Saturday, 19 October 2013

AFRICAN AND FRANCE, A NEW ERA?




FRANÇAFRIQUE

By Ruby Pratka

When François Hollande's face flashed on their TV screens, the people of Yopougon rose and celebrated as if his presidential victory in France was their own. "It's a big party here," local journalist Stéphane Goué said on election night, from a friend's home in the working-class area of Abidjan, the largest city in COTE D'IVOIRE. "Groups of people have come out into the streets, and outside our house we hear horns honking."

SMOOTH TRANSITION TO INDEPENDENCE

Sahel and North African Hotspots
Goings-on in the Elysée Palace have interested—and affected—WEST AFRICANS for decades. In FRENCH WEST AFRICA, the colonizer was not toppled in an uprising—no riots and protest marches as in BRITISH GHANA, no bloody guerilla wars as in ALGERIA. FRANCE divested itself of its AFRICAN colonies primarily to cut costs, due to the lingering effects of the Second World War and the country's disastrous exit from INDOCHINA in the 1950s. The leaders of the new independent states—MAURITANIA, NIGER, MALI and CHAD in the north, SENEGAL, GUINEA, COTE D'IVOIRE, BENIN BURKINA FASO and CAMEROON in the west, GABON and CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE in the southwest, the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC in the heart of the continent and the tiny foothold of DJIBOUTI on the eastern coast—were uniformly FRENCH-trained, and several had served in the FRENCH army during the Second World War. AFRICA'S first post-Independence leaders had deep personal and professional links with FRANCE. Before taking the reins of their own countries, SENEGAL'S Lépolod Sédar Senghor had been a minister in the FRENCH cabinet, and IVOIRIAN leader Félix Houphouet-Boigny a senator.

FRENCH MILITARY PRESENCE IN AFRICA

FRANCE maintains military bases in GABON, CHAD and DJIBOUTI as well as a smaller military presence in COTE D'IVOIRE and in Bangui, the restive capital of the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC. Defense accords signed with former colonies give the FRENCH government priority in buying raw materials such as uranium. Economic links are also strong; 15 of the young states use currencies that were pegged to the FRENCH franc and are now linked to the Euro.

Background Information: 

FRANCE AND THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
FRANCE reluctant to be left alone to deal with another AFRICAN hotspot – MALI, CHAD and now the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CHAD AND ITS OIL RESERVES
Mounting border conflict with SUDAN may hinder economic development 

FRENCH TELECOMMUNICATION FOOTHOLD ON THE CONTINENT 

French Telecom (Orange)
FRENCH business conglomerates such as BOUYGUES, ORANGE and BOLLORÉ control large portions of the telecommunications and shipping markets in WEST AFRICA, and COTE D'IVOIRE in particular. "The FRENCH government is now an agent of FRENCH business interests in AFRICA," observes André Silver Konan, an IVOIRIAN journalist who covers WEST AFRICAN politics for the continent-wide newsmagazine Jeune Afrique.

It was Houphouet-Boigny, who ruled COTE D'IVOIRE for 30 years with several FRENCH bureaucrats among his cabinet ministers, who coined the term "FRANÇAFRIQUE" to describe the friendly relations between FRANCE and its former AFRICAN empire.

AFRICAN NATIONS INFLUENCE IN FRENCH POLICIES 

Houphouet-Boigny used the word in a positive sense, but it didn't remain that way. In the current FRENCH media, the word evokes a shadowy network of personal friendships and money transfers that influence policy on both sides of the Atlantic. "I give you your budget; I can do what I want," former President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing apparently told Jean-Bédel Bokassa. D'Estaing had helped finance Bokassa's grandiose wedding ceremony—worth one-fourth of the annual budget of the country—before growing exasperated with his protegé's wasteful spending and flirtation with Muammar Gaddafi—and throwing FRENCH military support behind a 1979 student uprising that brought down the Bokassa regime. In FRANCE, political campaigns were financed by oil and even aid money that AFRICAN leaders—particularly longtime GABONESE President Omar Bongo—skim off and send back to Paris, therefore manipulating FRENCH policy in their own way.

MALI troops on parade with French troops
Since François Mitterand in 1990, FRENCH presidents have tried to distance themselves from the "old boys' club" of "occult networks" of FRANÇAFRIQUE. However, it was on Mitterrand's watch that the biggest disaster of FRANÇAFRIQUE occurred: a bungled military intervention in RWANDA—a former BELGIAN colony whose president had worked closely with FRANCE— that allowed some perpetrators of the 1994 genocide to escape across the CONGOLESE border.

