AFGHANISTAN AND INDIA

AMID AFGHANISTAN DRAW DOWN: MUSHARRAF WARNS OF PROXY WAR WITH INDIA

The departure of Nato combat forces from AFGHANISTAN could push INDIA and PAKISTAN towards a proxy war in the troubled state, former military ruler General PERVEZ MUSHARRAF said in an interview.

MUSHARRAF, who was a key US ally in its “war on terror”, now lives under tight security in his KARACHI home, facing TALIBAN death threats and a litany of criminal cases. The 71-year-old who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, praised new AFGHAN President ASHRAF GHANI, who made his first official trip to PAKISTAN last week in a bid to reset fractious ties with ISLAMABAD.

PAKISTAN’S support is seen as crucial to AFGHAN peace as US-led forces pull out by the end of this year after 13 years battling the TALIBAN. But the former strongman said calming tension between INDIA and PAKISTAN, running high at the moment after some of the worst cross-border firing in years is key to peace in AFGHANISTAN.

INDIAN INFLUENCE IN AFGHANISTAN

“The danger for PAKISTAN is… the INDIAN influence in AFGHANISTAN,” he said. “That is another danger for the whole region and for PAKISTAN because INDIAN involvement there has an anti-PAKISTAN connotation. They (INDIA) want to create an anti-PAKISTAN AFGHANISTAN.”

INDIA and PAKISTAN both have long accused each other of using proxy forces to try to gain influence in AFGHANISTAN.

“If INDIANS are using some elements of the ethnic entities in AFGHANISTAN, then PAKISTAN will use its own support for ethnic elements, and our ethnic elements are certainly PASHTUNS,” MUSHARRAF said.

“So we are initiating a proxy war in AFGHANISTAN. This must be avoided.”

PAKISTAN SECRETLY BACKING THE TALIBAN? 

MUSHARRAF blamed INDIA for supporting separatist rebels in BALOCHISTAN via training camps in southern AFGHANISTAN, a common accusation in military circles.

Former AFGHAN president HAMID KARZAI routinely accused PAKISTAN of secretly backing the TALIBAN as a hedge against INDIAN influence in his country.

PAKISTAN denies the accusation, though it was one of only three countries to officially recognise the AFGHAN TALIBAN regime, in power from 1996 until 2001 when the US-led invasion resulted in its overthrow.

MUSHARRAF criticised former AFGHAN president HAMID KARZAI for sending officials for training in INDIA and not PAKISTAN, saying “these small things add up to strategic problems”.

GHANI and Prime Minister NAWAZ SHARIF pledged at the weekend to move on from the sniping and bitterness of the KARZAI years, with the AFGHAN leader saying three days of talks had undone 13 years of differences.

Source:  AFP

ISLAMIC STATE AND KHURASAN

AF-PAK A FRONTIER AGAINST IS GOALS

Early in October, six leaders of the TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN (TTP), a terrorist group based in northwestern PAKISTAN, announced their allegiance to the ISLAMIC STATE (IS) and to the self-declared CALIPH, ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI. While this was yet another indication of the steady percolation of IS into terrorist groups based in PAKISTAN, the implications will not be limited to national security alone.

The porous borders, historical narratives, and ideological leanings of the group will ensure that the effects will cut across social,economic, and humanitarian lines, unless there is an understanding of the IS's perspectives towards the region. PAKISTAN is more vulnerable to that risk than other countries.

THE KEYWORD IS KHURASAN

The IS believes that all territories historically ruled by Muslims and later conquered by non-Muslims and/or allegedly non-Islamic forms of governance were wrongfully taken from them; and intend to reclaim it. When the IS unilaterally declared a "CALIPHATE" in SYRIA and IRAQ, it also released a map highlighting the territories it aims to control in future. The present-day territories of AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN form the heart of the historical Greater KHURASAN region highlighted in the map, which includes parts of modern-day IRAN, TURKMENISTAN, UZBEKISTAN, KAZAKHSTAN, TAJIKISTAN and parts of western CHINA. 

THE IS VIEWS THE REGION ONLY AS KHURASAN AND WILL TRY TO REPLICATE PRECISELY WHAT IT HAS DONE IN IRAQ AND SYRIA

Given the IS's specific ideological leaning and approach, today's nation-states are irrelevant for the group. The IS views the region only as KHURASAN and will try to replicate precisely what it has done in IRAQ and SYRIA: to undo modern political borders that separate countries in the region. 

Already, IS propaganda material and declarations of allegiances have begun to crop up in various parts of PAKISTAN, with the latest being wall-chalking supporting the group, not too far from PAKISTANI Prime Minister NAWAZ SHARIF'S LAHORE residence. 

Related Topics:
INCREASED INFILTRATION OF RADICAL ELEMENTS IN THE REGION 
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-caspian-region-future-war-zone.html

However, the IS is not the only group that has its eyes set on the coveted KHURASAN. The new TTP chief, MULLAH FAZLULLAH, who fancies himself as the father of the KHURASAN movement in PAKISTAN, and the relatively unknown group, JAISH-E-KHURASAN, among others in PAKISTAN and AFGHANISTAN, are also reclaiming KHURASAN in their agendas. 

Although the PAKISTANI military launched Operation ZARB-E-AZB to flush out militants from the country's Federally Administered Tribal Areas earlier this year, the result has been to bring closer together the militants with like-minded counterparts in the bordering AFGHAN provinces of KUNAR, KHOST and NURISTAN. 

These provinces and the region along the DURAND Line will become the epicenter of the turf war between these groups and the IS in the attempt to reclaim and control the historical KHURASAN. While it is unlikely that the scale of breakdown of law and order will be on the lines of what is unraveling in IRAQ and SYRIA, other implications will threaten to rip the very fabric of society in AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN and the neighboring CENTRAL ASIAN countries.

SALAFI CATALYST IN INSECURITY

PAKISTAN, though formed as a homeland state for MUSLIMS, has, over the years, witnessed nationwide SUNNI-IZATION. Minority communities are often targeted by violent hardliner SALAFI ISLAMISTS ( Wahhabi ) for their beliefs. In the past several months, non-SUNNI MUSLIMS, especially SHI'ITES and AHMADIYYAS, have been targeted with terror attacks and mass killings. 

Intolerance towards ethno-sectarian minorities can be understood via the attacks on the SHI'ITE HAZARA community in BALOCHISTAN. The PAKISTANI government's indifferent attitude towards ethno-sectarian violence is not just disconcerting in general, but also, on a practical level, detrimental to the country's security as a whole. 

