ARGENTINA, AT THE EDGE OF AN ABYSS

ARGENTINA HAS NOT LEARNT FROM HISTORY

In December 2015 vassal “managers” seized power in ARGENTINA where millionaire MAURICIO MACRI ruled by decree, by-passing constitutional legality. MACRI fired scores of thousands of public service workers, closed social agencies and appointed judges and prosecutors without Congressional vote. He arbitrarily arrested social movement leaders - violating democratic procedures.

MACRI’S Economic and Finance Ministers gained millions of dollars by ‘buying into’ multinational oil companies just prior to handing over private options on public enterprises. (Now ARGENTINA is importing gas from “SHELL” at higher rates then when it used to buy from BOLIVIA!)

CURRENT ADMINISTRATIONS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IS DISASTROUS

The all-encompassing swindles and fraud carried out by the ‘new managers’ were covered up by the US media, who praised MACRI’S professional team.

Moreover, MACRI’S economic performance was a disaster. Exorbitant user fees on utilities and transport for consumers and business enterprises, increased three to ten-fold, forcing bankruptcy rates to soar and households to suffer light and gas closures.

Wall Street vulture funds received seven billion dollar payment from MACRI’S managers, for defaulted loans purchased for pennies over a dollar, twenty-fold greater than the original lenders.

Data based on standard economic indicators, highlights the worst economic performance in a decade and a half.

Price inflation exceeds 40%; public debt increased by twenty percent in six months.

Living standards and employment sharply declined. Growth and investment data was negative. Mismanagement, official corruption and arbitrary governance, did not induce confidence among local small and medium size businesses.

CALCULATED MOVE BY THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: BANKERS TURNED INTO CABINET MINISTERS

The “respectable media”, led by the NEW YORK TIMES, the FINANCIAL TIMES, the WALL STREET JOURNAL, WASHINGTON POST, as well as ARGENTINE newspapers such as CLARIN and LA NACION falsified every aspect of MACRI’S regime. The current regime, together with the CLARIN conglomerate are currently conducting large scale “Social Engineering” in ARGENTINA.

Failed economic policies implemented by bankers turned cabinet ministers were dubbed long-term successes; crude ideologically driven policies promoting foreign investor profiteering were re-invented as business incentives.

Political thugs dismantled and replaced civil service agencies were labelled ‘a new management team’ by the vulgar propaganda scribes of the financial press.

MAURICIO MACRI AND THE CLARIN MEDIA GROUP

Since 2003 the media giant CLARIN GROUP and LA NACION have been supporting MACRI and thus are the main and powerful “invisible opposition”which oppose the current government. Misinformation, lack of objectivity etc.both in CLARIN GROUPS TV News Channels as well as print media are daily occurrence in ARGENTINA. Mainstream Media are facing “credibility issues”around the globe and are engaged in an Information war, but in ARGENTINA the Info war has reached staggering proportions and thus cannot be seen as an impartial entity.

Definition of “Social Engineering” in ARGENTINA

 Social engineering is a discipline in social science that refers to efforts to influence particular attitudes and social behaviors on a large scale, whether by governments, media such as the CLARIN conglomerate or private groups in order to produce desired characteristics in a target population.

Social engineering can also be understood philosophically as a deterministic phenomenon where the intentions and goals of the architects of the new social construct are realized.

Social engineers use the scientific method to analyze and understand social systems in order to design the appropriate methods to achieve the desired results in the human subjects.

Social engineering can be carried out by any organization, without regard to scale, or sponsorship in the public or private sector. Some of the most comprehensive, and most pervasive campaigns of social engineering are those initiated by powerful central governments with the systems of authority to widely affect the individuals and cultures within their purview.

Extremely intensive social engineering campaigns occurred in countries with authoritarian governments. In ARGENTINA’S case the pro government media, which accounts for almost 90%, has done so by simply feeding the public carefully selected information that in most cases does not concur to reality.  

