SAUDI ARABIA AND KASHMIR

THE WAHHABI INVASION: HOW SAUDI USES ITS FINANCIAL SOURCE IN ORDER TO RADICALIZE KASHMIR

Via India Today

The famed Sufi tradition and spirit of KASHMIRIYAT in the Valley, already ravaged by decades of insurgency, faces a new challenge. Wahhabism, an austere, puritanical interpretation of Islam promoted by SAUDI ARABIA, is making deep inroads into KASHMIR due to the efforts of the Jamiat Ahl-e-Hadith, which calls itself a religious and welfare organisation.

Background Information:

NEW MOVEMENT

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

Swelling congregations flock to about 700 mosques that the organisation, which registered itself way back in 1958, has built across the Valley. Practically every village along the picturesque, poplar-lined, 60-km stretch northwest of Srinagar towards Gulmarg has one or more Ahl-e-Hadith-funded mosques. The new mosques and their attendant madrassas make for a contrasting picture with the hundreds of dilapidated mosques built over centuries in the age-old Sufi tradition. Unlike worshippers at the older Sufi shrines, Ahl-e-Hadith mosques are overtly more conservative: women wear burqas or at least a headscarf, while the men sport beards and don skull caps; their traditional salwars end just above the ankle in accordance with Wahhabi tenets.

“Young Kashmiris are restive and disillusioned. To them, Ahl-e-Hadith is a new, more committed and determined option.” Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, CPI(M) legislator

SAUDI ARABIA PLANS TO EXPAND MOSQUES AND MADRASSAS CONSTRUCTIONS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA 

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police and Central intelligence officers say Ahl-e-Hadith’s funding comes primarily from SAUDI ARABIA. Based on US intelligence, they believe that the House of SAUD, rulers of SAUDI ARABIA, had in 2005 approved a $35-billion (Rs 1,75,000 crore) plan to build mosques and madrassas in SOUTH ASIA. “Wahhabi groups across Jammu and Kashmir were beneficiaries of this largesse,” says a senior police officer.

SAUDI CHARITY NGOS FUND WAHHABISM 

Intelligence sources say SAUDI charities and private donors route zakat (charity) money to J&K through illegal hawala channels. It increases during the Eid season. Whenever mosque managements are questioned about it, their explanation is that it is donation or goat-skin money. All organisations registered under the Foreign Contributions Regulation Act (FCRA), 1976, have to submit their annual balance sheets to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). “Not one organisation registered under the FCRA in J&K accounted for money coming in from SAUDI ARABIA,” says a senior MHA official. However, there is no way to keep track of funds received by organisations that are not registered with MHA. Most of the organisations, which have contributed to the growth of Wahhabi and Ahl-e-Hadith movements in KASHMIR, are not registered.

Background Information:

See: WAHHABISM AT THE DOORSTEPS OF EUROPE

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina.html

Sources in the Intelligence Bureau admit that they are aware of the large-scale illegal funding, but add that they cannot do much due to the sensitive internal situation. “We have taken up the issue several times with the state police but nobody wants to get into it. It suits them to ignore it,” claim sources.

Paramedics at a diagnostic centre run by the Jamiatahl-e-Hadith in Barbarshah, Srinagar.

WORLDWIDE SAUDI WAHHABI TACTICS - FROM BOSNIA TO ASIA: FUNDAMENTALIST INDOCTRINATION BY WAHHABI IN MADRASSAS, SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES

 

Admitting massive cash inflows to the Valley, a senior state police officer says that the bulk of the illegal funds meant for Wahhabi groups and other hardline factions are physically transferred across the Line of Control and at the trading station in Uri in the form of hard currency-both real and fake INDIAN currency notes-taking advantage of the barter trade being permitted between J&K and PAKISTAN-Occupied Kashmir. “Checks by customs officers are at best cursory. There are no X-ray machines and other standard international border control equipment. The army merely observes the goings-on,” he says. The officer adds that it is impossible to quantify the smuggled funds and that no agency-Central or state-has made any effort to do so.