Related Topic:
IS : WINNING FORMULA TO DESTABILIZE RUSSIA’S CAUCASUS AND THE MIDDLE EAST - IS AND THE US INTELLIGENCE SERVICES
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/dagestan-syria-comes-to-russia.html

While sectarian violence in AFGHANISTAN isn't as pronounced as it is in PAKISTAN - especially given how AFGHANISTAN suffers more from ethnic rivalries than sectarianism - any grip of the IS on the country could trigger sectarian violence by terrorist groups competing for legitimacy among their peers and potential sympathizers. PAKISTAN-based groups, in conjunction with counterparts in AFGHANISTAN will try to one up the IS, resulting in human tragedies.

SALAFI ISLAMIZATION 

The ongoing withdrawal of WESTERN forces has brought AFGHANISTAN to a delicate point in time, despite the high competency of the AFGHAN National Security Forces, and this could be exploited by the groups competing to control the region. 

CENTRAL ASIA, which has witnessed increasing SALAFI ISLAMIZATION among its younger generations over the past few years, has also exhibited a growing tendency of intolerance towards SHI'ITES - something that wasn't the case until recently. The attraction towards the status of the ARAB world in CENTRAL ASIAN countries, that takes precedence in comparison to that of the plight of MUSLIMS elsewhere in the world - combined with the 1,300-year old prophecy in the HADITH about a MALAHIM (day of reckoning) in DABIQ, SYRIA, that the IS uses to recruit and gain sympathy among masses - has the potential to destabilize the social fabric of the region. 

Related Topic: 
WORLDWIDE SALAFI TACTICS - FROM BOSNIA TO AF-PAK : FUNDAMENTALIST INDOCTRINATION BY WAHHABI IN MADRASSAS, SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/03/saudi-arabia-and-kashmir.html

NON-ANTI-SHI'ITE POLICIES OF AL-QAEDA

The difference will be noted in AL-QAEDA'S approach towards sectarianism in comparison to the IS approach. AL-QAEDA, thought a violent Islamist terrorist group, never sought the absolute elimination of the SHI'ITES. Conversely, the IS policies are as much about the elimination of SHI'ITES as their goal to expand the borders of the "ISLAMIC CALIPHATE". 

This could again lead to the softening of opinions about AL-QAEDA, among the people. While most residents of the region may not approve of AL-QAEDA, in the face of two evils, the masses will choose the lesser evil; and the numbers will matter because the relatively non-anti-SHI'ITE policies of AL-QAEDA will, comparatively, resonate positively among SHI'ITES, who cumulatively make up a considerable chunk of region's population. 

THE NEW RESOURCES CURSE 

The AFGHANISTAN-TURKMENISTAN border, which is already teeming with SALAFI ISLAMISTS, could become problematic for AFGHANISTAN. The comparatively weak structure of the KYRGYZ governmental systems could easily be taken advantage of to gain a foothold in the country. TAJIK oil fields could become especially accessible to the resource-seeking IS, if the group manages to get an anchor in the eastern region of the country. AFGHANISTAN too is flush with resources - tapping which is mostly only held up because of security problems. 

Essentially, the draw of resources that can fund the CALIPHATE combined with the historical narrative of greater KHURASAN together have the potential to hit the region where it hurts most: in its social fabric. Given the complex multicultural, multi-ethnic and multi-religious nature of western SOUTH ASIA and CENTRAL ASIA, any shift in balance in the social construct would set the region back by decades. 

Related Topic: 
POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND IRAN’S PRIORITIES IN THE REGION
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2013/06/israeli-azerbaijani-alliance-and-iran.html

AFGHAN LINCHPIN

AFGHANISTAN is the linchpin that has the potential to play decision-maker, as the fight for KHURASAN is likely to culminate in a showdown in the country, especially at the AF-PAK border along the DURAND Line. If all regional countries work together in conjunction with KABUL to ensure the stability in AFGHANISTAN post the withdrawal of WESTERN troops, the region will be better guarded to fight the new threat. 

The KHURASAN narrative is extremely central to dealing with this menace, for, the terrorists view the region from the point of view of a single construct, and their planning will be on similar lines. Therefore, if the Khurasan narrative is studied and understood thoroughly, and if planned well, AFGHANISTAN could, together with IRAN and the CENTRAL ASIAN countries, be the torchbearer in halting the eastward advance of the IS. 

By Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy

Mr. Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy  is a research officer and member of the editorial board of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in India 

MIDDLE EAST: EVOLUTION AND TRANSFORMATION OF REGIMES

Middle Eastern "balancing act"

EUROPE AND AMERICA ARE FIGHTING ON ISLAM’S TERRITORY

By Glen Segell via rieas

The SOUTHERN flank of EUROPE is the MEDITERRANEAN Sea. It is a small sea and many countries rely on the freedom of both sea and air traffic for their economy. On the one hand there was optimism that the ARAB Spring would bring greater freedom for the individual in countries on the southern shores of the MEDITERRANEAN Sea. 

There was further optimism that the NORTH AFRICAN countries of TUNISIA, LIBYA and EGYPT would become closer partners in all matters with the countries on the northern shores of the 

MEDITERRANEAN Sea such as GREECE, ITALY and FRANCE. This has not emerged because the waning of the dictatorial regimes in LIBYA, TUNISIA and Egypt have also enabled radical and extremist Islamic groups to emerge and grow in strength. If only the phenomena were restricted to these countries then perhaps the fledgling radical movements could be contained. However they reflect a more wider global phenomena that endangers EUROPEAN and AMERICAN security. 

SUNNI ISLAM

The global phenomena is the dream of SUNNI ISLAM to establish a caliphate state. At the core there is already a state that exhibits all the necessary elements, yet has not been so declared. SAUDI ARABIA hosts SUNNI ISLAM’S holiest sites and practices daily life in accordance with the religious doctrines. Non-state actors have infiltrated and destabilized other states seeking to establish the same daily ISLAMIC life in accordance with the religious doctrines. 

To the west of SAUDI ARABIA, SUDAN has had its ISLAMIC revolution, EGYPT, TUNISIA and LIBYA remain in turmoil after the ARAB Spring, in SOMALIA AL SHEBAB is slowly but surely achieving the same, and in a continuum to WEST AFRICA so is BOKO HAREM in NIGERIA. To the north of SAUDI ARABIA, in IRAQ, SYRIA and LEBANON a struggle is ongoing by the ISLAMIC State in IRAQ and the LEVANT (ISIL or ISIS) and others to achieve the caliphate. If all these were to succeed then there would be a single ISLAMIC SUNNI caliphate state from NIGERIA in WEST AFRICA, to the shores of IRAN in the EAST and from YEMEN to TURKEY on a North-South Axis.