Discussion of the possibilities for manipulation became especially active following the close win of the presidential elections by Macri. With the advent of mass television, social networks and continuing discussion of techniques of social engineering, particularly in advertising, and bias-based journalism, such approaches remain quite pertinent in the western model of consumer capitalism. Journalism, when the intent is not to report objectively, but to report with an intent to sway popular attitudes and social behaviors or to "shape public opinion", comes under the scope of social engineering, which is clearly the case in ARGENTINA under the rule of Macri. 

This also applies when information that would bring into question the viewpoints and social goals of a journalistic establishment is withheld in favor of other information.

TURKEY AND THE "COUP"

ERDOĞAN’S COUP: PURGING DOMESTIC CRITICS, GAINING EXTERNAL ALLIES

 “President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN prepared a list of targets for arrest even before the coup (sic) was launched”, EUROPEAN Commission official on TURKEY (quoted in FT, 7/19/2016).

THE COUP IN TURKEY WAS MADE TO ORDER.

A group of military officers and police officials were set-up to seize power by senior intelligence operatives in the ERDOĞAN regime. They were allowed to drop a few bombs, seize bridges and buildings before they were encircled, rounded-up and arrested using a list of targets for arrest prepared even before the so-called coup. In the midst of this fake coup, the ‘vacationing’ ERDOĞAN flies into ISTANBUL unharmed, of course, because his vacation resort was bombed after he had left. He seizes the mass media, denounces the coup, rouses the Muslim masses and sets about on a mass purge of TURKISH society, concentrating on the civil service, teachers and administrators, the military, the courts and judges. Indeed every institution capable of independent action or reputedly critical of ERDOĞAN is closed. After a week over 60,000 people had been purged.

Why did ERDOĞAN purge TURKISH society?

What policies will follow ERDOĞAN’S power grab?

PRELUDE TO THE COUP

Over the past 5 years ERDOĞAN has suffered a series of political, economic and diplomatic failures and defeats, seriously undermining his dictatorial and territorial ambitions. His air force shot down a RUSSIAN military jet operating within SYRIAN territory. The images of TURKISH jihadi mercenaries murdering a RUSSIAN pilot as he parachuted to safety, as well as a member of the RUSSIAN rescue party, caused the RUSSIAN government to halt the multi-billion-dollar RUSSIAN tourism industry in TURKEY and cancel lucrative business deals. He broke relations with ISRAEL, which undercut a lucrative gas and oil offshore contract. His support for ISIS and other violent Salafist mercenary groups operating in IRAQ and SYRIA provoked a rupture with SYRIA and IRAN. His subsequent effort to disavow TURKEY’S links with ISIS led to a series of horrific terror bombings by jihadi cells implanted in the country. TURKEY’S diplomatic position in EGYPT deteriorated as ERDOĞAN sought to maintain his ties with the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD after it had been ousted from power by a US sponsored EGYPTIAN military coup.

Domestically, ERDOĞAN alienated the secular KEMALIST military and civilian political-economic elite via trumped up trials and media purges. ERDOĞAN’S heavy-handed assault on liberal and leftist protestors over environmental issues increased Western concern. His brutal handling of the labor protests following the 2014 SOMA coalmine disaster, when over 300 workers were killed, further isolated him.

ERDOĞAN’S war on the KURDISH independence movements in TURKEY, IRAQ and especially in SYRIA, where they were allied with the US against the jihadi terrorist ISIS, added to domestic unrest and international isolation.

In order to consolidate his executive power, ERDOĞAN had first allied with the extensive GULENIST-ISLAMIST networks in TURKEY in order to undermine the KEMALISTS and then he turned around to purge his former allies.

Faced with enemies and adversaries at home and overseas, ERDOĞAN decided on a dual strategy of improving his ties abroad, especially his links with RUSSIA and ISRAEL while launching a total war on domestic critics.

FABRICATED COUP AND THE PERMANENT PURGE

ERDOĞAN’S intelligence operatives within the military command encouraged or even provoked his critics in the General Staff, who were fed up with his bungling and disastrous policies, to mount a coup. They gave the rebellious military sufficient space and resources to provide a semblance of authority while retaining strategic control over the air force and key ground troops. They may have feigned sympathy to the launching of a premature uprising …doomed to defeat. Once the heavily infiltrated rebel units moved, the entire ERDOĞAN operation struck. Hapless conscripts thought they had been called out for military exercises, only to find themselves encircled, arrested and even lynched. The dissidents were isolated, their advances paralyzed, their leaders incapacitated. ERDOĞAN’S loyalist within the TURKISH Air Force flew the triumphant president into the ‘liberated’ ISTANBUL International airport to the cheers of his adoring civilian supporters.