What concerns police and intelligence officials more is the possibility of Lashkar-e-Toiba and Tehreek-ul-Mujahideen militants relying on Ahl-e-Hadith members to provide them hideouts. “Indoctrinated Wahhabis are the least likely to turn in Islamist militants to the police,” says a senior intelligence official.

“A knee-jerk response could be dangerous. The organisation is doing a lot of good work and has a considerable following.” Mehbooba Mufti, People’s Democratic Party chief

Scarcely visible a decade and a half ago, Ahl-e-Hadith now claims over 15 lakh members, over 16 per cent of Jammu and KASHMIR’S Muslims. Besides the 700 mosques and madrassas it built, Ahl-e-Hadith is believed to have funded 150 schools, several colleges, orphanages, clinics and medical diagnostic centres. It has also proposed an Rs 200-crore Islamic university, Transworld Muslim University (TWMU), in Hyderpora, Srinagar, affiliated to leading SAUDI institutions. The proposal was referred to a select committee after state Congress chief Saifuddin Soz opposed it in the Legislative Council on October 9, 2010.

TWMU is planned as a multi-disciplinary institution with a stated mission to “facilitate a new generation of leaders in medicine, science, technology and religion based on the Shariahâ”. Ahl-e-Hadith is already engaged in setting up key faculties within its existing institutions across Srinagar. Accepting responsibility for halting the proposal, Soz was reticent about his reasons for refusing permission, since the proposal was cleared in February 2008 by then Congress Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad. Official sources claimed it was blocked, following intervention by J&K Governor N.N. Vohra on the advice of security agencies. Both the ruling National Conference and the Opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had supported the bill. PDP head Mehbooba Mufti cautions that any decision to scuttle the university must be preceded by a thorough investigation into Ahl-e-Hadith’s sources of finance. “A knee-jerk response could be dangerous. After all, the organisation is doing a lot of good work and has a considerable following,” she says.

LIKE IN BOSNIA, WAHHBISM IS EXPERIENCING INCREASING POPULARITY AMONG YOUTH

PURISTS ON THE PROWLWahhabi codes run counter to the age-old Sufi tradition. Wahhabis forbid invoking names of prophets or ‘pirs’; Shrines are viewed as ‘deviant’ and forbidden. Stringent dress codes are prescribed for both men and women. Men must grow beards, wear a prayer cap and keep trousers just above their ankels; women must observe purdah. Music and dance, even loud laughter and demonstrative weeping at funerals, is actively discouraged. Alcohol, tobacco and other stimulants are prohibited. Women are dissuaded from working except where their families are in financial distress. Gender segregation is actively enforced. Men and women are discouraged from socialising in public forums.

 
The organisation’s rapid proliferation and increasing popularity among youth is making KASHMIR’S predominantly Sufi-Hanafi community anxious. “Opportunities for better education and secure future draw young KASHMIRIS for whom Ahl-e-Hadith represents a new, untested alternative,” says CPI(M) legislator Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami. The conservative Jamaat-e-Islami, too, is nervous at the prospect of ceding political ground. Ahl-e-Hadith’s feisty General Secretary Abdul Rehman Bhat, 65, insists, “Delhi is unwittingly playing into the hands of separatists like Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who are opposed to our university.” Hurriyat leaders Geelani and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq belatedly voiced support for the university in a joint statement in November. Non-committal on the Wahhabi proliferation, Geelani says the greatest threat to KASHMIRIYAT is from “the occupation forces deployed by INDIA”. But Tarigami says Ahl-e-Hadith is contrary to the Jamaat’s ideological framework: “The Jamaat- e-Islami leadership perceives a dilution in their own brand value.”