THE FIGHT AGAINST THE ISLAMIC STATE

It is therefore not surprising that 62 countries have signed up to the AMERICAN led coalition against ISIL. Every member of the EUROPEAN UNION has expressed willingness to support the fight against ISIL in different ways. There is the common and single understanding that at threat is EUROPE’S security. At the same time some EUROPEAN and AMERICAN citizens have also joined the other side. In doing so there is a proxy war on ISLAM’S territory. There is apprehension that there may be an increase in radicalism and terrorism on EUROPEAN and AMERICAN territory as a consequence. 

Reshaping the Middle East; One of many versions

The questions at the fore of everyone’s minds is: Who will win and why? Many people around the world have moved from Jesus to Mohammed and Mohammed to Para Braham and Para Braham to Jesus. Consequently is a war against radical ISLAM a just war? Inherent in such questioning is the fundamental ethos of EUROPEAN and AMERICAN military strategy. Does an individual changing his belief or religion construct a dramatic change to the economy of EUROPE and AMERICA. Similarly does it matter if the President of the UNITED STATES is white, black, male or female. 

Would it really make a difference if EUROPE were to become an ISLAMIC Continent ? and Is EUROPE and the UNITED STATES expected to be CHRISTIAN or maybe atheistic for ever.

CAN THE WAR BE WON BY MILITARY MEANS?

No EUROPEAN or AMERICAN leader is willing to broach this matter in a public debate. Rather military forces and diplomatic efforts have been committed to fighting ISIL, 

AL QAEDA, the TALIBAN and others. The war being waged is not on EUROPEAN and AMERICAN soil but on ISLAM’S territory in the name of EUROPEAN and AMERICAN security. It has been declared a just war with just means but will it succeed? 

THE LATEST AIR STRIKES ARE AGAINST ISIL

For 13 years they have been against the TALIBAN. It is unlikely that ISIL will be destroyed by these strikes. Lessons should have been learned from the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is unlikely that the caliphate state evolution in IRAQ will be blocked by air strikes. Indeed it is the dream of many MUSLIMS worldwide “To unify all ISLAMIC countries into a single ISLAMIC state or Caliphate”. The conclusion is a simple one: expect a quasi caliphate in the north and west of IRAQ and the north and east of SYRIA.

THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

It is not just the rise of radical ISLAM that will determine this. When AMERICAN forces withdrew from IRAQ in 2010/2011 it was known that a majority SHIITE government in BAGHDAD could not dictate to minority SUNNI tribal leaders nor control traditional SUNNI towns and cities. It was understood that at the time of AMERICAN withdrawal, prisoners would be released that would include former SUNNI leaders from SADDAM’S BA’ATH party and officers from SADDAM’S army. It was expected that some if not most of these would join up with AL-QAEDA in Iraq. Indeed the taste of power from Saddam’s dictatorial days would one that would be hard to relinquish and not to retake once there was no AMERICAN military in IRAQ. This is exactly what transpired from 2011 onwards. 

The Kurdish equation

Hence and despite this knowledge there was little that could be done to thwart the rise of ISIL in IRAQ. The reconstruction of the new IRAQ Army trained by AMERICAN forces was aimed at defending IRAQ externally and not at internal security. The local police in the traditional SUNNI areas of IRAQ identified and even joined ISIL. At the same time Sunni tribal leaders and the former BA’ATH party officials gained social support 3

sponsored by ISIL ideology and religious consent through local mosques. 

Simultaneously the political SHIITE regime in BAGHDAD was weakened with the onset of the ARAB Spring, growing KURDISH nationalism and IRANIAN intervention. It was no surprise that by the Spring of 2014 ISIL saw the opportunity to play its hand and move armed forces to take major cities such as Mosul, persecute minorities in KURDISH held areas and situate on the outskirts of BAGHDAD. 

THREE STATE SOLUTION 

Air strikes will not remove these from positions of local authority nor diminish their local popular support. The towns and cities of northern and western IRAQ are now in control of ISIL and SUNNI tribal leaders and former BA’ATH party members. Even if every ISIL fighter were to be killed, the SHIITE government in BAGHDAD will not have control of these, without conceding substantial political power to let them into the 

government of IRAQ. This would entail letting radical SUNNI ideologists into the IRAQ government which would only further the territorial expansion of the caliphate. It is not foreseen that the majority SHIITE population of IRAQ would permit this. 

So IRAQ has now been de facto divided into at least two states: southern and eastern IRAQ for the SHIITE and an ISIL caliphate for the SUNNI in the north and the west. Time will tell if the KURDISH northern enclave can survive. 

CONCLUSIONS FOR EUROPE AND AMERICA

Since EUROPE and AMERICAN leaders see EUROPEAN and American security at stake the foremost strategy should not be air strikes against targets on Islam’s territory. If EUROPE and AMERICA wish to remain CHRISTIAN or atheistic then the strategy and tactics should revolve around information and psychological operations. The goal should be to diminish popular support for radical ISLAM and its non-state actors. 

History is a major help in providing examples of the evolution and transformation of regimes away from their radical and extremist stances to one of coexistence and participation in the international system. This is both post-Colonial and post-Cold War as well as MIDDLE EASTERN. Some examples are the MAU-MAU of KENYA, the end of SOUTH AFRICAN Apartheid, the resolution in the BALKANS and even SHIITE IRAN that has 

accommodated western styles amongst the general population. Perhaps radical SUNNI ISLAM can also do so. No-one is suggesting that individuals should change their beliefs 

or religions. Rather that radical movements outside of the international system should become political movements within the state system and recognize and respect other religions and the sovereignty of nation states. 

By Dr. Glen Segell
(Fellow – The Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies, University of Haifa, Israel)

OVERCOMING ISIS: TRANSCENDING SECTARIAN RIVALRIES

ISLAMIC STATE BELIEVES THAT PROVOKING [SHI'ITE] IRAN INTO COMBAT, THE LARGELY SUNNI STATES FROM MOROCCO TO TURKEY, PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA WILL JOIN FORCES WITH IT

By Laurelle Atkinson

"We will conduct a systemic air campaign," U.S. President BARACK OBAMA said in his latest speech on defeating ISIS. "What we can do is systematically roll back the organization, shrink the territory where they're operating, decimate its ranks, cut off its sources of support in terms of funding and equipment, and have the threat methodically and relentlessly reduced," he said.