ERDOĞAN immediately decreed a massive purge – in the name of the fatherland. A real coup had indeed taken place – ERDOĞAN’S total power grab. The entire political, military, judicial and police system was stripped of personnel within hours. There were over 20,000 arrests, beatings and disappearances. There were calls to re-introduce the death penalty.

ERDOĞAN’S power grab eliminated key US assets among the GULENIST and eliminated independent Supreme Court officials and secular republican officials. The president was free to rebuild an entire civil, governmental and military apparatus with his own loyalists. His control over the media and the educational institutions was total.

RULE UNDER ERDOĢAN

ERDOĞAN’S pre-emptive coup, purge and power grab will result in a monolithic state which ERDOĢAN will shape into his long-sought version of an Islamist regime. The new regime announced a ‘State of Emergency’, which places all TURKS under strict compliance with ERDOĞAN’S policies.

ERDOĞAN’S “New Order” will launch large-scale operations against the KURDS, with no respect for the SYRIAN or IRAQI national borders. ERDOĞAN will ensure compliance with Islamist decrees designed to enforce conformity. He will succeed in imposing a dictatorial ‘Presidential’ regime. And parliament, if necessary will be bypassed; his ‘electoral’ mandate will be ensured.

In the immediate aftermath, mass detentions will strengthen the state – and ERDOĞAN’S generals, allied religious authorities and street thugs will call the shots.

Unleashing force and violence against his domestic enemies, however, may lead to internal disputes among the new predators over the spoils of victory. The economic elite may accept the New Order, but only if and when ERDOĞAN tones down his rhetorical attacks on the US and the EU.

ERDOĞAN has yet to develop a strategy on replacing the purged (‘GULENIST’) professionals within the civilian economy and public bureaucracy – especially the schools and judiciary. The impetuous reversals of his reckless policy of confrontation with RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, IRAN, IRAQ and the KURDS are likely to generate new layers of discontent, especially among his current military commanders.

ERDOĞAN’S New Order arises from the breakdown of civil society and long-term alliances. He may remain in power in ANKARA but he will be viewed as more of a local political thug than a partner among the regional big powers.

ERDOĞAN’S external allies will exploit his isolation and radical bombast to forge lucrative alliances. ISRAEL will push for favorable gas and oil deals; RUSSIA will insist that ERDOĞAN abandons his ISIS allies. The US will demand he cease attacks on the KURDS. The EU will use the ongoing purge and re-institution of the death penalty to finally declare TURKEY unfit to join the EUROPEAN UNION. Bankers and foreign investors will wait for ERDOĞAN to stop his rampage over the financial sector and ‘get serious’ about the economy.

ERDOĞAN’S DREAM OF LIFETIME RULER SHIP PRESIDING OVER AN ISLAMIC NEO-OTTOMAN CALIPHATE,

buttressed by street mobs, praetorian guards and crony capitalists makes for an unstable and unruly TURKEY. ERDOĞAN’S military loyalists have their own rivalries and ambitions. Now that ERDOĞAN has established his ‘military road to power’, he has set a clear precedent for other ‘ERDOĞAN’S’ to take the same route.

In the short-run ERDOĞAN needs to restart the economy, stabilize the political system and establish a semblance of international order.

ERDOĞAN cannot and probably will not prolong tensions with the US over the GULEN affair. GULEN will remain in PENNSYLVANIA, in the CIA’s ‘regime change’ pocket. Meanwhile, he has eliminated most of the GULENIST agents capable of working with the US as a fifth-column. The question is whether he now moves back to his role as a ‘valued’ NATO junior partner, or if he will launch an intensified war against the US’s strategic KURDISH allies?