AHL-E-HADITH-RUN ENGLISH COACHING INSTITUTE

The Jammu and KASHMIR Peace Foundation (JKPF), a Hanafi organisation devoted to reviving historic Sufi shrines, believes that a sinister process of “fundamentalist indoctrination” is under way in Wahhabi madrassas and schools. Based on a district-wise count, JKPF’s Chairman Fayaz Ahmad Bhatt, 40, says nearly 7,000 mosques, including 911 in Srinagar, preach the orthodox Wahhabi brand of Islam. KASHMIR’S non-Muslim minority, too, views the Wahhabi ingress as a “conspiracy to Talibanise KASHMIR”. “The Taliban had also sprung from PAKISTANI madrassas funded by the Wahhabis,” says former Kashmir University professor Kashi Nath Pandita.

Ahl-e-Hadith leaders vigorously deny all links to Islamist extremist groups. “We are more liberal than those that criticise us,” says Bhat. He points out that former Ahl-e-Hadith president Maulana Showkat Ahmad Shah was assassinated by Tehreek-ul-Mujahideen militants outside a mosque in Srinagar’s Maisuma locality on April 8 because he opposed extremism.

Bhat talks about the Ahl-e-Hadith-run English coaching institute for adolescent girls just above his Barbarshah, Srinagar, office and the diagnostic facility and pharmacy on the floor below that offers services at concessional rates. “No one is turned away, not even CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) jawans,: he says. He also points to the Salafia Muslim Institute, the co-educational school with 800 children on Srinagar’s airport road in Parraypora. “We get strict about scarves for girls only after Class VI,” says Principal Mufti Altaf. Students are segregated by gender after Class II.

Ahl-e-Hadith has two registered charities that are eligible to receive foreign funding under FCRA. But the organisation denies receiving any SAUDI money after 1996. Bhat, however, admits there are grants and scholarships for students to go for studies in Jeddah. He claims that the money spent on building new mosques and schools is raised via zakat. The total annual collection from all 700 mosques Ahl-e-Hadith claims to run across the state is around Rs 2.5. Even if one were to accept Bhat’s claim that it costs them only Rs 10 lakh to build a new mosque, the organisation would have ended up spending much more in building the 350 new mosques it has since 2004 than what it gathered through zakat.

Mehbooba is not overly worried about the Wahhabis because she believes KASHMIRIS would never surrender their inherent freedom so easily. “Sufism is not merely a religious belief but a way of life. Women here did not take to the burqa even when militancy was at its peak,” she says. Her confidence is cold comfort, given the rapid growth of the Ahl-e-Hadith’s influence.

More Background Information:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/dagestan-syria-comes-to-russia.html

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html

ZYPERN KRISE - EZB-SCHIEFLAGE:

DRAGHI BRAUCHT DAS GELD DER BANK-KUNDEN IN ZYPERN 

Via Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten 

Für die EUROPÄISCHE Zentralbank geht es in der ZYPERN-Krise auch um das eigene Überleben: Der Großteil der Staatsanleihen von ZYPERN sind bei der EZB als Sicherheiten hinterlegt. Sie machen ein Drittel des Eigenkapitals der EZB aus. Geht ZYPERN pleite, wankt die EZB.

Viele Beobachter fragen sich, warum die Euro-Retter im kleinen ZYPERN nicht dasselbe machen wie in GRIECHENLAND: Dort gab es einen Schulden-Schnitt für die Investoren in griechische Staatsanleihen. Beim ZYPERN-Deal bleiben die ZYPRIOTISCHEN Staatsanleihen außen vor: Sie sind nicht vom Haircut betroffen. Auch die Bond-Inhaber von Banken-Anleihen werden nicht zur Kasse gebeten.

ZYPERN GEHÖRT LÄNGST NICHT MEHR SICH SELBER, SONDERN DER EZB

Hintergrund:

DE FACTO LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY: CYPRUS MAKES BIG CONCESSIONS FOR BAILOUT (via Der Spiegel )

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/01/cyprus-under-claws-of-imf.html

 EU - ZYPERN - GENERALPROBE
 http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/eu-zypern-generalprobe-erfolgreiche.html

Der Grund ist einfach: Der überwiegende Teil der Staatsanleihen ZYPERNS sind bei EZB als Sicherheiten hinterlegt. Die Papiere wurden bei der EZB als Pfand für neue Schulden hinterlegt. Das heißt: ZYPERN gehört längst nicht mehr sich selber, sondern der EZB.