Central to restoring political stability and defeating ISIS forces could well be both the military and political forces of President BASHAR AL-ASSAD'S SYRIAN government. ASSAD, after all, has powerful regional allies. And ISIS is a regional as well as international threat that requires strong systematic accord among states of the region to defeat.

THE ISIS COMPOSITION IS INTERTWINED WITH THE SYRIAN CONFLICT,

where rebels are still working to oust ASSAD. As with IRAQ, the militant rebellion against ASSAD comprises thousands of disaffected SUNNIS. "The war [in SYRIA] gave them a lot of access to heavy weaponry," analyst MICHAEL KNIGHTS wrote recently on ISIS. The chaos of local forces fighting local forces allowed ISIS to secure SYRIAN territory, just as it secured territory in IRAQ. Hundreds of IRAQI troops are deserting each month, many of them swelling the ranks of ISIS. Analysts are referring to these deserters as well equipped and trained fighting forces—trained and armed, that is, by the WEST, which has flooded the region with weaponry.

Arming locals to fight a political problem has proved disastrous. One reason is that the political chaos of IRAQ and SYRIA embodies profound religious undertones, and dealing with it through sectarian rivalries has manifested greater warfare, radicalized locals, fomented animus and created massive political insecurity. Islamic State is a grotesque outgrowth of that—of prolonged MIDDLE EASTERN warfare among locals—and the political consequences for the MIDDLE EAST are grave.

ANY U.S. COOPERATION WITH IRAN AND SYRIA WOULD IMMEDIATELY EXPLODE THE COALITION NEEDED WITH SUNNI FORCES

"ISIS had so far consistently focused on what militants call 'the near enemy'—leaders of MUSLIM countries like BASHAR AL-ASSAD of SYRIA—and not 'the far enemy' of the UNITED STATES and EUROPE," FAWAZ GERGES, professor at the LONDON School of Economics, notes. Their appeal isn't simply military. Their cause has benefited from the sectarian policies of the BAGHDAD and DAMASCUS governments.

Arab League 

In resolving the crises of SYRIA and IRAQ, WESTERN strategists appear to give only lip service to geopolitical institutions of the region. Even with the turbulent ARAB Spring, key frameworks exist in the MIDDLE EAST with the power to transcend ancient religious rivalries, such as the ARAB LEAGUE and the SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION.

When asked why the UNITED STATES can't work with the ASSAD regime and IRAN against Islamic State, former U.S. Ambassador to IRAQ JAMES JEFFREY said, "Any U.S. cooperation with these countries would immediately explode the coalition needed with SUNNI forces." Relying on sectarian foment to realize political stability is akin to fighting fire with fire. The UNITED STATES is again basing a strategy to deal with a radicalized militia force in the MIDDLE EAST on sectarian religious rivalries rather than progressive accord.

ISIS THRIVES ON WARFARE

The ARAB LEAGUE, the COOPERATION COUNCIL for the ARAB states of the GULF, the NON ALIGNED MOVEMENT, THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION—these are powerful political frameworks already in place that transcend sectarian rivalries. And they are being overlooked as a means to realize political strength in IRAQ and SYRIA by NATO and the WEST. When asked why the region's states can't deal with the Islamic State, JEFFREY replied, "These nations are not united, have different political approaches and require leadership that can only come from the WEST." The very existence of these organisations and the strength of the ISIS caliphate movement would argue otherwise.

Realizing political stability in the MIDDLE EAST is not necessarily a question of arming locals to fight for it. Overcoming radicalized militias to the tune of ISIS would take more than fostering more warfare via local tribes. ISIS thrives on warfare. ISIS garners weapons, fighters and momentum via warfare. JAMES CARAFANO, vice president for FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY STUDIES at the HERITAGE FOUNDATION in WASHINGTON, D.C., says ISIS armaments are predominantly a mix of SOVIET tanks, advanced U.S. systems and black-market arms. "They've apparently taken enough U.S. weapons from the IRAQI military in MOSUL to put them in good shape for a long time," Carafano said. ISIS now has rocket launchers and U.S.-made M60 machine guns that go from CROATIA through SAUDI ARABIA into SYRIA and ISIS.

"ISIS appears to have learned from many of the mistakes made by terrorists in the last 20 years," CARAFANO added, and has used that to train its 10,000-strong militia. "You name it—finances, social networking, arms trafficking, recruiting—they are reading the terrorist playbook, and smart military strategy is certainly part of that."

FOMENTING A SECTARIAN BACKLASH COULD PLAY RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF ISIS

Strengthening the regional framework, however, would enable defense regulation, collective security and economic growth, all of which transcend sectarianism. Regional bodies engender broader political accord. Such accord can empower nascent state systems, as in IRAQ, because of the dynamics of a greater political framework. Look at how ASEAN and the EUROPEAN UNION have lifted state systems in the SOUTH PACIFIC and EUROPE. Yet the latest strategy shaping up from NATO to deal with ISIS augurs more of the same—arming locals to fight the problem, this time SUNNI MUSLIMS. There is no guarantee of loyalty, much less political stability.

"I am not ready to send troops from the south to liberate NENEVEH or ANBAR or any other areas. I want the people of NINEVEH to liberate their area … and ANBAR'S people to liberate their areas, and they will be backed by the elite forces," IRAQ'S newly appointed Prime Minister HAIDER AL-ABADI said at a press conference in BAGHDAD recently. He is ready to support SUNNI tribes willing to liberate their own towns. Fomenting a sectarian backlash could play right into the hands of ISIS.

"Islamic State believes that if it can provoke [SHI'ITE] IRAN into combat, the largely SUNNI states from MOROCCO to TURKEY, PAKISTAN and SAUDI ARABIA will join forces with it," JEFFREY said. More ominously, if ISIS manages to manifest great warfare, "this could lead to an even greater threat to regional stability, draw in U.S. allies TURKEY and ISRAEL, and encourage IRAN and other states to seek nuclear weapons."

Empowering SUNNIS politically should involve progressive accord with SHIAS through intra-state commerce and regulation. All-inclusive political representation is required to achieve collective security and, most importantly, the defense regulation that is crucial for dis-empowering ISIS.