ERDOĞAN’S ties with RUSSIA are precarious. There is no reason for the RUSSIANS to trust him. He has fallen somewhere between the need for reconciliation with RUSSIA and the desire to continue his proxy war against the government of SYRIA.

In the end ERDOĞAN may have secured power and undertaken a vast domestic purge of his enemies, but he has lost the regional war while bearing the consequences of millions of war refugees and a deeply entrenched jihadi terrorist threat within TURKEY.

The original source of this article is Global Research

Copyright © Prof. James Petras, Global Research, 2016

TURKEY AND EUROPE

ENERGY IS THE REASON EUROPE IS STILL BACKING ERDOGAN

A lot of people in EUROPE are wondering why political leaders on the continent seem to be ready to agree with whatever TURKISH President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN says, and do anything he demands. Many resent ERDOGAN’S hand-twisting approach to the migrant crisis and worry about TURKEY turning into a dictatorship, plain and simple.

Now, the attempted coup by the TURKISH military has become the latest event to highlight TURKEY’S major role in the global energy market and the implications of any political shakeup in the country for this same market.

The BOSPHORUS is where around 3 percent of daily global crude oil shipments pass, or some 3 million barrels. This may not be a lot in percentage terms, but for EUROPE it accounts for well over a quarter of its total crude oil imports. EUROPE imported 1.559 billion barrels from the former SOVIET UNION last year, or an average of 4 million barrels daily, according to EUROPEAN Commission figures.

TURKEY - A MAJOR HUB FOR OIL AND GAS COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA

Besides the BOSPHORUS, TURKEY is also home to two pipelines for CASPIAN and IRAQI crude, as well as the Southern Gas Corridor, which should provide EUROPE with an alternative source of natural gas in hopes of undermining the leading position of RUSSIA’S Gazprom on the EUROPEAN market.

There is also the CEYHAN port, TURKEY’S main crude export terminal. This is where the two pipelines from AZERBAIJAN and IRAQ end up, and this is also allegedly where a lot of ISIS oil ends up. In short, TURKEY is already a major hub for oil and gas coming from the MIDDLE EAST and CENTRAL ASIA, and its importance in this respect will only grow as new projects—especially gas projects—come online.

Then there is the SYRIAN war, and TURKEY’S vested interest in it in light of plans for a pipeline that would carry gas from QATAR to TURKEY, and from there, on to EUROPE. This pipeline would serve the geopolitical interests of SAUDI ARABIA, helping it to get the upper hand over IRAN, which, now that most of the economic sanctions against it have been lifted, is eager to return to the global energy market. It would also, some would argue, serve U.S. geopolitical interests by once again undermining RUSSIA’S dominance as gas supplier to the EUROPEAN continent.

IRAN-IRAQ: PIPELINE TO SYRIA UPS ANTE IN PROXY WAR WITH QATAR

IRAQ’S agreement to allow IRAN to build a pipeline through its territory and on to SYRIA is in direct competition with QATAR’S similar designs for a SYRIA pipeline that would connect to TURKEY. This pipeline is another proxy in the SYRIAN conflict theater and Iran’s response to its loss of ground here. It is also a sign of IRAN’S growing foothold in IRAQ. QATAR will respond in kind.

The IRAQI Cabinet green lighted IRAN’S $10 billion pipeline project, which will supply gas from the South Pars field (which is the largest in the world, and which, as mentioned above, it shares with QATAR) to SYRIA and beyond to other export markets. There is talk of extending the pipeline to LEBANON.

The first part of the pipeline—some 225 kilometers—through IRAQ will reportedly be completed in June 2013. The pipeline will connect the southern IRANIAN port of Assolouyeh to IRAQ and then to SYRIA—for now. It will have a 110 million cubic meter/day capacity. The plan is to give IRAQ 20 million cubic meters/day of IRANIAN gas for its power plants, with 20-25 million cubic meters/day going to SYRIA. Source: http://news.az/articles/iran/41175

TURKEYS AND EUROPE’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS ARE LARGELY OVERLAPPING

These geopolitical interests largely overlap with EUROPEAN ones. The EUROPEAN UNION (EU) has made it abundantly clear that it wants a variety of energy supply sources. Natural gas is especially important as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude. Europe will need more gas in the years to come, and it doesn’t want it to come from RUSSIA—or at least not so much of it.