Für die Bank-Anleihen hat ZYPERN eine Staatsgarantie ausgesprochen: Gehen die Banken pleite, hat ZYPERN für die Anleihen der beiden größten Banken eine Garantie gegeben. Das bedeutet: Wenn eine der Banken pleitegeht, steht der Staat für die Schulden gerade.

Es gibt zwar keine offiziellen Zahlen. Mark Grant von Out of the Box schätzt jedoch, dass bei der EZB Papiere im Wert von 11,6 Milliarden Dollar aus ZYPERN als Sicherheiten hinterlegt sind.

ZYPERN-PLEITE WÜRDE DAS EIGENKAPITAL DER EZB DRAMATISCH REDUZIERT

Im Klartext: Das Schlimmste für Mario Draghi wäre eine Staatspleite in ZYPERN. Dann hätte die EZB einen Verlust von etwa 12 Milliarden Dollar. Das gesamte Eigenkapital der EZB betrug nach Berechnungen von Hans-Werner Sinn etwa 31 Milliarden Euro. Mit einer ZYPERN-Pleite würde das Eigenkapital der EZB folglich dramatisch reduziert.

Über Target 2 ist das natürlich auch ein Thema für die Bundesbank: Im Falle eines Verlustes müssten die EUROPÄISCHEN Staaten frisches Kapital in die EZB pumpen. Für DEUTSCHLAND wären das immerhin vermutlich etwa 3 Milliarden Euro. Alle anderen Euro-Staaten müssten den Rest aufbringen.

Im Unterschied zu den Target 2-Salden handelt es sich hierbei um reales Geld. Das muss aufgebracht werden.

Hier zeigt sich, welch gravierende Bedeutung ein solch kleines Land wie ZYPERN haben kann. Was geschieht, wenn ein großer Staat einen Crash hinlegt, kann man sich leicht ausmalen.

Dieses Szenario fürchtet Mario Draghi wie der Teufel das Weihwasser. Er muss sich an seine Ankündigung halten, alles zu tun, um den Euro zu retten.

ZYPERN ZUM RECHTSBRUCH GEZWUNGEN

Daher unternehmen die Euro-Retter tatsächlich alles, um den Inhabern von Bank-Konten in ZYPERN das Geld abzunehmen. Denn ihre Guthaben sind reale Sicherheiten, auf die EZB dann zugreifen kann. Die Staatsanleihen sind faktisch nicht mehr zu gebrauchen.

Das Schneeballsystem ist daher an einem Punkt angekommen, wo alle Schranken niedergerissen werden: Die Zwangs-Abgabe hat keinerlei rechtliche Möglichkeiten für die Konto-Inhaber. Die Insolvenz einer Bank unterläge dagegen zumindest einem vorhersehbaren rechtlichen Prozess – auch wenn die Chancen für die Kunden minimal sind, etwas von ihrem Geld wiederzusehen.

Auch die Kapitalverkehrs-Kontrollen in ZYPERN sind ein klarer Bruch des europäischen Rechts. In den Verträgen von Maastricht ist die Errichtung von Kapitalverkehrs-Kontrollen ausdrücklich untersagt. Nun wird ZYPERN zum Rechtsbruch gezwungen.

Aber jeder Rechtsbruch ist für Mario Draghi und die Euro-Retter weniger schlimm als das Zerbrechen des Euro. Fliegt das Euro-System auseinander, bleiben alle Gläubiger auf ihren Target 2-Forderungen sitzen. Im Falle DEUTSCHLANDS sind das astronomische Summen.

Aus dieser Perspektive ist der organisierte Bank-Raub in ZYPERN das kleinere Übel. Mario-Draghi und die Euro-Retter kämpfen auf ZYPERN nicht für das kleine Land. Sie kämpfen um das eigene, nackte Überleben.