Already states in the MIDDLE EAST are forging ties to fight against ISIS. Senior IRANIAN and SAUDI officials met for the first time in a year last week, a meeting on ISIS that the IRANIAN Deputy Foreign Minister AMIR ABDOLLAHIAN described as "positive and constructive." Through SAUDI and IRANIAN assistance it could well be possible to form more inclusive governments in both SYRIA and IRAQ that transcend sectarianism. At the same time, strengthening regional ties would enable regulation of armament channels utilized by ISIS.

EU IN TURMOIL?

BELGIAN PROTESTERS CLASH WITH POLICE OVER PENSIONS AND PAY

Europe  - 06 November 2014 

Source: BBC

Riot police have fired tear gas and water cannon during clashes with demonstrators as at least 100,000 people marched through Brussels in the first mass protests against government austerity measures.

Protesters overturned cars and threw paving stones and fireworks during the protest against economic reforms that will extend the pension age, contain wages and cut public services.

The government says the austerity measures are essential to keep the budget deficit within European Union constraints. Via BBC

On 6 August 2011 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote: 

Saturday, 6 August 2011

Another New World Order ?

Austerity and the Destruction of Democracy in Europe

Implementing austerity measures on PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) countries as envisioned by the IMF, Germany and France will lead to public uprising and undermine democracy. By tightening the screw on common people the establishment will foster radicalism and racism which will play in the hands of the far right as well as the far left political movements who could grab the opportunity to tumble democratic values of Europe by implementing autocratic political systems.

When the economy is in turmoil and unable to recover, in most cases it ends in war. Europe is one of the few places in the world which has not had an armed conflict for more than 60 years. Statistically speaking it is overdue in order to “reboot” its economy and the signs of this to happen are imminent. Historically speaking, it was not rare that European countries waged wars among themselves because of cultural and political differences, thus one cannot rule out that history does not repeat itself and pave the foundation for another NEW WORLD ORDER.  

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/08/another-new-world-order.html

IS - SAUDI ARABIA, SYRIA AND THE USA

THE SECRET  SAUDI-US DEAL ON SYRIA

The details are emerging of a new secret and quite stupid SAUDI-US deal on SYRIA and the so-called IS. It involves oil and gas control of the entire region and the weakening of RUSSIA and IRAN by SAUDI ARABIAN flooding the world market with cheap oil. Details were concluded in the September meeting by US Secretary of State JOHN KERRY and the SAUDI King. The unintended consequence will be to push RUSSIA even faster to turn east to CHINA and EURASIA.

THE KERRY-ABDULLAH SECRET DEAL

One of the weirdest anomalies of the recent NATO bombing campaign, allegedly against the ISIS or IS or ISIL or Daash, depending on your preference, is the fact that with major war raging in the world’s richest oil region, the price of crude oil has been dropping, dramatically so. Since June when ISIS suddenly captured the oil-rich region of IRAQ around MOSUL and KIRKUK, the benchmark Brent price of crude oil dropped some 20% from $112 to about $88. World daily demand for oil has not dropped by 20% however. CHINA oil demand has not fallen 20% nor has US domestic shale oil stock risen by 21%.

OIL GAS PIPELINE WAR

What has happened is that the long-time US ally inside OPEC, the kingdom of SAUDI ARABIA, has been flooding the market with deep discounted oil, triggering a price war within OPEC, with IRAN following suit and panic selling short in oil futures markets. The SAUDIS are targeting sales to ASIA for the discounts and In particular, its major ASIAN customer, CHINA where it is reportedly offering its crude for a mere $50 to $60 a barrel rather than the earlier price of around $100. [1] That SAUDI financial discounting operation in turn is by all appearance being coordinated with a US Treasury financial warfare operation, via its Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, in cooperation with a handful of inside players on WALL STREET who control oil derivatives trading. The result is a market panic that is gaining momentum daily. CHINA is quite happy to buy the cheap oil, but her close allies, RUSSIA and IRAN, are being hit severely.

THE DEAL:  PRESSURE ON IRAN ON HER NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND ON RUSSIA TO END HER SUPPORT FOR BASHAR AL-ASSAD IN SYRIA

According to RASHID ABANMY, President of the RIYADH-BASED SAUDI ARABIA Oil Policies and Strategic Expectations Center, the dramatic price collapse is being deliberately caused by the SAUDIS, OPEC’s largest producer. The public reason claimed is to gain new markets in a global market of weakening oil demand. The real reason, according to ABANMY, is to put pressure on IRAN on her nuclear program, and on RUSSIA to end her support for BASHAR AL-ASSAD in SYRIA.[2]

Background Information: 

REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA WOULD DIMINISH RUSSIA’S IMPORTANCE AS GAS EXPORTER AS WELL AS NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/strait-of-hormuz-and-syria.html

SAUDIA ARABIA AND TURKEY SEEM TO HAVE A VERY STRONG GEO- STRATEGICALLY INTEREST IN SYRIA 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/11/food-for-thought.html

When combined with the financial losses of RUSSIAN state natural gas sales to UKRAINE and prospects of a US-instigated cutoff of the transit of RUSSIAN gas to the huge EU market this winter as EU stockpiles become low, the pressure on oil prices hits MOSCOW doubly. More than 50% of RUSSIAN state revenue comes from its export sales of oil and gas.

THE US-SAUDI OIL PRICE MANIPULATION IS AIMED AT DESTABILIZING SEVERAL STRONG OPPONENTS OF US GLOBALIST POLICIES. 

Targets include IRAN and SYRIA, both allies of RUSSIA in opposing a US sole Superpower. The principal target, however, is PUTIN’S RUSSIA, the single greatest threat today to that Superpower hegemony. The strategy is similar to what the US did with SAUDI ARABIA in 1986 when they flooded the world with SAUDI oil, collapsing the price to below $10 a barrel and destroying the economy of then-SOVIET ally, SADDAM HUSSEIN in IRAQ and, ultimately, of the SOVIET economy, paving the way for the fall of the SOVIET UNION. 

Today, the hope is that a collapse of RUSSIAN oil revenues, combined with select pin-prick sanctions designed by the US Treasury’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence will dramatically weaken PUTIN’S enormous domestic support and create conditions for his ultimate overthrow. It is doomed to fail for many reasons, not the least, because PUTIN’S RUSSIA has taken major strategic steps together with CHINA and other nations to lessen its dependence on the WEST. In fact the oil weapon is accelerating recent RUSSIAN moves to focus its economic power on national interests and lessen dependence on the Dollar system. If the dollar ceases being the currency of world trade, especially oil trade, the US Treasury faces financial catastrophe. For this reason, the KERRY-ABDULLAH oil war a seems a rather ill fated tactic.

