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| ARAB GULF STATES |
ENERGY CHESS GAME: THE REAL REASON SYRIAN INTERVENTION?
Is the reported willingness of ARAB
GULF states to fund a U.S. military campaign in SYRIA really about major oil
and gas interests that run through the country?
The potential for trillions of
dollars of energy revenue in deals that snake through SYRIAN territory may be a
motivating factor for the U.S., RUSSIA, TURKEY and ARAB states in the current SYRIA
crisis.
SYRIA is a key energy transit route
to EUROPE and a number of countries appear to be seeking dominance of the
energy market that runs through SYRIA. In a hearing, Secretary of State John
Kerry said ARAB counties have offered to pay for any U.S. military intervention
in SYRIA.
“With respect to ARAB countries
offering to bear costs and to assess, the answer is profoundly yes,” Kerry
said. “They have. That offer is on the table.”
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla.,
asked for an estimated amount the ARABS might contribute. Kerry replied that they
offered to pay for a full invasion.
“In fact, some of them have said
that if the UNITED STATES is prepared to go do the whole thing the way we’ve
done it previously in other places, they’ll carry that cost,” Kerry said.
“That’s how dedicated they are at this. That’s not in the cards, and nobody’s
talking about it, but they’re talking in serious ways about getting this done.”
SYRIA: KEY ENERGY TRANSIT ROUTE TO EUROPE
Unmentioned are major gas and oil deals that could impact
the economies of QATAR, TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA enormously.
In 2011, SYRIA announced it had
discovered a promising gas field in the city of Homs, which would later see
some of the fiercest battles between SYRIAN President Bashar al-Assad’s forces
and the rebels.
Oil Minister Sufian Allawi told the
state-run SANA news agency that the first wells “were in the Homs governorate
and the flow rate is 400,000 cubic meters per day.”
“The discovery opens new
perspectives in the region of Qalamun, and the SYRIAN company will continue its
drilling,” said Allawi.
BESIDE THE PROSPECT OF ITS OWN GAS FIELD, SYRIA IS ALSO ONE
OF THE MOST STRATEGIC LOCATIONS FOR NATURAL GAS PIPELINES TO FLOW TO EUROPE.
QATAR, home to the world’s largest
gas field along with IRAN, has proposed a gas pipeline from the GULF to TURKEY
that would traverse SYRIA to the MEDITERRANEAN, with the gas then being shipped
to Europe.
However, Assad in 2009 refused to go
along with the plan, instead inking deals with RUSSIA and IRAN.
Background
Information:
SYRIA IS SITE OF THE PROPOSED CONSTRUCTION OF A MASSIVE
UNDERGROUND GAS PIPELINE,
that, if completed, could
drastically undercut the strategic energy power of U.S. ally QATAR and also
would cut TURKEY out of the pipeline flow.
Dubbed the “Islamic pipeline,” the
project may ultimately favor RUSSIA and IRAN against WESTERN energy interests.
Set to open in 2016, IRAN, IRAQ and SYRIA signed a deal in
2010 to construct the 3,480-mile natural gas pipeline connecting IRAN’S South
Pars field to EUROPEAN customers.
IRAN announced the pipeline would
ultimately have the capacity to pump 3.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per
day. The route is planned to pass through IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, the southern LEBANON
territories and also through the MEDITERRANEAN basin with a refinery and
infrastructure to be built in Damascus.
IRAN IRAQ AND SYRIAN GAS PIPELINE PROPOSAL A MAJOR ECONOMIC
THREAT TO TURKEY
A key portion of the pipeline is
concentrated on the SYRIAN ports, which would export directly to EUROPE out of
the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN.
The “Islamic” pipeline is viewed as a major threat to TURKEY,
which has long desired to become the main bridge for natural gas and oil
between the East and the West.
TURKEY, however, is a key player in
the Nabucco and other natural gas pipeline projects, which are being
constructed or in process to be constructed in order to transit natural gas to EUROPE
from the CENTRAL ASIA and CASPIAN regions. The pipeline is set to traverse AZERBAIJAN,
GEORGIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA and HUNGARY, and end in AUSTRIA. TURKEY has
been a key supporter of the rebels fighting Assad’s regime, while QATAR has
reportedly been supplied arms and training to the rebels.
If Assad can be deposed, TURKEY and QATAR
would like the Nabucco pipeline to run through SYRIA.
Background
Information:
SYRIA WILL BE IN SAUDI HANDS
Perhaps in a bid to wean RUSSIA off
of the “Islamic” pipeline, SAUDI ARABIA last month presented a plan to Moscow
in which RUSSIA would reject SYRIA’S president in return for a huge arms deal
and a pledge to boost RUSSIAN influence in the ARAB world.
Agence France-Presse reported
President Vladimir Putin refused the plan in a meeting with SAUDI ARABIA’S intelligence
chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan.
Background
Information:
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| Gulf States Council |
Bandar reportedly proposed that SAUDI
ARABIA buy $15 billion of weapons from RUSSIA and invest “considerably in the
country,” according to AFP.
Demonstrating that oil interests are
clearly at play, AFP reported: “The Saudi prince also reassured Putin that
‘whatever regime comes after’ Assad, it will be ‘completely’ in the SAUDIS’
hands and will not sign any agreement allowing any GULF country to transport
its gas across SYRIA to EUROPE and compete with RUSSIAN gas exports.”
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