PERU AND COLOMBIA:

TWO OPPORTUNITIES DEVOID OF RESOURCE NATIONALISM

While resource nationalism initiatives have scared away investors in ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, ECUADOR and VENEZUELA, PERU and COLOMBIA are two LATIN AMERICA venues that offer relatively hassle-free investment and have plenty of new acreage openings. In PERU, we think LNG is the hot track to follow, while in COLOMBIA, it’s all about shale oil—if you can stomach the improving but lingering security threat. 

PERU: ALL ABOUT LNG

Against the backdrop of increasing resource nationalism in LATIN AMERICA, PERU stands out because of its untapped natural gas reserves, a new LNG plant, new investor-friendly policies and an independent licensing regime.

While PERU is a net importer of oil, it is a net exporter of natural gas and also home to SOUTH AMERICA’S first liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant.

In a nutshell, PERU has 18 sedimentary basins with high hydrocarbons potential, but only six are undergoing any significant exploration activity and only three are currently producing. Geologically, the potential is vast: Nine of the 18 basins are located in the PERUVIAN coastal regions and the continental shelf; those basins in the central and southern continental shelf are particularly underexplored. In 2011, 18 exploratory wells were spudded, with another 25 drilled by the end of 2012 and more than 30 hoped for by the end of 2014.

As of early last year, PERU had around 582 million barrels of proven oil reserves, adding about 50 million barrels to its reserves annually for the past two years. The onshore reserves are largely in the Amazon, while offshore reserves have been discovered most notably in the Talara basin (1.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil). Onshore, the most recent big discovery was in the Maranon Basin (970 million barrels of recoverable oil).

As of 2012, foreign oil companies had managed to get a hold of 41% of the exploration license area in the Amazon, but the country’s attempt to lure in more investors could see this nearly double in the coming 2-3 years. (Right now there are more than 50 foreign oil companies engaged in oil and gas exploration and drilling in PERU). Bidding rounds in late 2011 saw 11 new exploration licenses and production contracts awarded. In late 2012, another 22 exploration blocks were up for auction in the Amazon region.

PERU IS INTENDING TO CREATE A GAS CONCESSION BORDERING OR EVEN INCLUDING PARTS OF THE MANU NATIONAL PARK IN THE AMAZON TO EXTEND EXPLORATION ACTIVITIES THERE!

Many of PERU’S oilfields are already reaching declining output, and while new exploration may boost reserves, we’d rather talk about the potential of natural gas liquids.

Almost all of PERU’S natural gas liquids production is from onshore fields. Right now, PERU has about 12.5 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, with its largest field in Camisea, in the southeast. Production here began in 2004 and has grown by nearly 40% year-on-year. However, the rate of natural gas production began exceeding domestic consumption in 2010. By December 2010, PERU'S natural gas production was in excess of 1 Bcf per day, mostly from the Camisea reserve. PERÚ LNG's revenue last year reached $1.33bn, up 3.94% from 2011. But it’s still not fully explored, and we could see another 318 billion cubic feet discovered as this progresses. 

But there are other, newer fields that hold great potential for exploration. 

•    Madre de Dios (onshore): Lot 76 of Madre de Dios, in southern PERU, is currently being explored by Hunt Oil, which believes the reserves could rival those of Camisea

•    Ucayali Basin (onshore): This field, in central PERU, was discovered by Petrobras in 2010 and is said to contain around 1.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas

•    Devonian Shale: In 2009, Maple Energy discovered unconventional gas in this shale

(There is also a leaked document that shows that the government of PERU is intending to create a gas concession bordering or even including parts of the Manu national park in the Amazon to extend exploration activities there. This one will get tricky, though, as it is home to indigenous peoples and is a unique area of biodiversity that UNESCO is keen to protect.) 

NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE

This is why we like the natural gas potential of PERU—aside from the exploration potential: pipelines and SOUTH AMERICA’S first LNG plant. Right now, there are two pipelines carrying natural gas from the Camisea fields: 1) the 336-mile, 450-million-cubic-feet/day capacity Camisea pipeline, which ends at the Pisco port terminal which handles exports; 2) a 444-mile pipeline that runs from Malvinas along the coast to Lima and Callao for residential and industrial distribution. A third pipeline, the 620-mile Southern Andean, is being built from Camisea. 

In 2010, PERU began exporting LNG from its Melchorita plant, and by early 2012 exports had reach 15 billion cubic feet, with the bulk of exports going to SPAIN, the US, MEXICO, CHINA and SOUTH KOREA. This LNG plant is owned by the PeruLNG consortium: Hunt Oil (50%), SK Energy (20%), Repsol (20%) and Marubeni (10%). The plant has a yearly capacity of 215 billion cubic feet and expansion plans are also under way for two or three more LNG trains within the next 4-5 years. 

Construction also began just over two years ago on a new liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) plant in the Cuzco area in the southeast for meeting local demand. 

A note on governance is also appropriate here: While the state body of Perupetro manages and oversees the licensing process as well as exploration and exploitation, it does not participate as a partner or shareholder with private companies. 

COLOMBIA: SHALE OIL EXPLORATION GAINS MOMENTUM

Colombia’s oil production has risen by about 40% from 2009 to 2011—making it the fastest-growing oil producer in LATIN AMERICA. Right now, the focus is on expanding unconventional exploration, but this means treading on territory that until very recently was dominated by rebel groups.

Is it too early? Perhaps. The government is still in talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The security situation remains extremely complex, and will continue to dominate the potential investment climate.

The first auctions of shale acreage in COLOMBIA were held late last year, with ExxonMobil Corp. and COLOMBIA’S state-owned Ecopetrol SA making the highest bids for three onshore blocks—two of which are believed to contain shale oil. There really wasn’t enough data on these blocks in time for the auction: only five bids were placed for 49 blocks up for grabs. 

In late February, CANADIAN company Canacol Energy Ltd (CAAEF) and ConocoPhillips joined forces to explore for shale oil in COLOMBIA’S Middle Magdalena Basin. ConocoPhillips will pay $13.5 million in cash and be responsible for the cost of drilling, completing and testing some 13 wells. ConocoPhillips will get 70% of shale oil discovered in the deeper areas of the play, while Canacol will retain 30% in the deeper areas but 100% in the shallower reservoirs. This is for Canacol’s Santa Isabel contract (334,000 acres), which is only one of five contracts it has in COLOMBIA. For other contracts, Canacol has agreements with ExxonMobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC. 

We like Canacol in COLOMBIA because we believe it is the best positioned to take advantage of the country’s unconventional shale oil play.

Right now, this is really a play for the juniors—small and medium-sized businesses. Discoveries haven’t been on a massive scale, but we like the trend that has emerged with Canacol—junior exploration lures in the majors. 

THE KEY BASINS:

The Middle Magdalena Basin: This is where the big attention is now. This basin is located in the Eastern Cordilleras of the Colombian Andes and exploration to date has led to discoveries of some 1.9 billion barrels of oil and 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. Explorers are already calling this the next Eagle Ford, and comparing it also to western ARGENTINA’S Vaca Muerta shale. Some have put recoverable shale gas reserve estimates at 31.7 trillion cubic feet.

The Llanos Basin: This east-central COLOMBIA is one of the most prospective areas for E&P, with more than 1.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil recorded so far. Around 70% of current production comes from this basin. This is the sight of a heavy oil belt (particularly in the Rubiales Field—4.38 billion barrels of oil in place). 

Caguan-Putumayo Basin: This basin is in the country’s southwest, bordering ECUADOR and PERU and covering around 104,000 square kilometers. So far, more than 365 million barrels have been discovered in 19 different fields.

Catatumbo Basin: A southwest extension of the Maracaibo Basin in VENEZUELA, the Catatumbo basin accounts for about 2% of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves. It is one of the most prolific basins, but only moderately explored.

 Via Oilprice