CONTROL OF THE EMERGING EU NATURAL GAS MARKET

On September 11, US Secretary of State KERRY met SAUDI King ABDULLAH at his palace on the Red Sea. The King invited former head of SAUDI intelligence, Prince BANDAR to attend. There a deal was hammered out which saw SAUDI support for the SYRIAN airstrikes against ISIS on condition WASHINGTON backed the SAUDIS in toppling ASSAD, a firm ally of RUSSIA and de facto of IRAN and an obstacle to SAUDI and UAE plans to control the emerging EU natural gas market and destroy RUSSIA’S lucrative EU trade. A report in the WALL STREET Journal noted there had been “months of behind-the-scenes work by the US and ARAB leaders, who agreed on the need to cooperate against Islamic State, but not how or when. The process gave the SAUDIS leverage to extract a fresh US commitment to beef up training for rebels fighting Mr. ASSAD, whose demise the SAUDIS still see as a top priority.” [3]

SUNNI VERSUS SHI'ITE

For the SAUDIS the war is between two competing age-old vectors of ISLAM. SAUDI ARABIA, home to the sacred cities of MECCA and MEDINA, claims de facto supremacy in the ISLAMIC world of SUNNI ISLAM. The SAUDI SUNNI form is ultra-conservative WAHHABISM, named for an 18th Century Bedouin Islamic fundamentalist or SALAFIST named MUHAMMAD IBN ABD AL-WAHHA. The TALIBAN derive from WAHHABISM with the aid of SAUDI-financed religious instruction.

Background Information: 

THE THEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL PACT BETWEEN THE SAUD CLAN AND THE WAHHABISTS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/08/saudi-arabia-origin-of-wahhabism.html

The GULF EMIRATES and KUWAIT also adhere to the SUNNI WAHHABISM of the SAUDIS, as does the Emir of QATAR. IRAN on the other hand historically is the heart of the smaller branch of ISLAM, the SHI’ITE. IRAQ’S population is some 61% majority SHI’ITE. SYRIA’S President, BASHAR AL-ASSAD is a member of a satellite of the SHI’ITE branch known as ALAWITE. Where as Turkey has some 23% of Alevis Muslim.  

Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: 

It should be notes that many times Alawites are confused with Alevis from TURKEY. For more information see: Alawites in Syria and Alevis in Turkey: Crucial Differences

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey

THE ALAWITES AND ISRAEL

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-alawites-and-israel.html

To complicate the picture more, across a bridge from SAUDI ARABIA sits the tiny island country, BAHRAIN where as many as 75% of the population is SHI’ITE but the ruling AL-KHALIFA family is SUNNI and firmly tied to SAUDI ARABIA. Moreover, the richest SAUDI oil region is dominated by SHI’ITE Muslims who work the oil installations of RAS TANURA.

Background Information: 

TURKEY SIDES EXCLUSIVELY WITH SUNNI REBELS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.html

These historic fault lines inside ISLAM which lay dormant, were brought into a state of open warfare with the launching of the US State Department and CIA’s Islamic Holy War, otherwise known as the Arab Spring. WASHINGTON neo-conservatives embedded inside the OBAMA Administration in a form of “Deep State” secret network, and their allied media such as the WASHINGTON POST, advocated US covert backing of a pet CIA project known as the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. As  detail in the book, Amerikas’ Heiliger Krieg, the CIA had cultivated ties to the terrorist MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD death cult since the early 1950’s.

NATURAL GAS HAS BECOME THE FAVORED “CLEAN ENERGY” SOURCE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY AND THE EU IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST GROWTH MARKET FOR GAS

Now if we map the resources of known natural gas reserves in the entire PERSIAN GULF region, the motives of the SAUDI-led QATAR and UAE in financing with billions of dollars the opposition to ASSAD, including the SUNNI ISIS, becomes clearer. Natural gas has become the favored “clean energy” source for the 21st Century and the EU is the world’s largest growth market for gas, a major reason WASHINGTON wants to break the GAZPROM-EU supply dependency to weaken RUSSIA and keep control over the EU via loyal proxies like QATAR.

The world’s largest known natural gas reservoir sits in the middle of the PERSIAN GULF straddling part in the territorial waters of QATAR and part in IRAN. The IRANIAN part is called NORTH PARS. In 2006 CHINA’S state-owned CNOOC signed an agreement with IRAN to develop NORTH PARS and build LNG infrastructure to bring the gas to CHINA.[4]

Background Information: 

TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html

NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO  TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE? 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html

THE QATAR SIDE OF THE PERSIAN GULF, CALLED NORTH FIELD, CONTAINS THE WORLD’S THIRD LARGEST KNOWN NATURAL GAS RESERVES BEHIND RUSSIA AND IRAN.

In July 2011, the governments of SYRIA, IRAN and IRAQ signed an historic gas pipeline energy agreement which went largely unnoticed in the midst of the NATO-SAUDI-QATARI war to remove ASSAD. The pipeline, envisioned to cost $10 billion and take three years to complete, would run from the IRANIAN Port ASSALOUYEH near the SOUTH PARS gas field in the PERSIAN GULF, to DAMASCUS in SYRIA via IRAQ territory. The agreement would make SYRIA the center of assembly and production in conjunction with the reserves of LEBANON. 

Background Information: 

Iran, Iraq, Syria agree to establish Islamic gas pipeline

Mon 25 July 2011 

http://www.news.az/articles/iran/41175

This is a geopolitical strategic space that geographically opens for the first time, extending from IRAN to IRAQ, SYRIA and LEBANON.[5] As Asia Times correspondent Pepe Escobar put it, “The IRAN-IRAQ-SYRIA pipeline – if it’s ever built – would solidify a predominantly SHI’ITE axis through an economic, steel umbilical cord.”[6]

Shortly after signing with IRAN and IRAQ, on August 16, 2011, BASHAR AL-ASSAD’S SYRIAN Ministry of Oil announced the discovery of a gas well in the Area of QARAH in the Central Region of SYRIA near HOMS. GAZPROM, with ASSAD in power, would be a major investor or operator of the new gas fields in SYRIA. [7] IRAN ultimately plans to extend the pipeline from DAMASCUS to LEBANON’S MEDITERRANEAN port where it would be delivered to the huge EU market. SYRIAN would buy IRANIAN gas along with a current IRAQI agreement to buy IRANIAN gas from IRAN’S part of SOUTH PARS field.[8]

Background Information: 

MIDDLE EAST: IS IT REALLY ALL ABOUT OIL AND GAS?