This is why EUROPE is tip-toeing around ERDOGAN; and this is why EUROPEAN leaders seem to dance to any tune ANKARA’S boss plays. That’s also why EUROPEAN leaders were not too enthusiastic when the attempted coup failed, despite official declarations in support of ERDOGAN’S government.

ERDOGAN - THE NEW MASTER OF THE EUROPEAN GAS TAP

They did have enough dignity left to warn him to watch himself when dealing with the coup plotters; yet one cannot help but ask: what is EUROPE going to do if ERDOGAN decides to re-introduce the death penalty, especially for them? What is it going to do if he uses the coup to further curb civil rights and cement himself at the helm? Refuse to admit TURKEY into the EUROPEAN UNION? Not a big deal as far as ERDOGAN and his vision of a new imperial TURKEY that dominates the region are concerned.

ERDOGAN will in all likelihood be the new master of the EUROPEAN gas tap. It’s ironic how democratic EUROPE seems to be forever dependent on dictators for its energy, at least until it goes fully renewable, which is not going to happen any time soon.

By Irina Slav via Oilprice.com

Background Information: Click on title to read entire report

SYRIA – QATAR PIPELINE

NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

IS THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” THE ANSWER TO THE WHY THE WAR IN SYRIA WAGES?

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote in January 2012:

GEO STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF IRAN’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND GAS PIPELINE DEAL BETWEEN IRAN SYRIA AND IRAQ and

REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?

AUSTRIA AND THE RISE OF THE RIGHT

THE RISE OF THE RIGHT IN AUSTRIA COULD BE A POLITICAL TIPPING POINT

On October 2nd, a presidential election in AUSTRIA could mark the tipping point of changing political tides in EUROPE and usher in a cycle of right-wing politics.

Recently, AUSTRIA’S Constitutional Court ruled that the results of May’s presidential runoff election were overturned. The Court referred to irregularities in vote counting, which necessitated a re-run. With immigration quickly becoming one of the most important issues for EUROPEAN states, this election could set the precedent for upcoming elections in EUROPE.

Having previously lost by a mere 0.6 percent, NORBERT HOFER of the far right Freedom Party (FPO) stands a good chance of becoming the first far-right head of state in the EUROPEAN UNION. What to expect from a Western democracy led by a far-right president in the 21st century?

DEMOCRACY ENABLES THE RISE OF THE RIGHT

While the recent BREXIT was a clear example of a right-wing outcome to a democratic election, the upcoming AUSTRIAN election may be the tipping point towards a EUROPEAN rightist era.

Politics run in cycles, and the previous cycle of left-leaning governments in EUROPE and the AMERICAS appear to be coming to an end.

Fears of immigration, underperforming economies, and a growing sense of disillusion with international governmental organizations is taking hold. With national elections scheduled throughout this year and the next, the political scene may begin to portray new priorities among the populaces.

This will not be a top-down hostile take-over by right-wing party leaders. As Brexit showed, the push came from an active voter bloc. The same will hold true for AUSTRIA’S election in October.

The Constitutional Court’s decision to hold a repeat of the presidential election is widely regarded as the right decision from a legal point of view. This type of repeat election is unprecedented in WESTERN democracies, but when the court found that 14 out of 20 of the constituencies under investigation had irregularities in vote-counting, it was clear that the results of the May election were compromised. The fact that the election was decided by 30,863 votes demonstrates that any claim of vote irregularities had to be taken seriously by the court, or risk allowing a failure of democracy.

The Constitutional Court did its duty by calling for a repeat election, even as it assured AUSTRIA another round of contested presidential elections. Democracy, it can be said, was served as the judicial branch of government worked to guarantee a third opportunity for the AUSTRIAN people to be heard.

While many observers worry that this third round will favor Mr. HOFER, it is difficult to say that this advantage was won in an undemocratic manner. As BREXIT shows, while the result may not be what was expected or favored, it is what the voters wanted. The tides are turning in EUROPE, and that is all a supporter of democracy today may ask for.