PYROMANIAC 

Early in his presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy declared his desire to "break with" FRANÇAFRIQUE. But five years later, many AFRICANS don't see it that way.
Sarkozy "is a pyromaniac," says Chaibou Boubacar, editor-in-chief of Alternative Espaces Citoyens magazine"Based on a survey I did yesterday in the capital [Niamey, NIGER], we're glad to be rid of him." The fires to which Boubacar alludes are the FRENCH interventions in COTE D'IVOIRE and LIBYA.
"Our president [Mahamadou Issoufou] has traveled to Paris 14 times in a little more than a year," adds a resident of Niamey interviewed by Jeune Afrique. "What does he need to go there so often for? FRANCE needs to give us our independence back."

After a close, disputed election in Cote d'Ivoire in fall 2010, socialist incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo was widely believed to have lost but refused to give up power. After several months of slow-burning civil conflict, a FRENCH military intervention resulted in Gbagbo's arrest and installed his opponent, Alassane Ouattara, as president. Ouattara, a former IMF economist, is a friend and ideological ally of Sarkozy. His party, Rassemblement des Republicains, even signed a collaboration accord with Sarkozy's Unis pour un Mouvement Populaire shortly before the election.
"It's true that Hollande is a socialist, like Gbagbo, but people here are just happy to see Ouattara's puppet-master gone," says Goué.

FRANCE'S SUPPORT OF NATO INTERVENTION IN LIBYA,
also left a bad taste in the mouths of many AFRICANS. Former LIBYAN leader Muammar Gaddafi had invested millions in schools, mosques and infrastructure across AFRICA, in the name of Islam and his dream of a "UNITED STATES OF AFRICA."
"Of course [Gaddafi] was a dictator and a terrorist," Stéphane Goué says. "But his assassination was a bad thing for all of us. He had helped us solve a lot of international crises, especially in NIGER and in MALI."

Background Information

LIBYA A FAILED STATE
Volatile SAHEL region

LIBYA THE WILD WEST OF NORTHERN AFRICA
Porous borders turn LIBYA into radical sanctuary

PRO GADDAFI FIGHTERS FLEEING LIBYA BROUGHT THEIR WEAPONS AND SEPERPATIST TO MALI AND TORN IT IN TWO 

In MALI, many blame FRANCE for an escalating internal crisis. Migrants who had worked in COTE D'IVOIRE and pro-Gaddafi fighters fleeing LIBYA brought their desperation, and their weapons, to MALI. Many veterans of the LIBYAN conflict joined the Tuareg separatist militias who have since torn MALI in two.

Background Information: 

EU INVOLVEMENT IN MALI
Why the SAHEL is crucial to EUROPE'S neighborhood – and its security strategy

THE URANIUM EQUATION 

Sarkozy's diplomatic record in AFRICA has not been all bad. He was the first FRENCH president to receive post-genocide RWANDAN leader Paul Kagame, turning the page on nearly 20 years of bad blood. Nor is Hollande everything AFRICA has been looking for. It is not clear that he would have acted any differently given the situations in COTE D'IVOIRE and LIBYA, and he plans to reduce FRENCH reliance on nuclear energy—a disappointment for uranium-exporting NIGER.
However, Sarkozy has alienated many AFRICANS with his occasionally anti-immigrant rhetoric and what some see as a patronizing attitude toward the former empire—epitomized in a 2007 speech in Dakar urging a university audience to forgive the "mistakes" of well-intentioned colonists and calling AFRICAN farmers "peasants."

With Hollande, AFRICAN leaders expect "more partnership and less condescension," in the words of a CONGOLESE government spokesperson. Time will tell if they get it.
Since President Hollande's took over the rains, it appears that FRANCE may be on the road to a new kind of presence in AFRICA. As Sarkozy left office, it became public that his government had renegotiated post-colonial defense accords in AFRICA, removing FRANCE'S prerogative to intervene in case of civil unrest. One of Hollande's first acts was to rename the Ministry of Cooperation (which largely handled relations with the ex-empire from Charles de Gaulle's time) the Ministry of Cooperation and Development. In an interview with Jeune Afrique, Hollande expressed his government's plan to "trust AFRICA to resolve the questions which concern them directly."