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com/2012/12/usa-china-and-gulf-states-who-should-be.html

QATAR, today the world’s largest exporter of LNG, largely to ASIA, wants the same EU market that IRAN and SYRIA eye. For that, they would build pipelines to the MEDITERRANEAN. Here is where getting rid of the pro-IRAN ASSAD is essential. 

IRAN-IRAQ-SYRIA GAS PIPELINE AGREEMENT OF 2011 IGNITED FULL-SCALE SAUDI AND QATARI ASSAULT ON ASSAD

In 2009 Qatar approached BASHAR AL-ASSAD to propose construction of a gas pipeline from QATAR’S north Field through SYRIA on to Turkey and to the EU. ASSAD refused, citing SYRIA’S long friendly relations with RUSSIA and GAZPROM. That refusal combined with the IRAN-IRAQ-SYRIA gas pipeline agreement in 2011 ignited the full-scale SAUDI and QATARI assault on ASSAD’S power, financing AL QAEDA terrorists, recruits of JIHADIST fanatics willing to kill ALAWITE and SHI’ITE “infidels” for $100 a month and a Kalishnikov. 

The Washington neo-conservative warhawks in and around the OBAMA White House, were cheering from the bleachers as SYRIA went up in flames after spring 2011.

CONTROL OF ENERGY PIPELINES - KEY US OBJECTIVE

Today the US-backed wars in UKRAINE and in SYRIA are but two fronts in the same strategic war to cripple RUSSIA and CHINA and to rupture any EURASIAN counter-pole to a US-controlled New World Order. In each, control of energy pipelines, this time primarily of natural gas pipelines—from RUSSIA to the EU via UKRAINE and from IRAN and SYRIA to the EU via SYRIA—is the strategic goal. The true aim of the US backed ISIS is to give the pretext for bombing ASSAD’S vital grain silos and oil refineries to cripple the economy in preparation for a “GHADDAFI-”style elimination of RUSSIA and CHINA and IRAN-ally BASHAR AL-ASSAD.

Background Information: 

UNLIKE IN LIBYA, RUSSIA AND CHINA THIS TIME ARROUND WILL NOT TOLERATE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE SYRIAN EQUATION AND ENERGY GAME

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html

Comment by GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING:

PAYBACK TIME FOR BEING LEFT OUT OF THE LIBYAN EQUATION 

As mentioned numerous times on this Blog, RUSSIA and CHINA felt that they were left out of the equation regarding the LIBYAN operation instigated by the USA, FRANCE and BRITAIN. CHINA and RUSSIA invested heavily in LIBYA prior to the toppling of the LIBYAN regime, only to find out that they were kept completely out of the picture regarding the true intentions the Western coalition force had in mind with LIBYA once the regime was removed. 

Subsequently RUSSIA and CHINA learned their lesson and thus would not make the same mistake regarding SYRIA, permitting LIBYAN style intervention by WESTERN and GULF STATES coalition forces. No matter that SYRIA lacks oil reserves or other natural resources worth fighting over, their veto was more of a symbolic gesture telling Western and Gulf States coalition forces: that’s how far you can go this time around, but no further. 

THE SILK ROAD 

In a narrow sense, as WASHINGTON neo-conservatives see it, who controls SYRIA could control the MIDDLE EAST. And from SYRIA, gateway to ASIA, he will hold the key to Russia House, as well as that of CHINA via the SILK ROAD.

Religious wars have historically been the most savage of all wars and this one is no exception, especially when trillions of dollars in oil and gas revenues are at stake. Why is the secret KERRY-ABDULLAH deal on SYRIA reached on September 11? Because the brilliant tacticians in WASHINGTON and RIYADH and DOHA and to an extent in ANKARA are unable to look at the interconnectedness of all the dis-order and destruction they foment, to look beyond their visions of control of the oil and gas flows as the basis of their illegitimate power. 

Background Information: 

TURKEYS ENERGY GAMBLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html

By William Engdahl 

Notes:
[1] M. Rochan, Crude Oil Drops Amid Global Demand Concerns, IB Times, October 11, 2014     http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/crude-oil-drops-amid-global-demand-concerns-1469524
[2] Nihan Cabbaroglu, Saudi Arabia to pressure Russia Iran with price of oil, 10 October 2014, Turkish Anadolu Agency, http://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/402343–saudi-arabia-to-pressure-russia-iran-with-price-of-oil
[3] Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, Deal With Saudis Paved Way for Syrian Airstrikes: Talks With Saudi Arabia Were Linchpin in U.S. Efforts to Get Arab States Into Fight Against Islamic State, Wall Street Journal, September. 24, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/deal-with-saudis-paved-way-for-syrian-airstrikes-1411605329?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
[4] POGC, North Pars Gas Field, Pars Oil and Gas Company website, http://www.pogc.ir/NorthParsGasField/tabid/155/Default.aspx
[5] Imad Fawzi Shueibi , War Over Gas–Struggle over the Middle East: Gas Ranks First, 17 April, 2012. http://www.voltairenet.org/article173718.html
[6] Pepe Escobar, Why Qatar Wants to Invade Syria, Asia Times, September 27, 2012,
[7] Ibid.
[8] F. William Engdahl, Syria Turkey Israel and the Greater Middle East Energy War, Global Research, October 11, 2012,

TURKEY, A SHATTERED DREAM

ERDOGAN'S BOOK OF DEFEAT

In the entire MIDDLE EAST, TURKEY now has only two allies: QATAR, which looks more like a rich, family-owned gas station than a state; and Hamas, a terrorist organization.

TUNISIA was the final chapter in ERDOGAN'S book of defeat. NEO-OTTOMANISM was a childish dream. It is, now, a "sealed" childish dream.