WILL THE FAR-RIGHT DAMAGE DEMOCRACY?

Serious concerns exist that far-right politicians elected to positions of leadership will damage the democratic institutions, which brought them to power. This would run counter to claims that democracy begets more democracy, but it is not unprecedented.

In EUROPE, a safety net exists in the high level of interconnection among states. There is a general sense that should a government step too far, the EUROPEAN UNION will intercede at some point. This can be seen in POLAND currently, and this is likely to continue should a far-right party come to power in any EUROPEAN state. While by no means a guarantee, it is probable that the election of a far-right leader would not lead to a decrease in democratic freedoms among the populace, due to this safety net.

Domestic politics are increasingly important as globalization brings the world closer together. AUSTRIA’S upcoming election, no matter the outcome, will be projected onto future elections, particularly the US presidential election in November. The growing trend towards right-wing policies may be a temporary blip on the political radar, or it may be the beginning of a new political cycle.

BREXIT

THE JINGOISM OF BRITISH CONSERVATIVES

Leading UK conservatives act as if they know everything. But they know little about the world outside

The UK was a pivotal player in EUROPEAN affairs. In keeping with its favorite historic role as the “offshore balancer,” it has served as a somewhat distant, but effective member of the EU until now.

ABANDONING ITS HISTORICAL ROLE

That the UK would effectively remove itself from that vital role via the BREXIT vote is one of the most stunning acts of isolationism in our time.

That BRITAIN’S conservatives were the ones to bring this move about is even more stunning, considering that they are usually the ones to preserve — not wreck — deeply engrained national traditions.

To add madness to all this short-sightedness, BRITISH conservatives also argued that an important reason for pulling up the drawbridge and removing their country from the continent’s politics was GERMANY’S “dominance” in EUROPEAN affairs.

That is the height of folly and irrationality. After all, BREXIT makes this scenario much more probable.

UK CONSERVATIVES: JINGOISM RULES

This turn of events should not come as a surprise in a political camp that increasingly panders to jingoism.

That is a deliberate choice on the part of the Tories. By playing to anti-foreigner sentiments, they expand their voting pool.

Most leading conservative politicians in the UK also hold a world view where the UK is plainly superior to all other cultures. They act as if they are there to judge everything and everybody, while really being not knowledgeable about the rest of the world. No language skills, no first-hand insights.

TABLOIDS AS ENFORCERS OF ANTI-FOREIGNER MINDSETS

Perhaps the most important factor the Tories are utilizing is the bosses of BRITISH media empires. They are calling on their journalistic brigades to whip the BRITISH people into an anti-foreigner frenzy.

The peculiar irony in this curious display of media power? Most of the owners of the mass circulation tabloid newspapers are either foreigners themselves – or, equally apropos in PANAMA Papers times, they do not pay taxes in BRITAIN.

RUPERT MURDOCH owns tabloids like THE SUN and the establishment THE TIMES newspaper. The owners of the middle-class’s favorite paper, the DAILY TELEGRAPH, live in tax exile, as does LORD ROTHERMERE, the owner of the influential DAILY MAIL, with 16 million online readers.

THERESA MAY: A PRISONER OF DARK FORCES

THERESA MAY, the new Prime Minister, is a prisoner of these forces, no matter how reasonable and rational she may want to act.

It was DAVID CAMERON who not only conceived of the BREXIT referendum idea but who, like the sorcerer’s apprentice, let the jingoism out of the bottle.

THERESA MAY may try to become the master of these dark forces. However, no amount of lofty rhetoric about independence will heal the deep level of resentment that sears BRITISH society.

IWF AN EU:

ENTEIGNET EURE BÜRGER!

Das globale Finanzsystem gleicht seit 2008 einem Patienten, der auf der Intensivstation liegt und künstlich am Leben erhalten wird. Seine Ärzte sind die Zentralbanken, die ihm immer höhere Dosen immer billigeren Geldes verabreichen und dabei wissen: Ohne diese Behandlung wäre der Patient innerhalb kürzester Zeit tot.

