate SUFI SUNNIS would prefer liberal and inclusive
political systems. The same is true of the SHIA. IRAN has long stuck to
theocratic rule, but now seems to be looking toward reform. Whether the
sectarian divide can ever be bridged most likely depends on whether reformists
can gain sufficient influence in both camps. If not, the conflict will continue
to rage, accelerating the breakdown of regional order we now see.
The new international openings
towards IRAN introduce a possibility of economic cooperation between ANKARA and
TEHRAN, two regional powers so far divided
The lifting of sanctions against IRAN
by the UNITED STATES and EUROPE could introduce a new commercial and political
balance in the MIDDLE EAST, namely in SYRIA.
When it comes to the resolution
of the SYRIAN conflict, TURKEY and IRAN, historical rivals in the region, are
on opposite positions. While ANKARA has worked for some time on overthrowing SYRIAN
president BASHAR AL ASSAD, TEHRAN, in line with RUSSIA, moves in the opposite
direction.
TURKEY, moreover, is in
disagreement with the UNITED STATES because of WASHINGTON'S collaboration with
the KURDISHDemocratic Party (PYD) in the
fight against ISIL, but is also part of the anti-ISLAMIC State (ISIL)
coalition. Since July, it allowed WASHINGTON to use the INCIRLIK military air
base for its air strikes against ISIL.
(If TURKEY is really part of the
anti ISIL coalition is debatable, for TURKEY clearly seems to have a double edged sword policyon this issue.)
While tensions with MOSCOW have
risen, after TURKISH aviation shot down a RUSSIAN military jet on 24 November,
in the recent confrontation between Iran and SAUDI ARABIA after the execution
in RIYADH of SHIA SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR, TURKEY tried to maintain a position of
balance between the two ISLAMIC powers.
Tension between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN
has the potential to deepen the problems already existing in the region. It is
therefore important to act sensibly and leave the doors to diplomacy open. The
region does not need new conflict, but agreement and collaboration. TURKEY is
ready to take any action to overcome problems between the two countries, TURKEYS
foreign minister emphasized in a recent public address.
ANKARA,
A SYRIA HOSTAGE?
Since the beginning of the civil
war in SYRIA, the policy of the TURKISH government has been to favor the SUNNI
MUSLIM side. Turkey supported a government with a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD majority.
When this failed, an unspoken alliance was established with SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR.
TURKISH MIDDLE EASTERNpolicy has been taken hostage by SYRIA.
Consequently TURKEY has befriended countries whose policies agree with those of
ANKARA in SYRIA, and made enemies of all the others.
Now, many think that ANKARA'S alliance
with RIYADH, just when IRAN is entering a new economic and political phase,
could drag TURKEY into a dangerous situation, affected by religious
sectarianism.
in January 2015, has led to a new
configuration of the SUNNI power in the MIDDLE EAST. TURKISH President, RECEP
TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, visited King SALMAN BIN ABDUL-AZIZ AL SAUD three times in one
year, giving his support to the SAUDI military campaign in YEMEN. At the end of
December both countries, considering "the critical period the region was
crossing" and their "brotherhood, friendship and strategic
partnership", have agreed the formation of a "superior council for
strategic cooperation".
An agreement which held major
significance when ERDOĞAN, returning from RIYADH, said that TURKEY and ISRAEL,
an historic enemy of IRAN, "need" each other.
This announcement came after a
much discussed preliminary agreement was reached in mid-December to renew
diplomatic ties between the two countries, interrupted in 2010 after the
military intervention by ISRAELI military on the TURKISH ship MAVI MARMARA.
If ERDOĞAN'S approaching of King SALMAN
was aimed at increasing cooperation in solving regional issues, then the SAUDI-IRANIAN
crisis has complicated TURKEY'S regional plans, especially those in SYRIA.
Trio Infernale
The military efforts of RIYADH to
put pressure on TEHRAN don't seem to have produced the desired effect. Nor did
the attempt to diplomatically isolate IRAN, in the wake of the attacks and
protests made against SAUDI representatives after SHEIKH NIMR AL-NIMR was
condemned to death. "The results achieved by the SAUDIS in urging their
allies to break diplomatic ties with IRAN are a long way from damaging TEHRAN",
says FEHIM TAŞTEKIN, a MIDDLE EAST expert journalist at RADIKAL daily.
"Only BAHRAIN, SUDAN, SOMALIA and DJIBOUTI broke ties with IRAN. TURKEY only
recalled the IRANIAN ambassador to ANKARA as a warning.”
In this context WASHINGTON'S
position is fundamental. According to TAŞTEKIN, "The UNITED STATES found
that cooperating with IRAN in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN was useful and they were
forced to include TEHRAN in the talks in GENEVA and VIENNA, in order to
overcome the deadlock in SYRIA.”
THE
TURKEY - IRAN RELATIONS
Despite being difficult,
relations between ANKARA and TEHRAN should necessarily remain of mutual
understanding, for the sake of economic and commercial interest above all.
Iran is the second country after
RUSSIA from which TURKEY buys natural gas, which covers almost 20 percent of
its energy consumption. After the crisis with RUSSIA, TURKEY is exploring new
alternative suppliers, even though interruption of supply of natural gas from RUSSIA
(64 percent of ANKARA'S requirement) does not seem imminent.
The most optimistic forecast
believes that the positive effect of lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy
will as also be felt in TURKEY. The volume of trade and the amount of oil
bought by ANKARA is expected to rise. In the past, about half its requirements
came from IRAN; under the sanctions, the oil import from IRAN went down to
about 31 percent.
The new opening to IRAN could
have positive effects on the building industry, which has been in serious
difficulties for some years in the MIDDLE EAST. The slowdown in the sector in LIBYA,
IRAQ and RUSSIA would encourage entrepreneurs to look for IRANIAN projects.
According to the local press the
first contacts have already been made four months ago. "TURKEY has been
close to IRAN during the period of the sanctions with about 200 companies
investing in various sectors', says BILGIN AYGÜL, chairman of the TURKISH-IRANIAN
Labour Council. He foresees a turnover between the two countries to reach $30
billion within a few years.
Could an increase in IRAN'S
influence become a disadvantage for TURKEY? According to AHMET KASIM HAN, of
the Research centre for economy and foreign policy (EDAM), it depends on the
decisions ANKARA will make.
Han believes that TURKEY could
become important to TEHRAN for delivering natural gas towards EUROPE, and adds
that "there is no doubt IRAN will be more self-confident in the region. In
SYRIA as in YEMEN, however, rivalry between TURKEY and IRAN will be inevitable,
although it will be in most likelihood a 'controllable tension' unless they
decide to stay only on one side. Maintaining their position in SYRIA, taking a
position against IRAN in IRAQ, openly supporting SAUDI ARABIA... It will all
depend on which decisions are made.
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis
and Monitoring (GAM) from the article originally written by Fazıla Mat via Balcanicaucaso.org