REPLACE THE SHIA-CONTROLLED SYRIAN REGIME OF BASHAR AL-ASSAD WITH A TURKEY-FRIENDLY SUNNI RULER

Shortly after the ARAB Spring rocked several capitals in the MIDDLE EAST, the TURKS devised a plan that would enable their country to emerge as the new OTTOMAN EMPIRE. While deliberately and systematically antagonizing ISRAEL, ANKARA would: replace the Shia-controlled SYRIAN regime of BASHAR AL-ASSAD with a TURKEY-friendly SUNNI ruler; support the SUNNI in IRAQ and LEBANON and boost their political influence; support HAMAS in the Palestinian territories and provoke it to violence against ISRAEL; and make sure that the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD or their various brethren rule EGYPT, TUNISIA and LIBYA. SAUDIS were already "our Muslim brothers." Eventually, all former OTTOMAN LANDS would produce governments subservient to the emerging TURKISH EMPIRE.

Related articles at : 

TURKEY : FROM A ZERO PROBLEMS POLICY (WITH NEIGHBORS) TO ZERO NEIGHBORS

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2014/10/turkeys-evil-triumvirate-assad-regime.html

TURKEY PUSHES CROSSROADS POLITICS
http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2013/11/turkey-on-move.html

Nearly four years later, SYRIA'S ASSAD is comfortably sitting in his presidential palace in DAMASCUS and possibly laughing at the mess the TURKS created by supporting SYRIA'S jihadists. These jihadists have only wreaked havoc along TURKEY'S nearly 900-mile-long borders with both SYRIA and IRAQ.

The SHIA in IRAQ are as powerful as before, and remain obedient to TURKEY'S regional sectarian rival, IRAN. 

The SHIA in LEBANON -- where Turks are a high-value currency on the hostage market -- are increasingly hostile to TURKEY.

No one knows who rules LIBYA after the downfall of COLONEL QADDAFI, but none of the warring factions want any TURKS meddling in the former OTTOMAN colony.

Meanwhile, a coup in July 2013 toppled the TURKS' most-trusted regional ally, EGYPT'S then president, MOHAMED MORSI. Today, not only the TURKS but also TURKISH products -- including even soap operas -- are unwanted in EGYPT.

With the downfall -- ironically, instead of ASSAD -- of their ISLAMIST allies in the region, the TURKS recently discreetly moved to win back EGYPT, the most populous MUSLIM nation in the region.

LOOKING FOR ALLIES

TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER MEVLUT CAVUSOGLU asked to meet with his EGYPTIAN counterpart, SAMEH HASSAN SHORKY SELIM, on the sidelines of the UN summit in September. The EGYPTIAN minister abruptly cancelled the meeting, citing TURKISH PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN'S "insulting words about [EGYPTIAN] President ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI." A statement from the EGYPTIAN foreign ministry called ERDOGAN'S words "lies and fabrication."

TURKEYS POLICIES AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN THE REGION 

More recently, CAIRO announced that it would not renew a three-year transit trade agreement with TURKEY. The decision indicates a further worsening of bilateral ties, which had been downgraded, as in the instance of ISRAEL, to the level of chargé d'affaires. The transit trade agreement, signed in 2012 when MORSI was in power, had facilitated TURKISH exports to AFRICAN nations and the GULF through EGYPT'S mainland, via EGYPTIAN ports. TURKISH companies previously sent their cargo to GULF and AFRICAN customers through SYRIA, when relations with SYRIA were normal. After ERDOGAN chose cold war with SYRIA, the SYRIAN route was closed to the TURKS. The TURKS then signed the transit deal with EGYPT to use their ports and mainland as the alternative route. Now that EGYPT will terminate this agreement, TURKISH companies will be deprived of an easy route to GULF and AFRICAN customers.

Ironically, only six weeks before GENERAL AL-SISI ousted EGYPT'S ISLAMIST PRESIDENT MORSI, TURKEY had granted EGYPT a $250 million loan to finance TURKISH-EGYPTIAN joint defense projects. The loan, the first of its kind, was intended to boost defense cooperation and TURKISH exports of defense equipment to EGYPT. At that time, TURKEY was hoping to sell EGYPT scores of TURKISH-made drones, tactical naval boats and helicopters.

EGYPT AND SAUDI ARABIA: LOBBYING AGAINST TURKEY ?

EGYPT'S hostile move was a "shock" to ANKARA, but only to ANKARA. "Apparently everyone dealing with the EGYPTIANS knew this was coming, except the TURKS," said one EU ambassador in ANKARA.

It was not a secret that EGYPT and the TURKS' "Muslim brothers, SAUDI ARABIA" aggressively lobbied against TURKEY'S failed bid in September to win the seat of the non-permanent member of the UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL. The EU ambassador said: "There may be further EGYPTIAN moves to retaliate against TURKISH hostilities. After SYRIA, IRAQ, SAUDI ARABIA, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, LEBANON and ISRAEL, TURKEY has completely lost EGYPT."

THE TUNISIAN EQUATION  

That mishap left TURKEY'S Islamists with one ideological ally in the former OTTOMAN LANDS: TUNISIA, where the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD-inspired ENNAHDA party was in a coalition government -- until this past weekend.

ENNAHDA, the first ISLAMIST movement to secure power after the 2011 ARAB Spring revolts, conceded defeat in elections that are expected to make its main secular rival, NIDAA TOUNES party, the strongest force in parliament.

This defeat is a huge setback for ERDOGAN'S TUNISIAN ideological allies, who had headed a coalition government with two non-religious partners for more than two years.

TUNISIA was the final chapter in ERDOGAN'S book of defeat. NEO-OTTOMANISM was a childish dream. It is, now, a "sealed" childish dream.

TURKEYS NEW WORLD ORDER 

In the entire MIDDLE EAST, TURKEY now has only two allies: QATAR, which looks more like a rich, family-owned gas station than a state; and Hamas, a terrorist organization. But TURKEY has a rich menu of hostilities: IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, LEBANON, (discreetly) Jordan, Israel, the UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, EGYPT, (as always) CYPRUS, (now) TUNISIA, (also discreetly) MOROCCO and ALGERIA, and (most warring factions of) LIBYA.

In an April 2012 speech, then Foreign Minister DAVUTOGLU defined TURKEY'S policy goal as: 

"On the historic march of our holy nation, the AK Party signals the birth of a global power and the mission for a new world order. This is the centenary of our exit from the MIDDLE EAST... whatever we lost between 1911 and 1923, whatever lands we withdrew from, from 2011 to 2023 we shall once again meet our brothers in those lands. This is a ... historic mission."

That was a not-so-covert message of a strategic goal of reviving the Empire. Only nine years before the deadline to "meet our brothers" and the birth of TURKEY as "a global power with a mission to build a new world order," TURKEY looks rather dramatically isolated.

By Burak Bekdil, 

Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.