Von Ernst Wolff

Ähnlich wie mit dem Finanzsystem verhält es sich derzeit mit den italienischen Banken. Sie sind aus eigener Kraft nicht überlebensfähig. Für genau diesen Fall hat die EU die Bail-in–Regelung eingeführt. Sie besagt: In Not geratene Banken sollen nicht mehr wie 2008 durch ein Bail-out, also mit dem Geld der Steuerzahler, sondern zunächst durch die teilweise Enteignung von Aktionären, Einlegern und Sparern gerettet werden.

ITALIEN UND EU IN DER SACKGASSE

Dieses Prinzip ist allerdings bereits im vergangenen Dezember bei vier Banken in der Toskana angewendet worden und hat nicht nur dort, sondern in ganz ITALIEN für Aufruhr gesorgt: Es wurde nämlich deutlich, dass es alles andere als sozial gerecht ist. Während ultrareiche Investoren ihre Vermögen durch ihren Informationsvorsprung rechtzeitig abziehen und in Sicherheit bringen konnten, wurden Arbeiter, Angestellte, Kleinunternehmer und Rentner kalt erwischt und über Nacht zwangsenteignet. Einige von ihnen verloren ihre gesamten Ersparnisse, ein Rentner nahm sich aus Verzweiflung das Leben.

Die italienische Regierung steht nun vor einem unlösbaren Dilemma: Wendet sie die Bail-in-Regelung erneut an, muss sie mit heftigem sozialem Widerstand, möglicherweise einem Volksaufstand und einem Run auf die Banken rechnen. Wendet sie die Regelung nicht an, ist sie auf die Unterstützung der EU angewiesen.

Die EU aber befindet sich ebenfalls in einer Zwangslage: Gibt sie den italienischen Forderungen nach, macht sie sich nicht nur unglaubwürdig, sondern verteilt das Problem einfach nur auf alle europäischen Steuerzahler. Diese aber sind gleichzeitig die Wähler der nationalen Regierungen und werden jede weitere Maßnahme dieser Art durch Abwendung von den etablierten Parteien und nach dem Brexit-Votum der Briten durch weitere Austrittsforderungen aus der EU quittieren.

DER IWF SCHALTET SICH EIN

In die Patt-Situation zwischen der italienischen Regierung und der EU-Führung hat sich nun der IWF eingeschaltet. Die erste Frage, die sich dem Beobachter aufdrängt, lautet: Wieso mischt sich der IWF überhaupt in innere Angelegenheiten der EU ein? Die Antwort: Die Angelegenheit ist alles andere als ein internes Problem der EU. Hier der Grund:

Wegen der seit Jahren instabilen Situation des Finanzsystems wird heute kaum noch ein Kredit ohne Kreditausfallversicherung (englisch: credit default swap oder CDS) vergeben. Dabei versichert sich der Kreditgeber gegen den möglichen Zahlungsausfall seines Schuldners. Was einmal vernünftig als Maßnahme zur Risikobegrenzung gedacht war, ist durch die Deregulierung der Finanzmärkte in eine der gefährlichsten Tellerminen im Finanzgeschäft verwandelt worden: Heute ist es nämlich auch solchen Marktteilnehmern, die an der Vergabe eines Kredites nicht beteiligt sind, gestattet, eine Kreditausfallversicherung abzuschließen.

Das hat jede Menge Spekulanten auf den Plan gerufen, die sich gezielt nach unsicheren Krediten umsehen und darauf Ausfallversicherungen abschließen, d.h.: auf ihren Ausfall wetten. Je mehr von ihnen auf den Zug aufspringen, umso größer die Summe, die bei einem tatsächlichen Ausfall des Schuldners fällig wird – im Falle der italienischen Banken dürfte es sich dabei inzwischen um weit mehr als eine Billion Euro handeln.

Insbesondere Hedgefonds (Vermögensverwaltungen für Milliardäre) lauern im Hintergrund und warten nur darauf, dass es zu Zahlungsausfällen kommt. Da die meisten Kreditausfallversicherungen bei Marktgiganten wie der DEUTSCHEN BANK, der CRÉDIT SUISSE und den US-Großbanken JP-MORGAN und GOLDMAN SACHS abgeschlossen wurden, ist das Problem der italienischen Banken also kein nationales, sondern ein internationales. Und in der internationalen Arena hat vor allem einer das Sagen: der IWF.