While Hollande himself has little experience in AFRICA, his appointed Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius knows Ouattara and has met with the presidents of TOGO, GABON and Benin. Fabius has said he would like to "finish with the coups, the announcements that are not followed up and all the convolutedness of FRANÇAFRIQUE."

Read related articles: 

Wednesday, 16 October 2013

LIBYA: A FAILED STATE





DON’T BE FOOLED BY LIBYA—THIS IS A FAILED STATE

By James Stafford Via Oilprice

Gunmen seized LIBYAN Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from a hotel in central Tripoli, releasing him shortly afterwards, but making it clear that post-Gaddafi LIBYA is a failed state and that the government is incapable of taking full control over its oilfields and export terminals. 

Read related article:

LIBYA - THE WILD WEST OF NORTHERN AFRICA

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/10/libya-wild-west-of-northern-africa.html

While the markets have been responding lately with unfounded optimism over LIBYA, anyone who has been privy to the intelligence briefings and executive reports would know that announcements of progress emanating from the capital Tripoli are hot air. There are too many roving militias who want their piece of LIBYA’S fossil fuels largesse—and the government is impotent.

Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the seizure of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from the Corinthia hotel in central Tripoli.
More to the point, the prime minister was apparently seized by militias linked to LIBYA’S Interior and Defense Ministries, which makes one ask whether he was kidnapped or arrested, or indeed whether it is even worth getting into the semantics.

His arrest was not about oil, specifically, it was in retaliation for the US special-forces capture of a LIBYAN al-Qaeda suspect in Tripoli over the weekend. Militant groups—many of whom control various branches of the impotent government—were angered over the US capture of Abu Anas al-Libi, wanted for the 1998 bombings of US embassies in KENYA and TANZANIA, in which more than 220 people were killed.
Look no further than LIBYA’S National Congress, which was adamant that the US return the captor, which it labeled as a kidnapping and a violation of LIBYA’S national sovereignty. 









OIL CANNOT FLOW IN AN NOT FUNCTIONAL STATE 

Upon his release, Prime Minister Zeidan took to the international media, calling on WESTERN powers to step in—again. In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Zeidan said the country was being used as a base to export weapons across the SAHEL and that “the movement of these weapons endangers neighboring countries too, so there must be international cooperation to stop it.”

Background Information

WHY THE SAHEL IS CRUCIAL TO EUROPE'S NEIGHBORHOOD – AND ITS SECURITY STRATEGY. Read entire article at:


Regardless, the situation should be clear even for those LIBYAN enthusiasts who are under the impression that this is a functioning state. Ali Zeidan’s days are numbered without another direct Western intervention.  
This is the same reason the oil cannot flow as planned. 

VOLATILE SAHEL REGION

The crisis began two years ago with the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi, but in August things took a definitive turn for the worse, with armed groups seizing major oil export terminals and demanding autonomy for the eastern region. (See Background information below) Now the crisis has reached the west where other militant formations ominously charged with guarding the country’s pipelines and oil fields are seeking to profit on the momentum of the strikers and protesters in the east. 

Background Information

According to some analysts this instability could also be triggered deliberately by certain foreign entities who invested heavily in LIBYA’S oil and fossil extraction prior to the military intervention in LIBYA. When coalition forces decided to intervene in LIBYA they did not consider the consequences such intervention would have on the geopolitical landscape. 

With the aim to gain control over Libya’s oil reserves WESTERN coalition forces thought they could outwit CHINA and RUSSIA who also invested heavily in LIBYA’S lucrative oil industry. Lured into voting in favor of the UN resolution which in the end paved the way for Military Intervention in LIBYA, RUSSIA and CHINA expected to receive their fair slice of the “energy cake” once the intervention was concluded, instead they were left out of the equation, losing millions of dollars of investments in LIBYA, for all energy deals RUSSIA and CHINA inked with Muammar Qaddafi prior to the military intervention suddenly became void, leaving the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN the sole benefiters of the entire operation. 
Read also:


The interim government cannot manage this crisis. It’s already been forced to compromise, agreeing earlier in September to a 20% wage hike across the board for civil servants, and including oil security forces in this mix. At the same time, the government has issued warrants for the arrest of strike organizers in the east. 

While the government will not be able to enforce these warrants, the blowback for this still will be severe and will result in a violent upheaval unlike anything else in the past two years. This will reverberate throughout the already volatile Sahel region, threatening security in TUNISIA and ALGERIA most immediately. It is also leading to a tightening of world oil supplies.