GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES

HOW WILL THE NEW WORLD ORDER BE SHAPED?  We have now reached the middle years of the century’s second decade, but the answers to questions about the nature of the world which awaits our children and grandchildren and how the new international political and economic order will take shape remain as obscure as ever. The last century was one of great disasters but also one of almost unbelievable progress in which the present international system was created. Now, however, the inadequacy of the system is becoming more evident each day. It is within this framework that the human race is nearly flopping in its war for survival.   A CHANGING WORLD   The world we live in today is very different from that of the recent past. Inter-governmental organizations like the UNITED NATIONS, the IMF, and the WORLD BANK, products of the Cold War are losing their ability to function and proving themselves inadequate in providing international security and preventing economic and financial crises. The consequence of such a situation is increased competition and disputes between different states, and perhaps even bloody wars. The nation state is being updated. As the UN system loses functionality, a return to the balance of power and to alliances resembling those of the 19th century – like the “Coalition of the Willing” –is gaining credence.  Globalisation, the opening of economies to international markets, leads both to great prosperity and to great imbalances. At the same time it also leads to universal values, such as human rights and freedoms, spreading and being appreciated throughout different countries and continents. The development of communications technology enables ordinary individuals to have easy and swift access to information and thus boosts their power to seek their rights. In many places there is a growing tendency towards protecting the rights of individuals rather than those of states, for liberal democracy to gain more of a social character as it spreads, and for growing environmental consciousness, and there is steadily more acceptance of the primacy of human rights. But in many places racial or social blockages, ethnic and religious impositions, and authoritarian administrations which mercilessly use violence even against their own people all still linger. This situation is the cause of mass uprisings by societies which for centuries have been exposed to injustice, wrongdoing, and contempt. The Middle East and North Africa have witnessed bloody revolutions of this kind, and religious-based extremist organizations that do not hesitate to resort to violence have turned into non-state, political actors influential in international relations.  ABSOLUTE POWER HAS COME TO AN END   The numbers of countries, their populations, standards of living, literacy ratios, volumes of production, and the variety of the things they produce are all increasing. People, goods, money, ideas, values, and technological innovations are all entering into circulation in the world at unbelievable speed. These changes lead to fundamental shifts in people’s mentalities and expectations. The conceptions of political and military power that have prevailed for centuries are now losing their meaning. No single country, no matter how strong it may be, and no single leader, no matter how authoritarian he or she may be, can single-handedly determine the agenda for the world or his or her country or simply do as they please. Non-state actors can flummox even superpowers. No one can take control of the global economy. New energy technologies are overturning traditional geopolitical strategies. Multilateral systems are being compelled to give way to bilateral agreements, balance of power politics, and the influence of regional dynamics. Increasingly, the world can no longer be run from a single decision-making centre or even joint decision-making centres. Conspiracy theories are becoming meaningless.   Therefore, in a world like the one just described, countries which suppose that the old conditions still remain – and which frame their policies in tune with them – are sure to be seriously disappointed. For this reason it is of vital importance that every country makes a sound appraisal of present international circumstances. What is even more important is that each country should contemplate the ways in which the new political, economic, security, and financial order of the 21st century will be shaped, the principles on which governments will rise, and where the world’s centres of gravity will come into being.   FOUR CENTERS OF GRAVITY   If TURKEY is to continue to view itself predominantly as a MIDDLE EASTERN country it will have to consider remaining involved with the problems of this wide region of vast natural resources stretching from AFGHANISTAN to NORTH AFRICA. This implies being involved for many years with one-man regimes, civil wars, and conflicts over ethnicity, religion, and sectarianism. What sort of role can TURKEY play in these lands that are (and will continue to be) rife with lawlessness, poverty, ignorance, and political turmoil. For how much longer will TURKEY be able to continue to open its arms to hundreds of thousands of refugees and asylum-seekers?   One of the centres of gravity in the 21st century world will be the group of ASIAN countries which form the Moscow-Beijing axis exemplified by the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION. This axis is composed of countries which are politically authoritarian and economically liberal. While this axis enables its two giant powers to exert some control over each other, it simultaneously aims to prevent AMERICA and the EU from intruding into their spheres of influence. This implies that neither RUSSIA nor CHINA want to see any changes in the existing order at the UN, an order which gives both of them the right to veto. Consequently, RUSSIA and CHINA prefer to keep the world system dysfunctional. So it is manifest that those countries whose development strategy is not based on paying workers at close to poverty levels will not be compatible with this international axis which does not prioritize human dignity, social justice, or the environment.   NORTH AMERICA will probably still form the most powerful centre of gravity in international affairs. AMERICA will continue to encourage the development of democracy in the world, but in order to help safeguard international security and stability and the creation of a new international economic order, the U.S. will persist in seeking solutions outside multilateral systems deadlocked by vetoes, like the UN and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and rely on the balance of power. The signs are clear how AMERICA is searching for such a new strategy in the way it is now intent on bilateral agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership in economics and the “Coalition of the Willing” in security. The enlarged EUROPEAN UNION constitutes a further centre of gravity. Like a great axis, EUROPE will expand to include the entire continent. It will continue to prioritize several things: shared sovereignty in order to achieve the ideal of an open society and democracy based on a socially-informed, free economy which respects fundamental rights and equality between men and women, multilateral approaches, international law, and international bodies including the UN.   If, on the basis of the above, the world was to be divided into four centres of gravity, then there would be no more possibility for universal values to prevail in international relations, and competition between these four poles or axes might inescapably create conditions which would spell the end for humanity. Consequently countries and leaders which attach value to the continued existence of peace, democracy, and human rights in the world have a common endeavor: to ensure cooperation and solidarity with those in the four centres who share universal values, and also to prevent the world from splitting up into mutually hostile compartments.   The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is under negotiation between the U.S. and the EU, and the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) launched between the U.S. and the ASIA-PACIFIC countries, are of great importance for world peace. They will have the effect of ensuring that these four rival centres will not be pitted against each other but will be economically united. Countries which remain outside this process will be obliged to conform to the outcome of negotiations in which they have not participated.   This article was firstly published in Analist Monthly Journal, in October 2013.