Allerdings steckt der IWF in Bezug auf die EU ebenfalls in der Klemme. Auf der einen Seite ist die EU ein Konkurrent der USA, daher ist der IWF an ihrer Schwächung interessiert. Auf der anderen Seite ist die EU ein essentieller Teil des globalen Finanzgefüges und könnte es im Falle ihres Zusammenbruchs mit in den Abgrund reißen. Aus diesem Grund muss der IWF also versuchen, die EU trotz aller Störmanöver am Leben zu erhalten.

DAS REZEPT DES IWF IST BEREITS AUSGESTELLT

In der Tat bemüht sich der IWF zurzeit um eine solche Doppel-Strategie: Indem er die italienische Regierung in ihrer Forderung nach einem Bail-out durch die EU unterstützt, treibt er die seinem Vorschlag ablehnend gegenüberstehenden deutschen Politiker in die Enge: Geben sie nicht nach, droht der Banken-Kollaps in ITALIEN, geben sie nach, wird die Empörung darüber ihren Rückhalt in der Bevölkerung weiter schwinden lassen.

Noch kann niemand sagen, wie das Drama um die italienischen Banken ausgehen wird. Nur eines ist gewiss: Selbst ihre vorübergehende Stabilisierung würde nur einen Bruchteil der Probleme in der Eurozone lösen. Derzeit nicht im Blick der Öffentlichkeit sind nämlich noch die spanischen, portugiesischen und griechischen Banken, deren Bilanzen ebenfalls riesige Löcher aufweisen. Dazu kommen die Staatsschulden, die inzwischen nicht nur in GRIECHENLAND, sondern auch in ITALIEN, SPANIEN, PORTUGAL, BELGIEN und IRLAND mehr als 100 % des Bruttoinlandsproduktes ausmachen und damit als untragbar gelten.

Das Problem, vor dem die EU zurzeit steht, ist also erheblich größer als das der italienischen Banken und erfordert langfristig wesentlich mehr Geld als eine „einfache“ Bankenrettung. Doch woher soll es in einer Situation allgemein hoffnungsloser Verschuldung kommen?

Der IWF hat seine Antwort auf diese Frage bereits vor Jahren gegeben: In der Broschüre „Taxing Times“ vom Oktober 2013 hat er zur Lösung der europäischen Schuldenkrise eine „einmalige Vermögensabgabe“ in Form einer Steuer auf Privatvermögen ins Gespräch gebracht und diese Forderung sogar präzisiert: „Um die Schuldenquote auf das Niveau vom Jahresende 2007 zu senken, bedürfte es… eines Steuersatzes von etwa 10 % auf alle Haushalte, die über Kapitalvermögen verfügen.“ Da die Verschuldung seit 2013 um ca. 1,5 Billionen Euro gestiegen ist, müsste der Prozentsatz heute also noch etwas höher liegen.

In anderen Worten: Für den Ernstfall verlangt der IWF von der EU, der arbeitenden Bevölkerung durch einen Rundumschlag einen Teil ihrer hart erarbeiteten Rücklagen zu entziehen. Und das nicht etwa, um die Probleme der EU ein für allemal aus der Welt zu schaffen, sondern nur, um einen Reset auf den Stand von 2007 vorzunehmen! Da der IWF keinerlei Konsequenzen für die Verursacher der Krise fordert, ist es nicht schwer, sich seine Zukunftsvision auszumalen: Nach der Enteignung darf das gegenwärtige Spiel zu den gleichen Regeln wieder von vorn beginnen: Nachdem die arbeitende Bevölkerung gezwungen wurde, für die von ultrareichen Investoren angerichteten Schäden aufzukommen, dürfen diese nach dem Willen des IWF auch weiterhin ungehemmt auf Kosten der Allgemeinheit spekulieren.

Ernst Wolff ist freier Journalist und Autor des Buches „Weltmacht IWF – Chronik eines Raubzugs“, erschienen im Tectum-Verlag, Marburg. Sc